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I don't disagree, but this has been the trend since the 1990s. This was the whole question of "globalization" and all the debates about NAFTA etc. The only anom
by agentcoops 1y ago
I don't disagree, but this has been the trend since the 1990s. This was the whole question of "globalization" and all the debates about NAFTA etc. The only anomaly was that people came to believe (in 2020? maybe even 2016...) that "globalization was over" and that now we saw the reverse trend. That seems to be leading people to now believe that this offshoring is something new, when the most likely interpretation is that it never went away.
None of the above, however, begins to touch the question of whether AI has, is or will introduce an entirely new dynamic into the equation. I'm not sure myself of the answer to this question, but I believe it's a very important one and shouldn't be dismissed too quickly -- certainly not by the continued presence of an undeniable tendency of labor markets that has long been observed.
- ozim 1y agoSeems like you missed H1B visa rules change. They basically move all H1B from US to India not to deal with $100k per employee. Nothing changes just Indian guys move back to India and will be spending money there instead of sending some money there.
- DebtDeflation 1y agoLabor really is not fungible that way. On shore H1B Indians generally are higher skilled than offshore Indians, perform different roles at companies, and are paid more. Many of them could have chosen different careers than Tech and likely will if they move back to India.
- malfist 1y agoOr: instead of talented software engineers around the world being drawn to the US, they stay home and build deep talent pools in their home country or in the next non-US SV. In the long run the onshore/offshore becomes less and less about quality and cost tradeoffs. We're giving away our long term dominance of tech for xenophobia and the possibility of short term job growth
- lisbbb 1y agoIt's not xenophobia anymore--when major percentages of US grads, of all ethnicities, can't find jobs, there is a fundamentally larger issue at stake here.
- anovikov 1y agoWhy not just move US H1Bs back to India and keep paying them US wages? They will be filthy rich in India, their living standards will literally skyrocket. They will be highly unlikely to leave. And keep them on same roles as they did in US.
- alephnerd 1y agoWhy do you think GCCs now exist? The leadership in a GCC are all ex-US EMs, PMs, PMMs, and FP&As who are given the option to take a haircut on their US salary and build a hiring pipeline within India while meeting the company's hiring requirements. Tech salaries in India have already converged with much of the EU, especially for top talent.
- JambalayaJimbo 1y agoRemote workers, especially if they’re in a different time zone, are likely not going to be as effective as onshore in-person workers.
- array_key_first 1y agoLabor is not fungible, but that doesn't matter. What matters is if (largely stupid) investors and executives think labor is fungible. Which, from what I've seen, they do. Its not, and it will backfire, but that's never stopped anyone.
- agentcoops 1y agoTo be clear, I'm not 'missing' that -- I'm saying it's part of a trend since the 1990s ("globalization") that, for various reasons, people believed stopped in 2016/2020.
- lisbbb 1y agoWe don't even know yet because it doesn't take effect until 2026.