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Electric car sales were 20% of all sales, so 26% increase is hardly a "surge". Going from a low base this is supposed to be higher. I think what we are seeing

by m101 1y ago

Electric car sales were 20% of all sales, so 26% increase is hardly a "surge". Going from a low base this is supposed to be higher. I think what we are seeing is that electric car interest isn't as strong as governments hoped for. I used to own an electric car now I'm back to a hybrid. Q4 sales in the US will be interesting because of the removal of the tax credits and the increasing electricity prices that AI is causing. Low prices of fuel in the US means that it's not exactly cheaper to run an electric car in the US.

maelito 1y ago
> I think what we are seeing is that electric car interest isn't as strong as governments hoped for. I used to own an electric car now I'm back to a hybrid. In France, there is a wide anti-electric campaign. From the "leftist-green" media such as Reporterre, to the right wing ones. Same for political parties, from the left PCF to the right RN. It's a battle.
- phtrivier 1y ago
  I don't know how much the battle matters, compared to pure money. For example, according to this source, people bought less BEVs in May because... they want to benefit from the government subsidy later this year. So maybe the headline will read "incredible success" six months after having read "terrible failure". [1] Surprisingly, BEVs are _more_ visible in the country side (where many smaller models make complete sense as a "second car" for a household that needs to drop kids at school, get the groceries, etc...) than in cities. Never mind. Even more surprisingly, people do buy some French EVs, even though, well... our glorious national brands have spent the last few years working hard on removing the knobs from the autoradio, and that justified all the "R&D tax rebate" they could get, but sadly none was left for chemists and physicists to increase range, lower prices, etc... Again, go figure. [1] https://www.go-electra.com/fr/newsroom/ventes-voitures-electriques-2025/ https://www.go-electra.com/fr/newsroom/ventes-voitures-elect...
  - zorobo 1y ago
    > Surprisingly, BEVs are _more_ visible in the country side (where many smaller models make complete sense as a "second car" for a household that needs to drop kids at school, get the groceries, etc...) than in cities. Never mind. Not that surprising; countryside folks own houses and can charge at home for cheap, while city dwellers generally can't and have to use overpriced, inconvenient public charging.
- orwin 1y ago
  The PCF is arguing for development and of a subsidized Kei-like electric car (basically a 10k€ EV), and a retraining of car manufacturing workers before any punitive incentive (ZFE, carbon tax on car fuel). This is hardly anti-electric. I don't know about reporterre though, I've heard of them but I don't think they really have any influence on anyone other than Greenpeace afficionados. Also? The R5 is great, and I bet the backlog is really long.
  - maelito 1y ago
    The PCF was strongly against the interdiction of new thermal car sales in 2035. This is the kind of struggle that will kill small electric cars business opportunities. Even the "punitive" vocabulary is political and mostly comes from right-wind politicians. Yes the R5 is great and way cheaper than the mean car price.
orwin 1y ago
I agree with the spirit of your comment, but I disagree on the first sentence. If EV were 1% of all sales, a 26% increase would be very low indeed. A 26% increase when you have 20% of a stable market is basically a company getting from a fifth of the market to a fourth, in a year. That's _absolutely_ a surge. Increase 5% of your market share is crazy high.
- m101 1y ago
  I guess pedantically it would be 15% to 20% is what happened. I guess what I am also trying to say is that the capacity for production is there for much higher, but it's just not being utilised. See Tesla sales being flat/down, or the bloodbath in Chinese vehicle pricing.
  - orwin 1y ago
    Yeah, like I said I agree with the spirit of your comment, I was nitpicking because I thought that part was weakening a point I agreed with
onlyrealcuzzo 1y ago
Rome wasn't built in a day. You have to start somewhere. 26% growth on 20% pace is incredible market share gains in one year for virtually any market or company. There are no ICE manufacturers reading this news and genuinely saying, "oh wow, who cares, this is nothing, only started at 20%, next."
ViewTrick1002 1y ago
Does not take many 26% yearly increases from 20% to make up the entire market. 7 to be exact. Continuing the trend only BEVs would be sold by 2032 which is in line with goals to phase out production of new ICEs.
Sharlin 1y ago
Well, in this economical situation it absolutely isn't in most people's immediate plans to buy a new expensive car. But yes, also, the naive hope of many politicians was that the huge, thorny issue that is traffic emissions would just resolve itself by everybody magically switching to EVs, because actually effective measures to curb emissions are rather unpopular.
- storus 1y ago
  Much of PM2.5 particles is generated by tires. EVs are much harder on tires, often needing tire replacement after just 1 year. So on one hand, you get rid of PM2.5 from fossil fuels, on the other hand you increase tire PM2.5 five fold.
  - Sharlin 1y ago
    Yes. Though carbon emissions are of course the most burning issue, with emissions caused by traffic decreasing very slowly if at all, unlike other major CO2 sources. But indeed EVs only really solve a few of the many external costs of personal vehicles.
  - rmu09 1y ago
    You also get rid of brake dust (for the most part). This study https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2020/12/non-exhaust-particulate-emissions-from-road-transport_707739b7/4a4dc6ca-en.pdf https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/report... (page 95) sees nowhere near 5 fold increase of particles from tire wear with EVs, for lightweight EVs you get a significant reduction in overall particle emissions.
  - Yizahi 1y ago
    They are not much harder on tires. Most of the EVs (like 90%, excluding USA behemoths) are only 20-30% heavier than a ICE vehicle of the same class. There are plenty heavier cars on the roads for the last century. And where did you get this 1 year per tire metric? I see anecdotal reports that on EV with normal tires they last as long as on typical ICEs. I can't find any comprehensive report for either side for now.
duxup 1y ago
Increasing the % sold by 6% seems like a lot to me.
gilbetron 1y ago
If you invested in something that gave you 26% returns, you'd be ecstatic. 26% increase is fantastic.

by m101 1y ago

maelito 1y ago

> I think what we are seeing is that electric car interest isn't as strong as governments hoped for. I used to own an electric car now I'm back to a hybrid. In France, there is a wide anti-electric campaign. From the "leftist-green" media such as Reporterre, to the right wing ones. Same for political parties, from the left PCF to the right RN. It's a battle.

phtrivier 1y ago
I don't know how much the battle matters, compared to pure money. For example, according to this source, people bought less BEVs in May because... they want to benefit from the government subsidy later this year. So maybe the headline will read "incredible success" six months after having read "terrible failure". [1] Surprisingly, BEVs are _more_ visible in the country side (where many smaller models make complete sense as a "second car" for a household that needs to drop kids at school, get the groceries, etc...) than in cities. Never mind. Even more surprisingly, people do buy some French EVs, even though, well... our glorious national brands have spent the last few years working hard on removing the knobs from the autoradio, and that justified all the "R&D tax rebate" they could get, but sadly none was left for chemists and physicists to increase range, lower prices, etc... Again, go figure. [1] https://www.go-electra.com/fr/newsroom/ventes-voitures-electriques-2025/ https://www.go-electra.com/fr/newsroom/ventes-voitures-elect...
- zorobo 1y ago
  > Surprisingly, BEVs are _more_ visible in the country side (where many smaller models make complete sense as a "second car" for a household that needs to drop kids at school, get the groceries, etc...) than in cities. Never mind. Not that surprising; countryside folks own houses and can charge at home for cheap, while city dwellers generally can't and have to use overpriced, inconvenient public charging.
orwin 1y ago
The PCF is arguing for development and of a subsidized Kei-like electric car (basically a 10k€ EV), and a retraining of car manufacturing workers before any punitive incentive (ZFE, carbon tax on car fuel). This is hardly anti-electric. I don't know about reporterre though, I've heard of them but I don't think they really have any influence on anyone other than Greenpeace afficionados. Also? The R5 is great, and I bet the backlog is really long.
- maelito 1y ago
  The PCF was strongly against the interdiction of new thermal car sales in 2035. This is the kind of struggle that will kill small electric cars business opportunities. Even the "punitive" vocabulary is political and mostly comes from right-wind politicians. Yes the R5 is great and way cheaper than the mean car price.

orwin 1y ago

I agree with the spirit of your comment, but I disagree on the first sentence. If EV were 1% of all sales, a 26% increase would be very low indeed. A 26% increase when you have 20% of a stable market is basically a company getting from a fifth of the market to a fourth, in a year. That's _absolutely_ a surge. Increase 5% of your market share is crazy high.

m101 1y ago
I guess pedantically it would be 15% to 20% is what happened. I guess what I am also trying to say is that the capacity for production is there for much higher, but it's just not being utilised. See Tesla sales being flat/down, or the bloodbath in Chinese vehicle pricing.
- orwin 1y ago
  Yeah, like I said I agree with the spirit of your comment, I was nitpicking because I thought that part was weakening a point I agreed with

onlyrealcuzzo 1y ago

Rome wasn't built in a day. You have to start somewhere. 26% growth on 20% pace is incredible market share gains in one year for virtually any market or company. There are no ICE manufacturers reading this news and genuinely saying, "oh wow, who cares, this is nothing, only started at 20%, next."

ViewTrick1002 1y ago

Does not take many 26% yearly increases from 20% to make up the entire market. 7 to be exact. Continuing the trend only BEVs would be sold by 2032 which is in line with goals to phase out production of new ICEs.

Sharlin 1y ago

Well, in this economical situation it absolutely isn't in most people's immediate plans to buy a new expensive car. But yes, also, the naive hope of many politicians was that the huge, thorny issue that is traffic emissions would just resolve itself by everybody magically switching to EVs, because actually effective measures to curb emissions are rather unpopular.

storus 1y ago
Much of PM2.5 particles is generated by tires. EVs are much harder on tires, often needing tire replacement after just 1 year. So on one hand, you get rid of PM2.5 from fossil fuels, on the other hand you increase tire PM2.5 five fold.
- Sharlin 1y ago
  Yes. Though carbon emissions are of course the most burning issue, with emissions caused by traffic decreasing very slowly if at all, unlike other major CO2 sources. But indeed EVs only really solve a few of the many external costs of personal vehicles.
- rmu09 1y ago
  You also get rid of brake dust (for the most part). This study https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2020/12/non-exhaust-particulate-emissions-from-road-transport_707739b7/4a4dc6ca-en.pdf https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/report... (page 95) sees nowhere near 5 fold increase of particles from tire wear with EVs, for lightweight EVs you get a significant reduction in overall particle emissions.
- Yizahi 1y ago
  They are not much harder on tires. Most of the EVs (like 90%, excluding USA behemoths) are only 20-30% heavier than a ICE vehicle of the same class. There are plenty heavier cars on the roads for the last century. And where did you get this 1 year per tire metric? I see anecdotal reports that on EV with normal tires they last as long as on typical ICEs. I can't find any comprehensive report for either side for now.

duxup 1y ago

Increasing the % sold by 6% seems like a lot to me.

gilbetron 1y ago

If you invested in something that gave you 26% returns, you'd be ecstatic. 26% increase is fantastic.