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Google has led AI research for years with Google Brain and DeepMind, but they have been overtaken by OpenAI now, and perhaps soon also by other players who are

Google has led AI research for years with Google Brain and DeepMind, but they have been overtaken by OpenAI now, and perhaps soon also by other players who are building gigantic data centers. Google's core mistake was arguably that they were far too late in coming up with a model that was competitive with GPT-4. Now ChatGPT has likely more than an order of magnitude more subscribers than Gemini. At the same time, Google's search engine is increasingly replaced by ChatGPT, drying up their main source of revenue: search ads. Recently one of their top reasoning researchers switched to OpenAI, likely leaking Google's internal reasoning secret sauce, if they even knew anything that OpenAI didn't. I doubt they will catch up.

dboreham 1y ago
ChatGPT has no revenue model. Once it begins degrading results with advertising content, people won't use it. They're only using it in preference to Google today because it is ad-free.
- cubefox 1y ago
  > ChatGPT has no revenue model. They have, subscriptions: https://www.reuters.com/technology/openais-first-half-revenue-rises-16-about-43-billion-information-reports-2025-09-30/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/openais-first-half-revenu...
  - bitpush 1y ago
    You can look at comparables to see how that'll workout Arguably the most mainstream and well-known subscription company is Netflix. People all around the world know about it, most have subscriptions and yet it hasn't "taken over" the world. That's before we consider any other company (Anthropic, Google) can undercut OpenAI in price or just simply be good Unless something drastically changes, OpenAI will have tough time justifying high valuation.
Yoric 1y ago
To the best of my understanding, OpenAI is investigating exactly one path to AI, while Google has always been investigating many. I actually believe that Google will survive OpenAI.

dboreham 1y ago

ChatGPT has no revenue model. Once it begins degrading results with advertising content, people won't use it. They're only using it in preference to Google today because it is ad-free.

cubefox 1y ago
> ChatGPT has no revenue model. They have, subscriptions: https://www.reuters.com/technology/openais-first-half-revenue-rises-16-about-43-billion-information-reports-2025-09-30/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/openais-first-half-revenu...
- bitpush 1y ago
  You can look at comparables to see how that'll workout Arguably the most mainstream and well-known subscription company is Netflix. People all around the world know about it, most have subscriptions and yet it hasn't "taken over" the world. That's before we consider any other company (Anthropic, Google) can undercut OpenAI in price or just simply be good Unless something drastically changes, OpenAI will have tough time justifying high valuation.

Yoric 1y ago

To the best of my understanding, OpenAI is investigating exactly one path to AI, while Google has always been investigating many. I actually believe that Google will survive OpenAI.