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Unfortunately this is an argument from incredulity.

• AnimalMuppet 1y ago
  Well, you don't present much more than an argument from credulity, which isn't all that convincing either. Even if I accept your premise (AI continues to improve at the existing pace), I don't see how AI is going to replace, say, welders, in a year. Or even bankers. (Yeah, an AI might be able to do the financial part. But bankers - as opposed to tellers - are about relationship with customers, and the AI isn't going to substitute there.)
  • catigula 1y ago
    I made two basic arguments: 1. The exponential curve of AI progress 2. The lack of any mechanism that will immediately wall off AI progress at this specific exponential part of the curve >I don't see how AI is going to replace, say, welders, in a year. This article is about white-collar jobs. However, if human-level intelligence (let alone surpassing human-level intelligence) just becomes a matter of compute, robotics will quickly follow. That being said I'd expect this to be years, not a year. > But bankers - as opposed to tellers - are about relationship with customers, and the AI isn't going to substitute there Are you sure about that? Because even GPT-4o is an example of how people are very hungry for relationships presented by these AIs.