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> No nation has seen an immigration boom-bust cycle near the scale of the one roiling America. Net immigration nearly quadrupled after 2020 to peak at well over

by Oras 1y ago

> No nation has seen an immigration boom-bust cycle near the scale of the one roiling America. Net immigration nearly quadrupled after 2020 to peak at well over 3mn in 2023, but the backlash led by President Donald Trump sent that figure into freefall. This year only around 400,000 net new arrivals are expected, and that could be the trend in the coming years. If true, that's <1% of the population?

trod1234 1y ago
There aren't enough jobs because we are stuck in a money-printing loop thanks to the baby boomers. The dynamics and debasement floor prevent new entrants from entering the market while regulation cripples those trying to keep things going. Concentrating and sieving the money-supply into non-productive companies on a moonshot bet to eliminate capital formation and one party that forms the basis for the economic cycle. Demographics are destiny. Its pretty clear that we'll be taking the accelerated japan route, and the worst of that with japan is the fact that we bailed it out, no ones around to bail us out. We basically have a generation of children who are now the old, who spurned and wasted the resources given to them in poor stewardship, and who failed to pass them and the advantaged environment on to their children, instead choosing tyrannical to disadvantage their children through control and clutching power to the last of their days and all the destruction that comes thereafter. A fall of empire. They clutched at the resources so heavily and disadvantaged their own children to the point where significantly less people were in a position to actually be having children themselves, both because of the intolerable and torturous acts which have become so commonplace today but also the resources required to keep the old alive significantly outweighed the resources to foster children. There is an opportunity cost for everything. A Deflationary depopulation is almost inevitable.
- thr0w 1y ago
  > intolerable and torturous acts which have become so commonplace today What are you referring to?
  - trod1234 1y ago
    The vast generalized systemic malaise of corruption that afflicts America both in business, and politics. It is most commonly expressed in process which is designed to isolate, strip of agency, impose cognitive dissonance (through deception and lies), create trauma loops (structured circularly with push-pull dynamics), and utilize sophisticated psychological blindspots that every person has; primarily to induce inconsistent internal states of confusion beneath cognition, which creates psychological stress beyond the point of coping for physiological effect. Define intolerable and torturous acts rationally by functional element from case studies, you will find the elements in aggregate nearly everywhere you look. That wasn't always the case. Its under different names, and called different things but the elements are all there. Education, Business, Politics, the sheer number of places is endless. The work of a generation. For example, Master Data Management is all about creating dossiers of customers for targeting your most profitable customers with extras; while simultaneously reducing finite resources required by basic services that are given to your baseline customer (beyond the point of service failure, just shy of the point of fraud). Ever wonder about that systemic issue where a ticket you opened, described it properly, and it has a straightforward resolution, but its automatically closed as resolved 20-30 days later with no action taken and no reprimand or escalation path that's effective and it can't be reopened. Or that CSR doom loop where they transfer you so many times taking advantage of the trunk line timeout after a signaling change where the phone disconnects (x minutes after the first signaled transfer), or the lies about higher than normal call volume which aren't actually based on averages and always apply... The loss of some needed benefit because someone decided in error that requirements weren't met for that benefit, depriving you immediately, with no recourse. Like paypall freezing your connected bank account because of a chargeback that was illegitimate on the sellers side. People blind themselves because this is everywhere, and it shouldn't be, but there is no one capable of stopping it that isn't also more incentivized to continue it for profit. Who benefits, what recourse, what's required for a rule of law, and what happened in the two decades leading up to 1776 that showed what happens when a rule of law no longer functions. Coercion is the purposeful application of psychological stress beyond the point of coping to induce outcomes. While a little funny, if it weren't so close to the truth Agents of Shield got this mostly right except that its everywhere: "Take a deep breath, calm your mind, compliance will be rewarded. Are you willing to comply?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEikUtQKbHk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEikUtQKbHk
carefulfungi 1y ago
Trump's stated goal is to deport 4M people (by deporting 3k people per day). They count border crossing apprehensions in this number, so this isn't 4M current residents. The government currently claims [1] 9,740 border crossing "encounters" per month. I'm unsure if it is correct to count these as deportations - but assuming so - then these account for ~480,000 of the 4M target. Leaving ~3.5M current residents to be deported. Or roughly 1% of the current US population. https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-enc...
maxweylandt 1y ago
I also suspect using 2020 as a baseline will inflate how large the increases appear. Cursory google, but this dataset suggests pretty steady number apart from the covid downturn and now the recent crackdown: https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/usa/united-states/net-migration https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/usa/uni...
seanmcdirmid 1y ago
Using 2020 as a comparison basis for anything should be illegal. “Hey look after immigration dropped a lot because all work dried up, immigration increased a lot relative to that!”

by Oras 1y ago

trod1234 1y ago

There aren't enough jobs because we are stuck in a money-printing loop thanks to the baby boomers. The dynamics and debasement floor prevent new entrants from entering the market while regulation cripples those trying to keep things going. Concentrating and sieving the money-supply into non-productive companies on a moonshot bet to eliminate capital formation and one party that forms the basis for the economic cycle. Demographics are destiny. Its pretty clear that we'll be taking the accelerated japan route, and the worst of that with japan is the fact that we bailed it out, no ones around to bail us out. We basically have a generation of children who are now the old, who spurned and wasted the resources given to them in poor stewardship, and who failed to pass them and the advantaged environment on to their children, instead choosing tyrannical to disadvantage their children through control and clutching power to the last of their days and all the destruction that comes thereafter. A fall of empire. They clutched at the resources so heavily and disadvantaged their own children to the point where significantly less people were in a position to actually be having children themselves, both because of the intolerable and torturous acts which have become so commonplace today but also the resources required to keep the old alive significantly outweighed the resources to foster children. There is an opportunity cost for everything. A Deflationary depopulation is almost inevitable.

thr0w 1y ago
> intolerable and torturous acts which have become so commonplace today What are you referring to?
- trod1234 1y ago
  The vast generalized systemic malaise of corruption that afflicts America both in business, and politics. It is most commonly expressed in process which is designed to isolate, strip of agency, impose cognitive dissonance (through deception and lies), create trauma loops (structured circularly with push-pull dynamics), and utilize sophisticated psychological blindspots that every person has; primarily to induce inconsistent internal states of confusion beneath cognition, which creates psychological stress beyond the point of coping for physiological effect. Define intolerable and torturous acts rationally by functional element from case studies, you will find the elements in aggregate nearly everywhere you look. That wasn't always the case. Its under different names, and called different things but the elements are all there. Education, Business, Politics, the sheer number of places is endless. The work of a generation. For example, Master Data Management is all about creating dossiers of customers for targeting your most profitable customers with extras; while simultaneously reducing finite resources required by basic services that are given to your baseline customer (beyond the point of service failure, just shy of the point of fraud). Ever wonder about that systemic issue where a ticket you opened, described it properly, and it has a straightforward resolution, but its automatically closed as resolved 20-30 days later with no action taken and no reprimand or escalation path that's effective and it can't be reopened. Or that CSR doom loop where they transfer you so many times taking advantage of the trunk line timeout after a signaling change where the phone disconnects (x minutes after the first signaled transfer), or the lies about higher than normal call volume which aren't actually based on averages and always apply... The loss of some needed benefit because someone decided in error that requirements weren't met for that benefit, depriving you immediately, with no recourse. Like paypall freezing your connected bank account because of a chargeback that was illegitimate on the sellers side. People blind themselves because this is everywhere, and it shouldn't be, but there is no one capable of stopping it that isn't also more incentivized to continue it for profit. Who benefits, what recourse, what's required for a rule of law, and what happened in the two decades leading up to 1776 that showed what happens when a rule of law no longer functions. Coercion is the purposeful application of psychological stress beyond the point of coping to induce outcomes. While a little funny, if it weren't so close to the truth Agents of Shield got this mostly right except that its everywhere: "Take a deep breath, calm your mind, compliance will be rewarded. Are you willing to comply?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEikUtQKbHk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEikUtQKbHk

carefulfungi 1y ago

Trump's stated goal is to deport 4M people (by deporting 3k people per day). They count border crossing apprehensions in this number, so this isn't 4M current residents. The government currently claims [1] 9,740 border crossing "encounters" per month. I'm unsure if it is correct to count these as deportations - but assuming so - then these account for ~480,000 of the 4M target. Leaving ~3.5M current residents to be deported. Or roughly 1% of the current US population. https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-enc...

maxweylandt 1y ago

I also suspect using 2020 as a baseline will inflate how large the increases appear. Cursory google, but this dataset suggests pretty steady number apart from the covid downturn and now the recent crackdown: https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/usa/united-states/net-migration https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/usa/uni...

seanmcdirmid 1y ago

Using 2020 as a comparison basis for anything should be illegal. “Hey look after immigration dropped a lot because all work dried up, immigration increased a lot relative to that!”