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On paper, nothing will happen. The wealthy in America will continue to get wealthier. Real estate and stocks will soar in value. In reality, the dollar's true

On paper, nothing will happen. The wealthy in America will continue to get wealthier. Real estate and stocks will soar in value. In reality, the dollar's true value will plummet. The FED is starting to lower interest rates again. We are likely going to undergo brutal inflation. Crashing the economy is obviously very politically unpopular. The left/right will do whatever they can to keep this charade up, even if it means dooming the working class and throwing them some kind of bone to make them think they're ok. The COVID pandemic was a good example of this. The working class got thrown a $2,000 check while there was billions given to bail out businesses/lots of fraud. Not a lot of people cared because hey, we got a $2k check... Even though that $2k check was not even close to maintaining their relative wealth pre-pandemic due to all of the government's inflationary measures. There won't be a recession, it won't happen on paper. But the middle/working class will continue to be squeezed. And there will be programs to "rescue us." Maybe it's low cost home programs, maybe it's community college, I'm not sure. But I am sure it will never truly benefit the working/middle class, it'll just be a token to keep them from fully dying.

epistasis 1y ago
The value of the dollar has already plummeted, 10% or so this year. It's expected that 2026 will have an equal dollar devaluation. This is the best-possible interpretation of the goals of this administration, the so-called Mar-a-Lago Accord that is somehow supposed to help some part of the economy. It's unclear who or how, to me.
- mgh95 1y ago
  > The value of the dollar has already plummeted, 10% or so this year. Compared to what? From Nov 3, 2024: the USD against: GBP (3)% JPY (1.7)% EUR (6.7)% INR 4.6% AUD 1.3% CAD .74% RMB .4% The EUR (if that is what you are going by) is unusually strong, and that's actually starting to cause issues. But the dollar isn't "collapsing".
  - epistasis 1y ago
    https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/us-dollar-declines https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/us-dollar-de...
    - mgh95 1y ago
      That operates on calendar year. That is primarily due to the rapid appreciation of the USD vs global based after Trumps election on the perception that tariffs would be far higher and more continuous than they actually were. The truth is, the currency markets are roughly where they were about a year ago, with the exception of EUR, but thats a special case which I think is a symbol if a misstep by the ECB.
      - epistasis 1y ago
        Yes, the calendar year matches what I was talking about, and more closely matches the current economic policy of the US. It wasn't until February that the real economic and foreign policy of the US became clear, and the full insanity of it all is still sinking in. I'm not sure why your hand-picked list of currencies is revelant, or why your particular dates are relevant. The course for the future looks to be a greater devaluation of the US currency. This is the goal of the Trump administration and what is apparent to analysts.
        mgh95 1y ago
        > I'm not sure why your hand-picked list of currencies is revelant, or why your particular dates are relevant. The course for the future looks to be a greater devaluation of the US currency. What other currencies do you believe are important? We pulled 2-5 of the most commonly used reserve currencies and some other ones as well.
  - _heimdall 1y ago
    Comparing against other currencies are tricky, they often move in a similar direction at different rates.
vkou 1y ago
> In reality, the dollar's true value will plummet. It already has. It's down ~12% vs the EUR. It's even down 4% vs CAD, and Canada's on the front line of having its economy destroyed by Trumponomics. When the global markets have more confidence in the Canadian dollar than the American one, good luck...
- hotep99 1y ago
  It's probably much higher than that in reality if you look at assets spiking compared to the dollar. Gold is going completely parabolic right now. Real estate shows no signs of slowing down. Crypto (regardless of your opinion of it) is spiking as people try to store value anywhere besides the dollar. We hear about the AI bubble propping up equity markets all the time but I always wonder how much of it is just investors desperately converting dollars into anything else with a bit of liquidity.
colechristensen 1y ago
>The COVID pandemic was a good example of this. The working class got thrown a $2,000 check while there was billions given to bail out businesses/lots of fraud. A lot of people were paid more to not work during COVID restrictions than they earned before or after. $653 billion in federal funds for unemployment programs. People were getting $600 per week from the feds for a while, then $300/week. Not a single $2000 check, $2400 per month. About the bottom 25 percentile were brought up to 25th percentile income.
jrs235 1y ago
>Crashing the economy is obviously very politically unpopular. But not something one worries or cares about if one doesn't worry about having to be elected and/or is willing to use the military to suppress dissent... So tanking the economy is a way to keep and maintain power...
- Slava_Propanei 1y ago
  [dead]
ponector 1y ago
>> In reality, the dollar's true value will plummet But it's good. There is no way to bring back manufacturing jobs to the US while dollar is strong. Also high inflation may make housing more affordable.
- eecc 1y ago
  If manufacturing is to return to the USA, it will be as fully automated as technically possible. So forget about jobs, there won't remotely be as many as needed to "reboot the working class"
  - spwa4 1y ago
    The effect of weakening the dollar is not to return manufacturing jobs to the US while allowing the same dollars to buy the same products. It's to make imported goods more expensive so domestically produced ones win out in the marketplace, both in and outside of the US. To make you switch because your favorite products become too expensive. It's to make you chose Californian wine over French one, so to speak. Whether you are in the US or elsewhere. If technological advancement is going to kill the working class, this might slightly accelerate that development but it does not change it one way or the other.
    - eecc 1y ago
      I still don’t understand the point of all this exercise. In the long run, without a fairer redistribution of wealth within US society (which isn’t going to happen with these polices and the politicians pushing them) forcing re-shoring will still result in higher prices overall: expensive Made in USA products, and expensive imports due to a weak dollar. So why?
gaul_bladder 1y ago
[dead]

epistasis 1y ago

The value of the dollar has already plummeted, 10% or so this year. It's expected that 2026 will have an equal dollar devaluation. This is the best-possible interpretation of the goals of this administration, the so-called Mar-a-Lago Accord that is somehow supposed to help some part of the economy. It's unclear who or how, to me.

mgh95 1y ago
> The value of the dollar has already plummeted, 10% or so this year. Compared to what? From Nov 3, 2024: the USD against: GBP (3)% JPY (1.7)% EUR (6.7)% INR 4.6% AUD 1.3% CAD .74% RMB .4% The EUR (if that is what you are going by) is unusually strong, and that's actually starting to cause issues. But the dollar isn't "collapsing".
- epistasis 1y ago
  https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/us-dollar-declines https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/us-dollar-de...
  - mgh95 1y ago
    That operates on calendar year. That is primarily due to the rapid appreciation of the USD vs global based after Trumps election on the perception that tariffs would be far higher and more continuous than they actually were. The truth is, the currency markets are roughly where they were about a year ago, with the exception of EUR, but thats a special case which I think is a symbol if a misstep by the ECB.
    - epistasis 1y ago
      Yes, the calendar year matches what I was talking about, and more closely matches the current economic policy of the US. It wasn't until February that the real economic and foreign policy of the US became clear, and the full insanity of it all is still sinking in. I'm not sure why your hand-picked list of currencies is revelant, or why your particular dates are relevant. The course for the future looks to be a greater devaluation of the US currency. This is the goal of the Trump administration and what is apparent to analysts.
      - mgh95 1y ago
        > I'm not sure why your hand-picked list of currencies is revelant, or why your particular dates are relevant. The course for the future looks to be a greater devaluation of the US currency. What other currencies do you believe are important? We pulled 2-5 of the most commonly used reserve currencies and some other ones as well.
- _heimdall 1y ago
  Comparing against other currencies are tricky, they often move in a similar direction at different rates.

vkou 1y ago

> In reality, the dollar's true value will plummet. It already has. It's down ~12% vs the EUR. It's even down 4% vs CAD, and Canada's on the front line of having its economy destroyed by Trumponomics. When the global markets have more confidence in the Canadian dollar than the American one, good luck...

hotep99 1y ago
It's probably much higher than that in reality if you look at assets spiking compared to the dollar. Gold is going completely parabolic right now. Real estate shows no signs of slowing down. Crypto (regardless of your opinion of it) is spiking as people try to store value anywhere besides the dollar. We hear about the AI bubble propping up equity markets all the time but I always wonder how much of it is just investors desperately converting dollars into anything else with a bit of liquidity.

colechristensen 1y ago

>The COVID pandemic was a good example of this. The working class got thrown a $2,000 check while there was billions given to bail out businesses/lots of fraud. A lot of people were paid more to not work during COVID restrictions than they earned before or after. $653 billion in federal funds for unemployment programs. People were getting $600 per week from the feds for a while, then $300/week. Not a single $2000 check, $2400 per month. About the bottom 25 percentile were brought up to 25th percentile income.

jrs235 1y ago

>Crashing the economy is obviously very politically unpopular. But not something one worries or cares about if one doesn't worry about having to be elected and/or is willing to use the military to suppress dissent... So tanking the economy is a way to keep and maintain power...

Slava_Propanei 1y ago
[dead]

ponector 1y ago

>> In reality, the dollar's true value will plummet But it's good. There is no way to bring back manufacturing jobs to the US while dollar is strong. Also high inflation may make housing more affordable.

eecc 1y ago
If manufacturing is to return to the USA, it will be as fully automated as technically possible. So forget about jobs, there won't remotely be as many as needed to "reboot the working class"
- spwa4 1y ago
  The effect of weakening the dollar is not to return manufacturing jobs to the US while allowing the same dollars to buy the same products. It's to make imported goods more expensive so domestically produced ones win out in the marketplace, both in and outside of the US. To make you switch because your favorite products become too expensive. It's to make you chose Californian wine over French one, so to speak. Whether you are in the US or elsewhere. If technological advancement is going to kill the working class, this might slightly accelerate that development but it does not change it one way or the other.
  - eecc 1y ago
    I still don’t understand the point of all this exercise. In the long run, without a fairer redistribution of wealth within US society (which isn’t going to happen with these polices and the politicians pushing them) forcing re-shoring will still result in higher prices overall: expensive Made in USA products, and expensive imports due to a weak dollar. So why?

gaul_bladder 1y ago

[dead]