4 ms·

Why is it any different than betting on the stock market? Buying a house is also a bet. Even if Americans view it as a bad thing, it should be allowed.

Isamu 1y ago
The odds are manipulated to give the gambling company the advantage. Big winners are identified and dropped. It is designed to drain money from gamblers. Stocks are not that, in general. A particular fraudulent investment could be that. Crypto investment comes to mind.
- SJC_Hacker 1y ago
  I’m not sure what you mean by odds being manipulated. The bookmaker will generally adjust odds to where the money is being placed. Example, in American football if a team opens up as a 7 point favorite and betters put more money on the underdog than the favorite, the line gets smaller so more will take the favorite. Generally the opening line is what the book will think half the betters are willing to place on the favorite, and half on the underdog. Doesn’t always work out that way which is why you see lines move. Also not sure what you mean by winners
  - c6400sc 1y ago
    Listen to season 4 of Michael Lewis' podcast. He covers the downsides in detail. https://www.pushkin.fm/podcasts/against-the-rules https://www.pushkin.fm/podcasts/against-the-rules I think this is the ep that gets into the most detail, but I haven't read the transcript. https://www.pushkin.fm/podcasts/against-the-rules/vegas-sports-bookies-on-old-school-betting https://www.pushkin.fm/podcasts/against-the-rules/vegas-spor... IIRC, if you're too professional or too lucky, the betting apps will restrict you and then lock you out. They only want the dumb money playing.
  - TimorousBestie 1y ago
    > Also not sure what you mean by winners https://www.vegas-aces.com/articles/how-betting-sites-limit-winning-players/ https://www.vegas-aces.com/articles/how-betting-sites-limit-... Various forms of this have been practiced in traditional casinos for almost a century with increasing sophistication, it’s a well-established art by now.
- Hamuko 1y ago
  You don’t need to even win to get banned (limited from making bets larger than a couple of dollars). You just need to make bets that look too smart and might result you winning in the future. https://youtu.be/XZvXWVztJoY?t=667 https://youtu.be/XZvXWVztJoY?t=667 Sports betting is just looking for chumps that have little to no chance of winning.
bberenberg 1y ago
Because the outcomes and demographics for sports betting vs the other two show different aggregate money movements and we make judgements about what we consider to be acceptably and unacceptably informed and consenting risk accepting behavior.
pinkmuffinere 1y ago
I think this is a good question, I’m sorry you’re being downvoted. I think the difference is that buying/betting on a house or stocks are not a zero-sum game. It is feasible for everyone to buy a house, all the houses to increase in real-world value, and everyone benefit. Likewise with stocks. And on top of that effect, the bets being made are useful for society at large to make better plans, because they are a measure of society’s best predictions. Sports betting on the other hand, is truly zero-sum (although I think you could make an argument that it's actually worse than zero sum). Additionally, it is not useful for society to predict which team will win some set of games. This is just wasted effort on a curiosity. There’s nothing wrong with that effort as entertainment, but it is bad to incentivize our minds to take up sports betting, as opposed to say finance, engineering, art, or anything productive.
- SJC_Hacker 1y ago
  Options markets are zero sum.
  - RandomLensman 1y ago
    Why? Both sides could use hedging, both sides could derive economic benefits, etc.
    - SJC_Hacker 1y ago
      On a per transaction level, for every dollar someone makes on a put/call option, the other person has to lose equivalent. Even more when you factor in exchange fees Hedging is just an additional transaction that limits the damage if the bet doesn't pay off. You can do the same thing in gambling.
  - bob1029 1y ago
    The important distinction between gambling and options is that there are many additional information sources available to bias the outcome. Options are a Bayesian game. Jane Street is much more likely to win than I am, but there are still rare cases where I could come out ahead with very high certainty (I know something they don't). Card counting and being escorted out of the casino aside, there aren't any ways to acquire private information in a gambling context.
fullshark 1y ago
Stocks have positive expected returns: the risk premium. Sports bets have negative expected returns in aggregate and if you are good enough to only bet the ones you can spot with positive expected returns they ban you from the platform.
- charcircuit 1y ago
  >they ban you from the platform Use a respectable platform that doesn't do that then.
  - jpk 1y ago
    There's no such thing. The house always wins or the business collapses.
    - charcircuit 1y ago
      Yet, Polymarket exists where no one takes a cut* as it all happens on a blockchain. *there are small gas fees for sending transactions on the blockchain
  - liquidise 1y ago
    Are you familiar with any? I know people who bet on sports for a living and one of their biggest operational challenges is keeping accounts unbanned long enough to make consistent income.
    - charcircuit 1y ago
      Polymarket.
- skippyboxedhero 1y ago
  Stocks do not have positive expected return. The return on the average stock is 0% in the US which is negative after fees (this is a common misconception, market returns are positive only because large companies get larger and this is contextual, when this isn't true then even the market will lose money). This is to say nothing of 0DTE options. There is a risk premium but this premium can be positive or negative. It has been negative in many countries, do you suggest they ban stocks? I don't think stocks are the same thing as gambling btw. But it is significantly more complex in that they overlap, some financial products clearly exist in the US because gambling was illegal. A sports bet is clearly not an investment, but neither is a ODTE option. Both are entertainment, the former probably more logically so than the latter, I am not sure what appeal that latter can have other than to gambling addicts.
WarOnPrivacy 1y ago
> Why is it any different than betting on the stock market? We could honestly say gambling and investments were similar - if they typically had similar outcomes. In late 1990s, I set up two customers (in retirement) with PCs and internet. One was a day trader and the other did online casinos. After a year they were both about as good as their contemporaries. The day trader made more money than he lost but I don't know how much. The gambler hid his habit from his wife. He lost their entire retirement savings, maxed out their credit cards, got more cards and maxed those out - and took out 2 mortgages on their formerly paid-for house. It ended their marriage. These truly aren't similar outcomes.
pjc50 1y ago
Certain forms of stock market operations are indeed banned from retail - for example "binary options" in the UK.
tgv 1y ago
> Why is it any different than ... Buying a house Because your money will at least get you a roof over your head. It's not a bet because it involves an element of chance. I can't believe you're seriously raising such an argument.
48terry 1y ago
I buy a house to live in it, WTF are you buying one for?

Isamu 1y ago

The odds are manipulated to give the gambling company the advantage. Big winners are identified and dropped. It is designed to drain money from gamblers. Stocks are not that, in general. A particular fraudulent investment could be that. Crypto investment comes to mind.

SJC_Hacker 1y ago
I’m not sure what you mean by odds being manipulated. The bookmaker will generally adjust odds to where the money is being placed. Example, in American football if a team opens up as a 7 point favorite and betters put more money on the underdog than the favorite, the line gets smaller so more will take the favorite. Generally the opening line is what the book will think half the betters are willing to place on the favorite, and half on the underdog. Doesn’t always work out that way which is why you see lines move. Also not sure what you mean by winners
- c6400sc 1y ago
  Listen to season 4 of Michael Lewis' podcast. He covers the downsides in detail. https://www.pushkin.fm/podcasts/against-the-rules https://www.pushkin.fm/podcasts/against-the-rules I think this is the ep that gets into the most detail, but I haven't read the transcript. https://www.pushkin.fm/podcasts/against-the-rules/vegas-sports-bookies-on-old-school-betting https://www.pushkin.fm/podcasts/against-the-rules/vegas-spor... IIRC, if you're too professional or too lucky, the betting apps will restrict you and then lock you out. They only want the dumb money playing.
- TimorousBestie 1y ago
  > Also not sure what you mean by winners https://www.vegas-aces.com/articles/how-betting-sites-limit-winning-players/ https://www.vegas-aces.com/articles/how-betting-sites-limit-... Various forms of this have been practiced in traditional casinos for almost a century with increasing sophistication, it’s a well-established art by now.
Hamuko 1y ago
You don’t need to even win to get banned (limited from making bets larger than a couple of dollars). You just need to make bets that look too smart and might result you winning in the future. https://youtu.be/XZvXWVztJoY?t=667 https://youtu.be/XZvXWVztJoY?t=667 Sports betting is just looking for chumps that have little to no chance of winning.

bberenberg 1y ago

Because the outcomes and demographics for sports betting vs the other two show different aggregate money movements and we make judgements about what we consider to be acceptably and unacceptably informed and consenting risk accepting behavior.

pinkmuffinere 1y ago

I think this is a good question, I’m sorry you’re being downvoted. I think the difference is that buying/betting on a house or stocks are not a zero-sum game. It is feasible for everyone to buy a house, all the houses to increase in real-world value, and everyone benefit. Likewise with stocks. And on top of that effect, the bets being made are useful for society at large to make better plans, because they are a measure of society’s best predictions. Sports betting on the other hand, is truly zero-sum (although I think you could make an argument that it's actually worse than zero sum). Additionally, it is not useful for society to predict which team will win some set of games. This is just wasted effort on a curiosity. There’s nothing wrong with that effort as entertainment, but it is bad to incentivize our minds to take up sports betting, as opposed to say finance, engineering, art, or anything productive.

SJC_Hacker 1y ago
Options markets are zero sum.
- RandomLensman 1y ago
  Why? Both sides could use hedging, both sides could derive economic benefits, etc.
  - SJC_Hacker 1y ago
    On a per transaction level, for every dollar someone makes on a put/call option, the other person has to lose equivalent. Even more when you factor in exchange fees Hedging is just an additional transaction that limits the damage if the bet doesn't pay off. You can do the same thing in gambling.
- bob1029 1y ago
  The important distinction between gambling and options is that there are many additional information sources available to bias the outcome. Options are a Bayesian game. Jane Street is much more likely to win than I am, but there are still rare cases where I could come out ahead with very high certainty (I know something they don't). Card counting and being escorted out of the casino aside, there aren't any ways to acquire private information in a gambling context.

fullshark 1y ago

Stocks have positive expected returns: the risk premium. Sports bets have negative expected returns in aggregate and if you are good enough to only bet the ones you can spot with positive expected returns they ban you from the platform.

charcircuit 1y ago
>they ban you from the platform Use a respectable platform that doesn't do that then.
- jpk 1y ago
  There's no such thing. The house always wins or the business collapses.
  - charcircuit 1y ago
    Yet, Polymarket exists where no one takes a cut* as it all happens on a blockchain. *there are small gas fees for sending transactions on the blockchain
- liquidise 1y ago
  Are you familiar with any? I know people who bet on sports for a living and one of their biggest operational challenges is keeping accounts unbanned long enough to make consistent income.
  - charcircuit 1y ago
    Polymarket.
skippyboxedhero 1y ago
Stocks do not have positive expected return. The return on the average stock is 0% in the US which is negative after fees (this is a common misconception, market returns are positive only because large companies get larger and this is contextual, when this isn't true then even the market will lose money). This is to say nothing of 0DTE options. There is a risk premium but this premium can be positive or negative. It has been negative in many countries, do you suggest they ban stocks? I don't think stocks are the same thing as gambling btw. But it is significantly more complex in that they overlap, some financial products clearly exist in the US because gambling was illegal. A sports bet is clearly not an investment, but neither is a ODTE option. Both are entertainment, the former probably more logically so than the latter, I am not sure what appeal that latter can have other than to gambling addicts.

WarOnPrivacy 1y ago

> Why is it any different than betting on the stock market? We could honestly say gambling and investments were similar - if they typically had similar outcomes. In late 1990s, I set up two customers (in retirement) with PCs and internet. One was a day trader and the other did online casinos. After a year they were both about as good as their contemporaries. The day trader made more money than he lost but I don't know how much. The gambler hid his habit from his wife. He lost their entire retirement savings, maxed out their credit cards, got more cards and maxed those out - and took out 2 mortgages on their formerly paid-for house. It ended their marriage. These truly aren't similar outcomes.

pjc50 1y ago

Certain forms of stock market operations are indeed banned from retail - for example "binary options" in the UK.

tgv 1y ago

> Why is it any different than ... Buying a house Because your money will at least get you a roof over your head. It's not a bet because it involves an element of chance. I can't believe you're seriously raising such an argument.

48terry 1y ago

I buy a house to live in it, WTF are you buying one for?