4 ms·

The reality is that it's probably good they're forcing our hand now rather than keep dumping and stringing us along.

echelon 1y ago
Same as what we've done to them with the GPU supply. It's time for us to grow anti-fragility and independence. And we should expect China to do the same. Sucks for US soybean farmers, but it would have undoubtedly happened in the future regardless. We need to distribute critical manufacturing far and wide amongst our allies, and onshore some of the most important pieces. (Though I'm not sure the current admin considers our allies as friends, which is not a great idea during this great reshuffling.)
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
- piskov 1y ago
  > It's time for us to grow anti-fragility and independence. And we should expect China to do the same. Now imagine if people stopped strong-arming each other.
- DougN7 1y ago
  I’m not sure our “allies” consider us allies any more.
  - ElectroBuffoon 1y ago
    It's deeper than that, it's about loyalties among you. Trump wants US military to get paid even with the federal government shutdown. [1] Like your executive fearing mercenaries changing their mind, instead of household troops staying in place when the pay chest takes a bit to show up. [1] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce808gvp56mo https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce808gvp56mo PS: Sorry guys, you fucked up. Hard. And by extension fucked everyone else, so expect no sympathies. We will be busy with the new boss, while trying to keep our democracies not going to crap too. New boss, worse boss than old boss.
  - refurb 1y ago
    There are no “allies” only interests. Nobody is an “ally” of the US because they like us. They are “allies” because it’s in their own interest to be one. When China starts throwing its weight around in the Pacific you’ll pretty quickly see those “allies” cozy back up.
  - TheRealNGenius 1y ago
    [dead]
- padjo 1y ago
  Who are the US’s allies these days? A bunch of petro state monarchies in the Middle East?
- derriz 1y ago
  In the last 9 months, we’ve seen the destruction of US international soft power on an unimaginable scale. It’s like watching a family fortune - built up over decades - go up in smoke in the hands of an irresponsible young heir. It will be impossible or difficult for the US to “leverage” its traditional allies in the way it has in the past. NATO and trade were powerful tools to protect US interests but have been devalued considerably by what has happened this year. Public sentiment towards the US in these countries is at unprecedented historic lows and given these allies were democracies, this means their political class cannot continue to support the US almost unconditionally like they have in the past. This destruction of goodwill will take a generation to repair.
ipnon 1y ago
This assumes we’re able to build a rare earth processing infrastructure in a reasonable timeframe, let’s say 10 years. I would not bet on it! America struggles to build anything quickly today except for software and capital.
- andy_ppp 1y ago
  I dunno they built out fracking pretty quickly to become one of the worlds biggest oil producers, no reason why they couldn’t if willing to destroy the environment like China is.
  - chii 1y ago
    it took decades of technological improvement to work out how to do fracking.
    - andy_ppp 1y ago
      So we’re talking about refining rare earths which we know how to do for decades. But good try.
- testdelacc1 1y ago
  That’s a pretty confident and sweeping statement. How the I-95 Bridge Reopened Just 12 Days After Fiery Collapse (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-28/resurrection-of-i-95-in-just-two-weeks-is-dubbed-small-miracle https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-28/resurrect...)
  - phi-go 1y ago
    They call this a miracle even in the article you linked.
lovich 1y ago
This is not the first time they "forced our hand". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare_earths_trade_dispute https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare_earths_trade_dispute Either were not actually that bothered by the restriction and are using this to gin up conflict, or we've been this incompetent at responding to existential threats for over a decade and a half, including multiple presidents, both parties holding power, and this current admin's first term. I am not really excited about either situation.
- mattmaroon 1y ago
  It could be both.
  - lovich 1y ago
    Thank you for letting me know that no matter how bad it is, it can always get worse.
    - mattmaroon 1y ago
      Ha. I think the bigger problem than the military is probably the nascent EV industry here. It must use orders of magnitude more of them than the defense industry, which can surely source them indirectly much the way China is still getting the chips we have export controls on. I doubt they can kill our missile production no matter what they do but they can probably kill Tesla.
      - woooooo 1y ago
        That could be China's real motivation as well, they have BYD and Xiaomi with a good shot at outcompeting the US globally in EVs.
        mattmaroon 1y ago
        It’s probably a major factor. Also, it’s great way to hammer back at the sanctions we already put in place.

Same as what we've done to them with the GPU supply. It's time for us to grow anti-fragility and independence. And we should expect China to do the same. Sucks for US soybean farmers, but it would have undoubtedly happened in the future regardless. We need to distribute critical manufacturing far and wide amongst our allies, and onshore some of the most important pieces. (Though I'm not sure the current admin considers our allies as friends, which is not a great idea during this great reshuffling.)

deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
piskov 1y ago
> It's time for us to grow anti-fragility and independence. And we should expect China to do the same. Now imagine if people stopped strong-arming each other.
DougN7 1y ago
I’m not sure our “allies” consider us allies any more.
- ElectroBuffoon 1y ago
  It's deeper than that, it's about loyalties among you. Trump wants US military to get paid even with the federal government shutdown. [1] Like your executive fearing mercenaries changing their mind, instead of household troops staying in place when the pay chest takes a bit to show up. [1] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce808gvp56mo https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce808gvp56mo PS: Sorry guys, you fucked up. Hard. And by extension fucked everyone else, so expect no sympathies. We will be busy with the new boss, while trying to keep our democracies not going to crap too. New boss, worse boss than old boss.
- refurb 1y ago
  There are no “allies” only interests. Nobody is an “ally” of the US because they like us. They are “allies” because it’s in their own interest to be one. When China starts throwing its weight around in the Pacific you’ll pretty quickly see those “allies” cozy back up.
- TheRealNGenius 1y ago
  [dead]
padjo 1y ago
Who are the US’s allies these days? A bunch of petro state monarchies in the Middle East?
derriz 1y ago
In the last 9 months, we’ve seen the destruction of US international soft power on an unimaginable scale. It’s like watching a family fortune - built up over decades - go up in smoke in the hands of an irresponsible young heir. It will be impossible or difficult for the US to “leverage” its traditional allies in the way it has in the past. NATO and trade were powerful tools to protect US interests but have been devalued considerably by what has happened this year. Public sentiment towards the US in these countries is at unprecedented historic lows and given these allies were democracies, this means their political class cannot continue to support the US almost unconditionally like they have in the past. This destruction of goodwill will take a generation to repair.

ipnon 1y ago

This assumes we’re able to build a rare earth processing infrastructure in a reasonable timeframe, let’s say 10 years. I would not bet on it! America struggles to build anything quickly today except for software and capital.

andy_ppp 1y ago
I dunno they built out fracking pretty quickly to become one of the worlds biggest oil producers, no reason why they couldn’t if willing to destroy the environment like China is.
- chii 1y ago
  it took decades of technological improvement to work out how to do fracking.
  - andy_ppp 1y ago
    So we’re talking about refining rare earths which we know how to do for decades. But good try.
testdelacc1 1y ago
That’s a pretty confident and sweeping statement. How the I-95 Bridge Reopened Just 12 Days After Fiery Collapse (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-28/resurrection-of-i-95-in-just-two-weeks-is-dubbed-small-miracle https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-28/resurrect...)
- phi-go 1y ago
  They call this a miracle even in the article you linked.

lovich 1y ago

This is not the first time they "forced our hand". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare_earths_trade_dispute https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare_earths_trade_dispute Either were not actually that bothered by the restriction and are using this to gin up conflict, or we've been this incompetent at responding to existential threats for over a decade and a half, including multiple presidents, both parties holding power, and this current admin's first term. I am not really excited about either situation.

mattmaroon 1y ago
It could be both.
- lovich 1y ago
  Thank you for letting me know that no matter how bad it is, it can always get worse.
  - mattmaroon 1y ago
    Ha. I think the bigger problem than the military is probably the nascent EV industry here. It must use orders of magnitude more of them than the defense industry, which can surely source them indirectly much the way China is still getting the chips we have export controls on. I doubt they can kill our missile production no matter what they do but they can probably kill Tesla.
    - woooooo 1y ago
      That could be China's real motivation as well, they have BYD and Xiaomi with a good shot at outcompeting the US globally in EVs.
      - mattmaroon 1y ago
        It’s probably a major factor. Also, it’s great way to hammer back at the sanctions we already put in place.