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Satirical IG post I saw from a college professor: "In 2050, I'll be getting emails from high school students about research opportunities, because the average c

Satirical IG post I saw from a college professor: "In 2050, I'll be getting emails from high school students about research opportunities, because the average college will require 2 publications to get in and will cost $500k." Fertility rates are plummeting globally for this reason in addition to housing, and earth has reached its carrying capacity. There are no entry-level jobs, because "entry level" now requires years of experience: https://www.zippia.com/advice/entry-level-jobs-pay-experience-by-industry/ https://www.zippia.com/advice/entry-level-jobs-pay-experienc.... If you decide to have kids today, you should factor in the cost that they may significant require financial support into their 30s. I know a couple of guys over 40, including a laid-off SWE, living with their parents again.

ge96 1y ago
The fertility rates thing, is it true everywhere seems poorer countries/people are used to having 4+ children.
- carabiner 1y ago
  It's true everywhere except for Africa. Poorer countries in Latin America are having wayyy fewer babies.
- ipaddr 1y ago
  At some point we will start paying men/women to have babies for others.
com2kid 1y ago
> "In 2050, I'll be getting emails from high school students about research opportunities, because the average college will require 2 publications to get in and will cost $500k." From my general understanding, those are already the numbers for elite colleges. I hear complaints about kids that have published research, have started local charities, and have completed most of an undergrad degree already, that they are still getting rejected from top colleges.
- sarchertech 1y ago
  Harvard costs about $350k all in for 4 years. But if you make under $200k a year they wave tuition, and over that you start paying a prorated rate until assistance phases out.
- carabiner 1y ago
  Yeah it's extraordinary how prepared today's elite undergrads are. Population demand has outpaced spots in these colleges, and so that's why I don't believe "grade inflation" is a thing. The kids are just way, way smarter and more productive than 60 years ago, just as workers are.
  - ipaddr 1y ago
    Kids cheat today massively more and get parents to demand changes to grades which is something you wouldn't see 60 years ago. It's not higher productively its lower morals and less buy-in from teachers who give in to pressure or look the other way because their authority has lowered. Plus they can't hit students anymore.
  - jimbokun 1y ago
    And thus smart and talented high school students are working twice as hard these days with nothing to show for it.
  - Esophagus4 1y ago
    This is obviously selection bias, because as a hiring manager, I generally see the most motivated students. But holy smokes, there are some A-game kids out there that are prepared and willing to put in the work for an opportunity. I don't remember it being this competitive when I was a student. Maybe I wasn't in that top echelon like they are, but still.
- triceratops 1y ago
  Well yeah if they've completed most of the degree already why admit them /s
- mothballed 1y ago
sarchertech 1y ago
The problems that you’re highlighting are self correcting. If the fertility rate drops, houses and spots at colleges become more available.
- baq 1y ago
  Average age of a home buyer in the us is what? 50-60ish? Should be 20-25.
  - Tempest1981 1y ago
    38 for first-time homebuyers (2024). 56 overall.
- piker 1y ago
  Agree with both, and you can see this in prep school admissions in the UK, but that adjustment might take a generation.
  - sarchertech 1y ago
    Definitely might take time. But a generation is 15 years. The timeline the OP was talking about was 30-40 years from now.
- bell-cot 1y ago
  True...eventually. But recall the old saw about how long the market can stay irrational.
  - sarchertech 1y ago
    100%, but the OP is talking about 30-40 years in the future.
    - bell-cot 1y ago
      Yeah. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decades https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decades
nostrademons 1y ago
I feel like this view suffers from https://xkcd.com/605/ https://xkcd.com/605/. The future is not a linear progression from the present; as linear (or exponential!) extrapolations become progressively more absurd, they get replaced by qualitatively different systems that fit peoples' needs as they exist now. I have young kids. I don't worry too much about how they're going to afford college education or get a job or afford to retire, because I don't believe college or jobs or retirement will exist in the form it does today. They'll be replaced by systems that actually work in the world that they'll grow up in. My job is to help them survive, and ideally to keep them fed and clothed and housed in the meantime. I'm training them to be adaptable, to think and act for themselves, and to have a good grounding in fundamental skills like reading/writing/rithmetic that I don't think will go anywhere. But the specifics of today's world will definitely be going away, because today's world doesn't work.
- SoftTalker 1y ago
  I'm not sure why you think that. From what I can see, the undergraduate college experience of today is basically the same as it was in the 1980s. And since then we've had the entire rise of the internet, mobile tech, social media, and all the rest of it. Kids still live in dorms and sit in lecture halls and listen to professors lecture. Why do you think it's going to be much different 15-20 years from now? Sure there is a lot that can be done online, but that hasn't really impacted the fundamental experience of "going to college" for most young adults who decide to do that.
  - nostrademons 1y ago
    The cost and benefits have fallen way out of whack. The average college tuition has tripled (after inflation-adjusting) since 1980 [1]. Meanwhile, an increasing number of college graduates are unemployed, and the wage premium for a college education is declining. The college experience hasn't changed much (indeed, if anything it's improved) because colleges are sinking large amounts of money into providing a good experience. That, after all, is what a lot of students base their purchase decisions on. But the point of college isn't to be a 4-year party & vacation, it's to get an education that will help you the rest of your life. Increasingly a college education doesn't help you lead a better life. [1] https://www.bestcolleges.com/research/college-costs-over-time/ https://www.bestcolleges.com/research/college-costs-over-tim...
meindnoch 1y ago
We need a war.
- triceratops 1y ago
  Are you enlisting?
- Lammy 1y ago
  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNG-gYjneeA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNG-gYjneeA
Lammy 1y ago
> and earth has reached its carrying capacity [citation needed]
- ceejayoz 1y ago
  Why would a citation be needed for a "satirical IG post" set in 2050? Are you providing the time machine?
  - Lammy 1y ago
    Read the comment again. The quotation mark ends one sentence before the part I'm talking about.
nozzlegear 1y ago
Tax land value and legalize housing!
zzgo 1y ago
> There are no entry-level jobs, because "entry level" now requires years of experience This was my experience leaving college in the dot-com bust 25 years ago, and I heard it was similar for graduates around 2008-2012.
BobaFloutist 1y ago
> Fertility rates are plummeting globally for this reason in addition to housing That's very much not the reason for plummeting fertility rates, those are just your pet issues. It's rare for people to acknowledge the true cause of reduced fertility, because it's a huge bummer and the only even remotely plausible solutions are pretty much unthinkable for all but the most regressive.

ge96 1y ago

The fertility rates thing, is it true everywhere seems poorer countries/people are used to having 4+ children.

carabiner 1y ago
It's true everywhere except for Africa. Poorer countries in Latin America are having wayyy fewer babies.
ipaddr 1y ago
At some point we will start paying men/women to have babies for others.

com2kid 1y ago

> "In 2050, I'll be getting emails from high school students about research opportunities, because the average college will require 2 publications to get in and will cost $500k." From my general understanding, those are already the numbers for elite colleges. I hear complaints about kids that have published research, have started local charities, and have completed most of an undergrad degree already, that they are still getting rejected from top colleges.

sarchertech 1y ago
Harvard costs about $350k all in for 4 years. But if you make under $200k a year they wave tuition, and over that you start paying a prorated rate until assistance phases out.
carabiner 1y ago
Yeah it's extraordinary how prepared today's elite undergrads are. Population demand has outpaced spots in these colleges, and so that's why I don't believe "grade inflation" is a thing. The kids are just way, way smarter and more productive than 60 years ago, just as workers are.
- ipaddr 1y ago
  Kids cheat today massively more and get parents to demand changes to grades which is something you wouldn't see 60 years ago. It's not higher productively its lower morals and less buy-in from teachers who give in to pressure or look the other way because their authority has lowered. Plus they can't hit students anymore.
- jimbokun 1y ago
  And thus smart and talented high school students are working twice as hard these days with nothing to show for it.
- Esophagus4 1y ago
  This is obviously selection bias, because as a hiring manager, I generally see the most motivated students. But holy smokes, there are some A-game kids out there that are prepared and willing to put in the work for an opportunity. I don't remember it being this competitive when I was a student. Maybe I wasn't in that top echelon like they are, but still.
triceratops 1y ago
Well yeah if they've completed most of the degree already why admit them /s
mothballed 1y ago

sarchertech 1y ago

The problems that you’re highlighting are self correcting. If the fertility rate drops, houses and spots at colleges become more available.

baq 1y ago
Average age of a home buyer in the us is what? 50-60ish? Should be 20-25.
- Tempest1981 1y ago
  38 for first-time homebuyers (2024). 56 overall.
piker 1y ago
Agree with both, and you can see this in prep school admissions in the UK, but that adjustment might take a generation.
- sarchertech 1y ago
  Definitely might take time. But a generation is 15 years. The timeline the OP was talking about was 30-40 years from now.
bell-cot 1y ago
True...eventually. But recall the old saw about how long the market can stay irrational.
- sarchertech 1y ago
  100%, but the OP is talking about 30-40 years in the future.
  - bell-cot 1y ago
    Yeah. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decades https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decades

nostrademons 1y ago

I feel like this view suffers from https://xkcd.com/605/ https://xkcd.com/605/. The future is not a linear progression from the present; as linear (or exponential!) extrapolations become progressively more absurd, they get replaced by qualitatively different systems that fit peoples' needs as they exist now. I have young kids. I don't worry too much about how they're going to afford college education or get a job or afford to retire, because I don't believe college or jobs or retirement will exist in the form it does today. They'll be replaced by systems that actually work in the world that they'll grow up in. My job is to help them survive, and ideally to keep them fed and clothed and housed in the meantime. I'm training them to be adaptable, to think and act for themselves, and to have a good grounding in fundamental skills like reading/writing/rithmetic that I don't think will go anywhere. But the specifics of today's world will definitely be going away, because today's world doesn't work.

SoftTalker 1y ago
I'm not sure why you think that. From what I can see, the undergraduate college experience of today is basically the same as it was in the 1980s. And since then we've had the entire rise of the internet, mobile tech, social media, and all the rest of it. Kids still live in dorms and sit in lecture halls and listen to professors lecture. Why do you think it's going to be much different 15-20 years from now? Sure there is a lot that can be done online, but that hasn't really impacted the fundamental experience of "going to college" for most young adults who decide to do that.
- nostrademons 1y ago
  The cost and benefits have fallen way out of whack. The average college tuition has tripled (after inflation-adjusting) since 1980 [1]. Meanwhile, an increasing number of college graduates are unemployed, and the wage premium for a college education is declining. The college experience hasn't changed much (indeed, if anything it's improved) because colleges are sinking large amounts of money into providing a good experience. That, after all, is what a lot of students base their purchase decisions on. But the point of college isn't to be a 4-year party & vacation, it's to get an education that will help you the rest of your life. Increasingly a college education doesn't help you lead a better life. [1] https://www.bestcolleges.com/research/college-costs-over-time/ https://www.bestcolleges.com/research/college-costs-over-tim...

meindnoch 1y ago

We need a war.

triceratops 1y ago
Are you enlisting?
Lammy 1y ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNG-gYjneeA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNG-gYjneeA

Lammy 1y ago

> and earth has reached its carrying capacity [citation needed]

ceejayoz 1y ago
Why would a citation be needed for a "satirical IG post" set in 2050? Are you providing the time machine?
- Lammy 1y ago
  Read the comment again. The quotation mark ends one sentence before the part I'm talking about.

nozzlegear 1y ago

Tax land value and legalize housing!

zzgo 1y ago

> There are no entry-level jobs, because "entry level" now requires years of experience This was my experience leaving college in the dot-com bust 25 years ago, and I heard it was similar for graduates around 2008-2012.

BobaFloutist 1y ago

> Fertility rates are plummeting globally for this reason in addition to housing That's very much not the reason for plummeting fertility rates, those are just your pet issues. It's rare for people to acknowledge the true cause of reduced fertility, because it's a huge bummer and the only even remotely plausible solutions are pretty much unthinkable for all but the most regressive.