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I actually think the opposite, even if this study doesn’t appear to support it. Socialism is a major factor why people have fewer kids. If the state is going t

by andy99 1y ago

I actually think the opposite, even if this study doesn’t appear to support it. Socialism is a major factor why people have fewer kids. If the state is going to take care of you, it replaces family in this regard, and there is less incentive to build up a family as opposed to go it alone, backstopped by the state. Wealth is not positively correlated with fertility, it seems to be an excuse well off people use for why they won’t have kids.

toomuchtodo 1y ago
Only the selfish or cowardly will have children as a means to support them in old age, I argue, and since children grow to be adults with free will, they don’t have to take care of their parents. Certainly, I agree some will take their chances for self serving reasons, which is unfortunate. We expect humans, who exist without their consent, to earn a living during their lifetime; no reason they can’t save for elder care vs spend hundreds of thousands of dollars raising kids under no obligation to care for them decades in the future. Rightsizing the global population pyramid scheme through fertility choice empowerment is going to be painful unfortunately. It was a form of debt issued, and will slowly be “paid back” as structural demographics compress over the next 100-200 years. (in the US, the cost to raise a child from 0-18 in 2023 dollars is ~$330k, not including childcare or college)
- andy99 1y ago
  I don’t think people consciously operate this way, but it’s a question of incentives. A society that emphasizes family and supporting elders will have more kids, one where the state has a bigger role fewer. It’s not a conspiracy but a nudge.
  - toomuchtodo 1y ago
    It's not mentioned in Birth Gap [1] (who will take care of you in old age) in the interview questions they ask, but I recommend the documentary regardless to understand the motivations for less children globally. The cohort of those who intend to be childfree continues to grow [2] [3] (at least in the US). [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2GeVG0XYTc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2GeVG0XYTc [2] https://msutoday.msu.edu/news/2025/04/msu-study-finds-number-of-us-nonparents-who-never-want-children-is-growing https://msutoday.msu.edu/news/2025/04/msu-study-finds-number... [3] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44749557 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44749557 (citations)
bediger4000 1y ago
even if this study doesn’t appear to support it. How much evidence would it take to change your mind?
- andy99 1y ago
  Do you have a point or are you just trying to feel smart with a low effort remark? I’ve included the reasoning behind my view.
  - clipsy 1y ago
    To me it seems like a fair and increasingly important question to ask people: is there any amount of contrary empirical evidence that would cause you to reevaluate your reasoning?
  - bediger4000 1y ago
    With all due respect, sound logical systems can prove falsehoods when starting from false premises. Human behavior is notoriously difficult to reason about, probably because of uncertainty about those premises. I'm asking what evidence would change your premises. I apologize for giving a bad vibe previously.

by andy99 1y ago

toomuchtodo 1y ago

Only the selfish or cowardly will have children as a means to support them in old age, I argue, and since children grow to be adults with free will, they don’t have to take care of their parents. Certainly, I agree some will take their chances for self serving reasons, which is unfortunate. We expect humans, who exist without their consent, to earn a living during their lifetime; no reason they can’t save for elder care vs spend hundreds of thousands of dollars raising kids under no obligation to care for them decades in the future. Rightsizing the global population pyramid scheme through fertility choice empowerment is going to be painful unfortunately. It was a form of debt issued, and will slowly be “paid back” as structural demographics compress over the next 100-200 years. (in the US, the cost to raise a child from 0-18 in 2023 dollars is ~$330k, not including childcare or college)

andy99 1y ago
I don’t think people consciously operate this way, but it’s a question of incentives. A society that emphasizes family and supporting elders will have more kids, one where the state has a bigger role fewer. It’s not a conspiracy but a nudge.
- toomuchtodo 1y ago
  It's not mentioned in Birth Gap [1] (who will take care of you in old age) in the interview questions they ask, but I recommend the documentary regardless to understand the motivations for less children globally. The cohort of those who intend to be childfree continues to grow [2] [3] (at least in the US). [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2GeVG0XYTc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2GeVG0XYTc [2] https://msutoday.msu.edu/news/2025/04/msu-study-finds-number-of-us-nonparents-who-never-want-children-is-growing https://msutoday.msu.edu/news/2025/04/msu-study-finds-number... [3] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44749557 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44749557 (citations)

bediger4000 1y ago

even if this study doesn’t appear to support it. How much evidence would it take to change your mind?

andy99 1y ago
Do you have a point or are you just trying to feel smart with a low effort remark? I’ve included the reasoning behind my view.
- clipsy 1y ago
  To me it seems like a fair and increasingly important question to ask people: is there any amount of contrary empirical evidence that would cause you to reevaluate your reasoning?
- bediger4000 1y ago
  With all due respect, sound logical systems can prove falsehoods when starting from false premises. Human behavior is notoriously difficult to reason about, probably because of uncertainty about those premises. I'm asking what evidence would change your premises. I apologize for giving a bad vibe previously.