3 ms·
Why? There's nothing particularly special about this problem. I would bet a year for an alpha version, and production version in 5 years. We are not exactly lim
by Onavo 1y ago
Why? There's nothing particularly special about this problem. I would bet a year for an alpha version, and production version in 5 years. We are not exactly limited by mechanical engineering here, there's nothing particularly unique about the human hand that can't be replicated. Tele operated surgical robotics have been a thing for decades. Give it a few months for the multimodal robotic VLM/LAMs to catch up. In many ways this particular problem is a lot more well defined than e.g. self driving cars.
- tintor 1y ago> there's nothing particularly unique about the human hand that can't be replicated Humanity is far from replicating / matching performance of human hand.
- eru 1y agoWe are far from matching the performance of a human hand in general, but for special tasks we can totally match or exceed the performance. For example, a nutcracker can crack nuts better than my hand. A dishwasher can wash dishes better than my hand. A special robot might be able to change diapers better than my hand.
- imtringued 1y agoThe point is that the success rate needs to be 99% and safety needs to be 100%. You're not allowed to take shortcuts. That's what makes it difficult. Also VLMs/LAMs aren't going to cut it. You're going to need something like TDMPC.
- Onavo 1y agoTDMPC for one of the downstream networks perhaps, but the upstream will have to be some sort of reasoning model if you want it to be general purpose w.r.t. babies.
- eru 1y agoIt's good that you make a distinction between success rate and safety rate. However, safety rate doesn't need to be 100%. If you can keep the failure probability as low as the probability to be hit by a random asteroid falling from the sky, that's good enough.