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I know it’s not popular to bring politics into things on HN, but… From the outside at least, White House policy sounds like at least as much of a black swan eve

by mtsr 1y ago

I know it’s not popular to bring politics into things on HN, but… From the outside at least, White House policy sounds like at least as much of a black swan event as COVID.

deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
watwut 1y ago
Black swan event should be unexpected. Trumps victory was within expected possibilities. It was also his second victory. And his moves after winning were not unexpected either - he is doing what his opponents predicted he will do.
- littlestymaar 1y ago
  A coronavirus causing a global pandemic at some point was even more expected though. And even the erratic government reactions to the pandemic was not entirely unpredictable either to be fair.
  - freejazz 1y ago
    Yes, expected at some point. Everyone knows when the election will happen, who is running, etc.
- intended 1y ago
  True. It must be added, that theres two wrenches in the machinery that transforms information into action currently. Firstly - The average market behavior is average. From experience, most people could not imagine anything of what was predicted, would come true. There is a large … debt of intellectual work that is being underwritten, allowing people to sell narratives which do not correspond to reality. This is a direct result of a captured, unfair information environment. As a result, the average behavior of the market is not pricing in these things, even if the plans were made clear.
- formerly_proven 1y ago
  > Trumps victory was within expected possibilities. While people felt that polls indicated a Harris victory and the margin of Trump's win was a surprise and a failure of forecasters, in reality it was always a toss-up in forecasts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_States_presidential_election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for...
throw-10-13 1y ago
Not at all, people voted for this and the outcome was expected by people paying attention. I moved all of my money out of the US the week following the election.
- AlecSchueler 1y ago
  > I moved all of my money out of the US the week following the election. That sounds pretty black swan to me, I'm guessing you never felt the need sheet any previous election? Being predictable and being unique are different things.
  - etiennebausson 1y ago
    Black swan event: an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. Trump is the direction taken by U.S. politics for decades now. I could see it post- 9/11, and I was not the most enlightened teenager. Others probably saw it coming years or decades earlier.
    - ben_w 1y ago
      > Trump is the direction taken by U.S. politics for decades now. I could see it post- 9/11, and I was not the most enlightened teenager. Others probably saw it coming years or decades earlier. While it is kinda the same direction, it also has two Black Swan components: 1) What he's doing actually matches the rhetoric, e.g. actually trying to kick out illegal immigrants even though they're the (underpaid) farm workers holding back food price inflation. 2) It definitely wasn't on my metaphorical bingo card that someone with multiple felony convictions and who had been impeached twice for trying to interfere with the democratic hand over of power, went on to become the popular choice for president.
      - etiennebausson 1y ago
        Because his criminal record has little to do with the policies he is pushing. Sure, the election of a convict was a risky bet, but the appearance of the policies he is pushing was really not.
ls612 1y ago
From the inside, this is nothing compared to COVID. 2025 feels a bit weird but to compare it with 2020 is laughable.
- eimrine 1y ago
  Depends on your country, 2025 can be either the super easy life or the super hard life compared to 2020.
- overfeed 1y ago
  For (services) software people, 2020 was great: work from home, sky-high jobs demand (perhaps Zero-interest related), surging demand and revenue because by people were bored at home. Brick and mortar retail workers were screwed in 2020. It is possible that 2025 could be the opposite, the software jobs market os already spooky for juniors, and could get much worse with an AI bust - guess what companies will do to show investors they are making up for written-off AI investments? A recession will lead to a drop in demand for online services like streaming, online shopping as people tighten their belts, upward ratcheting of subscription prices will only make the drop worse.
  - entropicdrifter 1y ago
    I think with an AI bust we're more likely to see juniors actually start getting jobs at reasonable rates... but only after short-sighted layoffs of a bunch of more senior positions as opposed to dumping AI products that so many companies have already signed year+ long contracts for in advance.
- Alive-in-2025 1y ago
  That view sounds like it's coming from a position of a white person, not married to a minority, not an immigrant. That describes me too. Software engineer, more secure economically. Even people with visas or permanent residency, or who even look like they might be Hispanic are justifiably worried about a random car pulling them over and breaking their window. If you aren't aware or concerned, I call that oblivious or a denial of reality. Or privilege (edit: corrected spelling). It's different in some ways of course than with covid.
throwaway422432 1y ago
A week before the election I bought shares in Lynas, (the major rare earth producer outside of China) when it seemed Trump could win. Rare Earth exports was a known lever that the CCP uses in a trade war, and Trump was very likely to restart his previous one. However, the Pentagon putting money into MP Materials was quite unexpected, and people are still throwing money at them.

by mtsr 1y ago

I know it’s not popular to bring politics into things on HN, but… From the outside at least, White House policy sounds like at least as much of a black swan event as COVID.

deleted 1y ago

[deleted]

watwut 1y ago

Black swan event should be unexpected. Trumps victory was within expected possibilities. It was also his second victory. And his moves after winning were not unexpected either - he is doing what his opponents predicted he will do.

littlestymaar 1y ago
A coronavirus causing a global pandemic at some point was even more expected though. And even the erratic government reactions to the pandemic was not entirely unpredictable either to be fair.
- freejazz 1y ago
  Yes, expected at some point. Everyone knows when the election will happen, who is running, etc.
intended 1y ago
True. It must be added, that theres two wrenches in the machinery that transforms information into action currently. Firstly - The average market behavior is average. From experience, most people could not imagine anything of what was predicted, would come true. There is a large … debt of intellectual work that is being underwritten, allowing people to sell narratives which do not correspond to reality. This is a direct result of a captured, unfair information environment. As a result, the average behavior of the market is not pricing in these things, even if the plans were made clear.
formerly_proven 1y ago
> Trumps victory was within expected possibilities. While people felt that polls indicated a Harris victory and the margin of Trump's win was a surprise and a failure of forecasters, in reality it was always a toss-up in forecasts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_States_presidential_election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for...

throw-10-13 1y ago

Not at all, people voted for this and the outcome was expected by people paying attention. I moved all of my money out of the US the week following the election.

AlecSchueler 1y ago
> I moved all of my money out of the US the week following the election. That sounds pretty black swan to me, I'm guessing you never felt the need sheet any previous election? Being predictable and being unique are different things.
- etiennebausson 1y ago
  Black swan event: an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. Trump is the direction taken by U.S. politics for decades now. I could see it post- 9/11, and I was not the most enlightened teenager. Others probably saw it coming years or decades earlier.
  - ben_w 1y ago
    > Trump is the direction taken by U.S. politics for decades now. I could see it post- 9/11, and I was not the most enlightened teenager. Others probably saw it coming years or decades earlier. While it is kinda the same direction, it also has two Black Swan components: 1) What he's doing actually matches the rhetoric, e.g. actually trying to kick out illegal immigrants even though they're the (underpaid) farm workers holding back food price inflation. 2) It definitely wasn't on my metaphorical bingo card that someone with multiple felony convictions and who had been impeached twice for trying to interfere with the democratic hand over of power, went on to become the popular choice for president.
    - etiennebausson 1y ago
      Because his criminal record has little to do with the policies he is pushing. Sure, the election of a convict was a risky bet, but the appearance of the policies he is pushing was really not.

ls612 1y ago

From the inside, this is nothing compared to COVID. 2025 feels a bit weird but to compare it with 2020 is laughable.

eimrine 1y ago
Depends on your country, 2025 can be either the super easy life or the super hard life compared to 2020.
overfeed 1y ago
For (services) software people, 2020 was great: work from home, sky-high jobs demand (perhaps Zero-interest related), surging demand and revenue because by people were bored at home. Brick and mortar retail workers were screwed in 2020. It is possible that 2025 could be the opposite, the software jobs market os already spooky for juniors, and could get much worse with an AI bust - guess what companies will do to show investors they are making up for written-off AI investments? A recession will lead to a drop in demand for online services like streaming, online shopping as people tighten their belts, upward ratcheting of subscription prices will only make the drop worse.
- entropicdrifter 1y ago
  I think with an AI bust we're more likely to see juniors actually start getting jobs at reasonable rates... but only after short-sighted layoffs of a bunch of more senior positions as opposed to dumping AI products that so many companies have already signed year+ long contracts for in advance.
Alive-in-2025 1y ago
That view sounds like it's coming from a position of a white person, not married to a minority, not an immigrant. That describes me too. Software engineer, more secure economically. Even people with visas or permanent residency, or who even look like they might be Hispanic are justifiably worried about a random car pulling them over and breaking their window. If you aren't aware or concerned, I call that oblivious or a denial of reality. Or privilege (edit: corrected spelling). It's different in some ways of course than with covid.

throwaway422432 1y ago

A week before the election I bought shares in Lynas, (the major rare earth producer outside of China) when it seemed Trump could win. Rare Earth exports was a known lever that the CCP uses in a trade war, and Trump was very likely to restart his previous one. However, the Pentagon putting money into MP Materials was quite unexpected, and people are still throwing money at them.