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Nit: the ADP numbers are not survey based. They come directly from adp’s payroll data set which is immense but biased. So you don’t see hiring/firing delay in t
by kasey_junk 1y ago
Nit: the ADP numbers are not survey based. They come directly from adp’s payroll data set which is immense but biased. So you don’t see hiring/firing delay in the birth/death data like you do with the bls stats, but actual dataset bias is a factor. The more murky part of their numbers is how they calibrate to the bls numbers.
- JumpCrisscross 1y ago> the ADP numbers are not survey based Correct, why I said “BLS surveys and payroll data.” > you don’t see hiring/firing delay in the birth/death data like you do with the bls stats, but actual dataset bias is a factor True.
- busterarm 1y agoAlso biased by being only the customers of ADP. Sure, that's 1/5 of US jobs, but it's also going to be concentrated in some industries more than others -- would be nice to see how that lines up with where job adds and losses landed.