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Black swan event should be unexpected. Trumps victory was within expected possibilities. It was also his second victory. And his moves after winning were not u

• littlestymaar 1y ago
  A coronavirus causing a global pandemic at some point was even more expected though. And even the erratic government reactions to the pandemic was not entirely unpredictable either to be fair.
  • freejazz 1y ago
    Yes, expected at some point. Everyone knows when the election will happen, who is running, etc.
• intended 1y ago
  True. It must be added, that theres two wrenches in the machinery that transforms information into action currently. Firstly - The average market behavior is average. From experience, most people could not imagine anything of what was predicted, would come true. There is a large … debt of intellectual work that is being underwritten, allowing people to sell narratives which do not correspond to reality. This is a direct result of a captured, unfair information environment. As a result, the average behavior of the market is not pricing in these things, even if the plans were made clear.
• formerly_proven 1y ago
  > Trumps victory was within expected possibilities. While people felt that polls indicated a Harris victory and the margin of Trump's win was a surprise and a failure of forecasters, in reality it was always a toss-up in forecasts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_States_presidential_election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for...