4 ms·

Why doesn't Anthropic needs similar levels of capital (or do they)?

chilipepperhott 1y ago
I believe they do, but the author seems to focus on OpenAI since they're more of a household name.
kachapopopow 1y ago
because this is for building "AGI", this has little to nothing to do with their current offerings. This also assumes that intelligence continues to scale with compute which is not a given.
- rediguanayum 1y ago
  I don't think it's AGI, but rather video production. OpenAI wants to build the next video social network / ads / tv / movie production system. The moat is the massive compute required.
  - gkoberger 1y ago
    I'm sure they're not against building this, and they definitely have competing priorities. But my personal belief is Sam Altman has a singular goal: AGI. Everything else keeps the lights on.
    - sho_hn 1y ago
      Is there any indication they are actually working on this and Altman is any good at pursuing this goal? I'm seriously asking, please inform the uninformed. My impression is that I hear a lot more about basic research from the competing high-profile labs, while OpenAI feels focused on their established stable of products. They also had high-profile researchers leave. Does OpenAI still have a culture looking for the next breakthroughs? How does their brain trust rank?
    - Analemma_ 1y ago
      Huh, my read is exactly the opposite: Altman wants to be a trillionaire and isn't picky about how he gets there. If AGI accomplishes it, great, but if that's not possible, "just" making a megacorporation which permanently breaks the negotiating power of labor is fine too. Amodei is the one who I think actually wants to build AGI.
      - thelastgallon 1y ago
        I think your read is right. There are a few people who want to be trillionaires and aren't too picky about to get there: Elon Musk, Sam Altman, Trump, Larry Ellison, Peter Thiel, Putin. Maybe Bezos and Zuckerberg. Of course, there wouldn't be many people who don't want to be trillionaires. Rare exceptions[1]. But these are the people with means to get there. [1]: No means NO - Do you want a one million dollar answer NO!: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GtWC4X628Ek https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GtWC4X628Ek
        wkat4242 1y ago
        I definitely would not want to be a trillionaire yeah. Having a million or so would be nice but more and you get roped into all kinds of power play and you have to get security goons with you all the time to avoid getting kidnapped. I'd much rather be anonymous.
        cindyllm 1y ago
        [dead]
        kachapopopow 1y ago
        to be fair I couldn't recognize 99% of billionaires and crazy people are easy to deal with if you know what I mean.
        codyb 1y ago
        To be fair, you're probably not an organized crime syndicate looking for targets either.
    - timeon 1y ago
      Isn't that just PR?
- sillysaurusx 1y ago
  > This also assumes that intelligence continues to scale with compute which is not a given. Isn’t it? Evidence seems to suggest that the more compute you throw at a problem, the smarter the system behaves. Sure, it’s not a given, but it seems plausible.
  - deadbabe 1y ago
    In a brute force poorly architected way, perhaps. But human brains are small and require far less energy to be very generally intelligent. So clearly, there must be a better way to achieve this AGI shit. Preferably something that runs locally in the palm of your hand.
  - kachapopopow 1y ago
    it's not mathematically proven therefore it is not a given.
    - JumpCrisscross 1y ago
      > it's not mathematically proven therefore it is not a given Given doesn't mean proven, it means accepted as true. We can give variables fixed values, for example. Entire classes of proofs, moreover, prove something cannot be true because if you assume it is you get a paradox or nonsense.
      - kachapopopow 1y ago
        we had this problem in mathematics that's why all ambiguity was eliminated and why adding two numbers together is like 30 pages of proofs.
  - nutjob2 1y ago
    > a problem That word is carrying a heavy load. There's no evidence that scaling works indefinitely on this particular sort of problem. In fact there is no evidence that scaling solves computing problems generally. In more narrow fields more compute gets better results but that niche is not so large.
  - 1y ago
- JumpCrisscross 1y ago
  > this is for building "AGI" I’m increasingly convinced this is AI’s public relations strategy. When it comes to talking to customers and investors, AGI doesn’t come up. At fireside chats, AGI doesn’t come up. Then these guys go on CNBC or whatnot and it’s only about AGI.
evandrofisico 1y ago
Anthropic is more secretive about their costs, Ed Zitron is right now investigating their costs, specifically on GCP
- senordevnyc 1y ago
  Sure he is
cma 1y ago
Anthropic seems more comfortable using TPUs for overflow capacity. The recent Claude degradation was largely due to a bug from implementation differences with TPUs and from their writeup we got some idea of their mix between Nvidia and TPU for inference. I'm not sure if OpenAI has been willing to deploy weights to Google infrastructure.
wmf 1y ago
Anthropic will need it if their growth continues.

I believe they do, but the author seems to focus on OpenAI since they're more of a household name.

because this is for building "AGI", this has little to nothing to do with their current offerings. This also assumes that intelligence continues to scale with compute which is not a given.

rediguanayum 1y ago
I don't think it's AGI, but rather video production. OpenAI wants to build the next video social network / ads / tv / movie production system. The moat is the massive compute required.
- gkoberger 1y ago
  I'm sure they're not against building this, and they definitely have competing priorities. But my personal belief is Sam Altman has a singular goal: AGI. Everything else keeps the lights on.
  - sho_hn 1y ago
    Is there any indication they are actually working on this and Altman is any good at pursuing this goal? I'm seriously asking, please inform the uninformed. My impression is that I hear a lot more about basic research from the competing high-profile labs, while OpenAI feels focused on their established stable of products. They also had high-profile researchers leave. Does OpenAI still have a culture looking for the next breakthroughs? How does their brain trust rank?
  - Analemma_ 1y ago
    Huh, my read is exactly the opposite: Altman wants to be a trillionaire and isn't picky about how he gets there. If AGI accomplishes it, great, but if that's not possible, "just" making a megacorporation which permanently breaks the negotiating power of labor is fine too. Amodei is the one who I think actually wants to build AGI.
    - thelastgallon 1y ago
      I think your read is right. There are a few people who want to be trillionaires and aren't too picky about to get there: Elon Musk, Sam Altman, Trump, Larry Ellison, Peter Thiel, Putin. Maybe Bezos and Zuckerberg. Of course, there wouldn't be many people who don't want to be trillionaires. Rare exceptions[1]. But these are the people with means to get there. [1]: No means NO - Do you want a one million dollar answer NO!: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GtWC4X628Ek https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GtWC4X628Ek
      - wkat4242 1y ago
        I definitely would not want to be a trillionaire yeah. Having a million or so would be nice but more and you get roped into all kinds of power play and you have to get security goons with you all the time to avoid getting kidnapped. I'd much rather be anonymous.
        cindyllm 1y ago
        [dead]
        kachapopopow 1y ago
        to be fair I couldn't recognize 99% of billionaires and crazy people are easy to deal with if you know what I mean.
        codyb 1y ago
        To be fair, you're probably not an organized crime syndicate looking for targets either.
  - timeon 1y ago
    Isn't that just PR?
sillysaurusx 1y ago
> This also assumes that intelligence continues to scale with compute which is not a given. Isn’t it? Evidence seems to suggest that the more compute you throw at a problem, the smarter the system behaves. Sure, it’s not a given, but it seems plausible.
- deadbabe 1y ago
  In a brute force poorly architected way, perhaps. But human brains are small and require far less energy to be very generally intelligent. So clearly, there must be a better way to achieve this AGI shit. Preferably something that runs locally in the palm of your hand.
- kachapopopow 1y ago
  it's not mathematically proven therefore it is not a given.
  - JumpCrisscross 1y ago
    > it's not mathematically proven therefore it is not a given Given doesn't mean proven, it means accepted as true. We can give variables fixed values, for example. Entire classes of proofs, moreover, prove something cannot be true because if you assume it is you get a paradox or nonsense.
    - kachapopopow 1y ago
      we had this problem in mathematics that's why all ambiguity was eliminated and why adding two numbers together is like 30 pages of proofs.
- nutjob2 1y ago
  > a problem That word is carrying a heavy load. There's no evidence that scaling works indefinitely on this particular sort of problem. In fact there is no evidence that scaling solves computing problems generally. In more narrow fields more compute gets better results but that niche is not so large.
- 1y ago
JumpCrisscross 1y ago
> this is for building "AGI" I’m increasingly convinced this is AI’s public relations strategy. When it comes to talking to customers and investors, AGI doesn’t come up. At fireside chats, AGI doesn’t come up. Then these guys go on CNBC or whatnot and it’s only about AGI.

evandrofisico 1y ago

Anthropic is more secretive about their costs, Ed Zitron is right now investigating their costs, specifically on GCP

senordevnyc 1y ago
Sure he is

cma 1y ago

Anthropic seems more comfortable using TPUs for overflow capacity. The recent Claude degradation was largely due to a bug from implementation differences with TPUs and from their writeup we got some idea of their mix between Nvidia and TPU for inference. I'm not sure if OpenAI has been willing to deploy weights to Google infrastructure.

wmf 1y ago

Anthropic will need it if their growth continues.