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I am going to declare my wife to be the authority on this topic. We were well on a path to purchase a couple of EV's (Teslas, new) and even installed a large s

I am going to declare my wife to be the authority on this topic. We were well on a path to purchase a couple of EV's (Teslas, new) and even installed a large solar array to support them. A couple of years later she learned about the cost of replacing the battery. And, just like that, the dream was over. No interest whatsoever. Anyone who is married fully understands you cannot argue with wife logic. She has no interest in having to spend $20K to $30K ever on any vehicle, of any type, electric or not, a few years after you paid off the loan. She would not even touch a used EV if it was almost free. In that case you are almost guaranteed to have to spend tens of thousands of dollars for a new battery at a random moment in time in the future. No deal. Her logic is cemented in a reality of life that we have lived: There are good times and bad times. And, as things go sometimes, you often find yourself in bad times with no money. Vehicles being necessary for mobility and work, if you have an EV, hit bad times and need to spend tens of thousands of dollars to swap the battery, you are absolutely screwed. So, I asked her: What would make you change your mind? The answer: A battery swap should be $5,000 or less.

potato3732842 1y ago
>Anyone who is married fully understands you cannot argue with wife logic. This is the job the 4dr Wrangler was built to solve. "see honey, it's got a back seat for the kids". "don't worry, we can get a hard top if it's too loud." "there's a hybrid option available" It's the world's worst 4dr SUV for kids and car seats and the like and it's still loud with a hard top and gets shit milage for a hybrid but you'll never figure it out until after you've bought the thing and the honeymoon period is over. It's an absolutely brilliant exercise in checkbox engineering (and preventing couples from arguing in the dealership).
dalyons 1y ago
It’s not a random moment, they degrade predictably over time and at a very slow rate. They have less “random” big expensive failures than ice cars. How much is an ice whole engine replacement in a semi modern car? Not cheap and happens more often than an ev battery dropping dead. So I mean I’m sorry your wife is irrational about it, but I don’t think that’s indicative of the market as a whole.
- Flamingoat 1y ago
  > It’s not a random moment, they degrade predictably over time and at a very slow rate. So do traditional vehicles. You need to have them serviced regularly, but otherwise they work fine for literally decades. My uncle has a Volvo 240 GL that car is 50+ year old. > How much is an ice whole engine replacement in a semi modern car? Not cheap and happens more often than an ev battery dropping dead. Engine failure is extremely rare. My 1997 Landrover Defender 300TDI is getting upto 300,000 miles and lets just say it hasn't had the easiest life (it was on a farm before I got it). Landrover's aren't known for their reliability. My old Astra is still on the road (according to the DVLA) and that had well over 150,000 on the clock when I sold it. > So I mean I’m sorry your wife is irrational about it, but I don’t think that’s indicative of the market as a whole. His wife isn't irrational. I can get a mid-2000s Diesel that will have decent mileage for less than £4000 in the UK. I see people saying "I only paid $30,000 for this EV". I have never paid more than £10,000 for a car and they last for years and years as long as I get them serviced
  - dalyons 1y ago
    His whole point was that the battery pack would randomly completely fail and they’d be unpredictably out a bunch of money. That doesn’t happen. Or at least, doesn’t happen more than ICE engines randomly die.
    - Flamingoat 1y ago
      No his point was that there could be a cost to replacement that would be extremely expensive and that put his wife off. It would puts most people off. It doesn't matter what the rates are compared to Petrol/Diesel cars, it is an unknown and large potential cost with an expensive initial purchase especially compared to a second hand vehicle that would fulfil the exact same function.
      - dalyons 1y ago
        My ice car _could_ spontaneously catch fire and be totaled, that would be an unknown large expense. But people (rightfully) don’t factor that into buying cars because it’s an infrequent fault. Same with this fear of spontaneous battery failure. Saying that actually makes me wonder - surely insurance would cover a random battery failure fault, in the same way as an engine fire? I dont know if it does but it feels intuitively like it should.
floxy 1y ago
In 15 years / 300,000 miles when the battery might need replacement, the pack (not cell) price for batteries will probably be around $50/kWh, or $5,000 for 100 kWh. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/average-battery-cell-price https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/average-battery-cell-pric...
- robomartin 1y ago
  You must not be married. That argument would last approximately two city blocks and then I'd have to shut up. She is not unintelligent, BTW, she is a doctor, not an engineer. The EV car industry has probably done a horrible job in mitigating this fear. I get the "batteries will get cheaper" argument. If you read my comment, I said that that a guaranteed $5K battery replacement would likely convince loads of people, including my wife. Today, nobody will issue that guarantee. Today it is a lottery with a $25K hit if you have a losing ticket. Nobody wants to buy a vehicle for tens of thousands of dollars and have a $25K surprise a couple of years later. With an conventional vehicle you would have to to launch it off a cliff to have to spend $25K in repairs. That's the problem.
  - dalyons 1y ago
    They don’t randomly die. They degrade slowly and predictably. Your lottery analogy is misguided.
  - floxy 1y ago
    https://coltura.org/electric-car-battery-life/ https://coltura.org/electric-car-battery-life/ I have been married for more than 20 year, have 4 children (3 teen-aged drivers), and two electric vehicles. I paid less than $25,000 out-the-door (including sales tax, etc.) for my brand new 2025 SV+ Nissan Leaf. Where I live in Washington state, gas is >$4/gal and electricity is less than $0.08/kWh. I get better than 4 miles/kWh. After 250,000 miles, a vehicle averaging 40 miles/gallon will have spent $25,000 in gasoline (at $4/gal). With my electric rates, electric "fuel" costs for the same 250,000 miles will be $5,000. So a $20,000 difference in fuel costs. Looks like it is ~$8k for a 62 kWh Nissan Leaf battery: https://vivnevs.com/products/62kwh-nissan-leaf-battery-pack-180ah-catl-lithium-battery-for-leaf-battery-upgrade?VariantsId=12862 https://vivnevs.com/products/62kwh-nissan-leaf-battery-pack-... Every EV sold in the U.S. gets a federally mandated transferable battery warranty of 8 years/100,000 miles. Buying new or very lightly used and getting rid of it before the warranty expires is an option for those with infant-mortality battery anxiety. We are not in the early adopter phase with EVs anymore, so it is less of risky-new-thing-that-doesn't-pan-out. It is OK to be a late adopter. But it is a much nicer of an experience. And no oil-changes or going to the gas station (I wouldn't recommend getting an EV if you can't charge overnight at home). Have you ever test driven an EV? EVs pretty much sell themselves, once you get behind the wheel.

potato3732842 1y ago

>Anyone who is married fully understands you cannot argue with wife logic. This is the job the 4dr Wrangler was built to solve. "see honey, it's got a back seat for the kids". "don't worry, we can get a hard top if it's too loud." "there's a hybrid option available" It's the world's worst 4dr SUV for kids and car seats and the like and it's still loud with a hard top and gets shit milage for a hybrid but you'll never figure it out until after you've bought the thing and the honeymoon period is over. It's an absolutely brilliant exercise in checkbox engineering (and preventing couples from arguing in the dealership).

dalyons 1y ago

It’s not a random moment, they degrade predictably over time and at a very slow rate. They have less “random” big expensive failures than ice cars. How much is an ice whole engine replacement in a semi modern car? Not cheap and happens more often than an ev battery dropping dead. So I mean I’m sorry your wife is irrational about it, but I don’t think that’s indicative of the market as a whole.

Flamingoat 1y ago
> It’s not a random moment, they degrade predictably over time and at a very slow rate. So do traditional vehicles. You need to have them serviced regularly, but otherwise they work fine for literally decades. My uncle has a Volvo 240 GL that car is 50+ year old. > How much is an ice whole engine replacement in a semi modern car? Not cheap and happens more often than an ev battery dropping dead. Engine failure is extremely rare. My 1997 Landrover Defender 300TDI is getting upto 300,000 miles and lets just say it hasn't had the easiest life (it was on a farm before I got it). Landrover's aren't known for their reliability. My old Astra is still on the road (according to the DVLA) and that had well over 150,000 on the clock when I sold it. > So I mean I’m sorry your wife is irrational about it, but I don’t think that’s indicative of the market as a whole. His wife isn't irrational. I can get a mid-2000s Diesel that will have decent mileage for less than £4000 in the UK. I see people saying "I only paid $30,000 for this EV". I have never paid more than £10,000 for a car and they last for years and years as long as I get them serviced
- dalyons 1y ago
  His whole point was that the battery pack would randomly completely fail and they’d be unpredictably out a bunch of money. That doesn’t happen. Or at least, doesn’t happen more than ICE engines randomly die.
  - Flamingoat 1y ago
    No his point was that there could be a cost to replacement that would be extremely expensive and that put his wife off. It would puts most people off. It doesn't matter what the rates are compared to Petrol/Diesel cars, it is an unknown and large potential cost with an expensive initial purchase especially compared to a second hand vehicle that would fulfil the exact same function.
    - dalyons 1y ago
      My ice car _could_ spontaneously catch fire and be totaled, that would be an unknown large expense. But people (rightfully) don’t factor that into buying cars because it’s an infrequent fault. Same with this fear of spontaneous battery failure. Saying that actually makes me wonder - surely insurance would cover a random battery failure fault, in the same way as an engine fire? I dont know if it does but it feels intuitively like it should.

floxy 1y ago

In 15 years / 300,000 miles when the battery might need replacement, the pack (not cell) price for batteries will probably be around $50/kWh, or $5,000 for 100 kWh. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/average-battery-cell-price https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/average-battery-cell-pric...

robomartin 1y ago
You must not be married. That argument would last approximately two city blocks and then I'd have to shut up. She is not unintelligent, BTW, she is a doctor, not an engineer. The EV car industry has probably done a horrible job in mitigating this fear. I get the "batteries will get cheaper" argument. If you read my comment, I said that that a guaranteed $5K battery replacement would likely convince loads of people, including my wife. Today, nobody will issue that guarantee. Today it is a lottery with a $25K hit if you have a losing ticket. Nobody wants to buy a vehicle for tens of thousands of dollars and have a $25K surprise a couple of years later. With an conventional vehicle you would have to to launch it off a cliff to have to spend $25K in repairs. That's the problem.
- dalyons 1y ago
  They don’t randomly die. They degrade slowly and predictably. Your lottery analogy is misguided.
- floxy 1y ago
  https://coltura.org/electric-car-battery-life/ https://coltura.org/electric-car-battery-life/ I have been married for more than 20 year, have 4 children (3 teen-aged drivers), and two electric vehicles. I paid less than $25,000 out-the-door (including sales tax, etc.) for my brand new 2025 SV+ Nissan Leaf. Where I live in Washington state, gas is >$4/gal and electricity is less than $0.08/kWh. I get better than 4 miles/kWh. After 250,000 miles, a vehicle averaging 40 miles/gallon will have spent $25,000 in gasoline (at $4/gal). With my electric rates, electric "fuel" costs for the same 250,000 miles will be $5,000. So a $20,000 difference in fuel costs. Looks like it is ~$8k for a 62 kWh Nissan Leaf battery: https://vivnevs.com/products/62kwh-nissan-leaf-battery-pack-180ah-catl-lithium-battery-for-leaf-battery-upgrade?VariantsId=12862 https://vivnevs.com/products/62kwh-nissan-leaf-battery-pack-... Every EV sold in the U.S. gets a federally mandated transferable battery warranty of 8 years/100,000 miles. Buying new or very lightly used and getting rid of it before the warranty expires is an option for those with infant-mortality battery anxiety. We are not in the early adopter phase with EVs anymore, so it is less of risky-new-thing-that-doesn't-pan-out. It is OK to be a late adopter. But it is a much nicer of an experience. And no oil-changes or going to the gas station (I wouldn't recommend getting an EV if you can't charge overnight at home). Have you ever test driven an EV? EVs pretty much sell themselves, once you get behind the wheel.