5 ms·

The leadership of countries under sanctions rarely change their behavior due to sanctions. However the effect on the population of the countries is that they tu

by ivell 1y ago

The leadership of countries under sanctions rarely change their behavior due to sanctions. However the effect on the population of the countries is that they turn against the countries applying the sanctions. It becomes easier for the leaders to sell the sanctions to their populace as the enemy action. If the West is expecting any revolution due to sanctions, I have not seen it. However, sanctions do have a symbolic value. And I also can't think of anything else short of military action to express displeasure.

Seattle3503 1y ago
Sanctions diminish a counties capacity to wage war.
- lazide 1y ago
  Cite? Russia and Iran seem to not be giving too much of a shit. NK became a nuclear power under sanctions.
  - kelnos 1y ago
    Would Russia perhaps have already conquered Ukraine without sanctions? Would Iran have destroyed Israel by now without sanctions? Would NK have become a nuclear power much earlier, and have a huge stockpile of nuclear weapons today, were it not for sanctions? I don't know the answers to those questions, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was "yes".
    - lazide 1y ago
      Russia lost (in a real sense), when their blitzkrieg of Kiev failed. From that point on, it’s just how much they turn the crank on the meat grinder that is trench warfare. It’s the nature of the bet that is inherent in Blitzkrieg. Ukraine/Russia is about who is going to lose more after that, not who can win. No one can win anymore. Sanctions or lack thereof definitely impacts quality of life, but Putin put everything on a war economy footing pretty quickly anyway, and in that environment (especially in Russia), it’s suffering all the way down. And Russia excels at Suffering. Russia has oil too, and plenty of minerals, so if anything I expect by now they’re just getting stronger (economically), barring Ukraine wrecking their shit from time to time with a well placed drone strike. Iran/Israel is an interesting question, but near as I can tell, Iran doesn’t really want to destroy Israel. They just want to make them as miserable as possible, and show they can ‘do harm’ to them when they need to prop up domestic support among the hardliners. Israel provides a good scapegoat for the Iranian leadership. With Israel gone, who is the Ayatollah going to use as the big bad? The Great Satan (USA) isn’t as tractable a target when they don’t have a designated ‘local’ they can go after, and if Iran actually meaningfully hurt the US (nuked the White House?), Iran is glass regardless of how otherwise strong they are. NK got sanctions because they love playing the crazy-dude-with-a-gun-that-just-wants-a-handout, which is also why they eventually got nukes. They might have gotten nukes a little faster without sanctions, but sanctions definitely gave the hardliners huge leverage in the country. Hard to be friendly with the west (as a civilian!) when the west is literally openly starving the country, even if the leadership of your country is egging them on eh? Near as I can tell, the USSR fell because of jeans and rock and roll. So yes, I think the ‘good guy’ sanctions BS is ultimately self defeating. It can work if someone is either a) in a tenuous economic position, and b) the ‘sanctioningish’ behavior is not existential. But any good authoritarian would rather throw their entire population under the bus ‘for the greater good’ than give in on something important for them… And countries know how to deal with being at war (generally), even if it’s a weird only-semi-economic one.
      - jimbohn 1y ago
        The USSR fell because its economic model didn't work and was a society steered by corrupt principles. Jeans and rock and roll "envy" was just a symptom. After having seen the effect of communism/russianism on post-soviet countries I'd rather take a nuclear bomb, it's better in the long term. Sanctions work but it depends what you are min-maxing because obviously some sanctions may hurt your own country/block.
      - 542354234235 1y ago
        Russia has had to sell oil at a steep discount, which has cut into their revenue significantly. Hundreds of billions of dollars have been frozen/seized that can't be used to fund the war effort. Modern war is not just "beans and bullets”, and Russia pays upwards of 10 times the price for key components it needs for missiles, aviation, UAVs, tanks, artillery, air defense, etc. as well as quality manufacturing equipment needed. Russian industry is operating at only 81% capacity, largely due to labor shortages, which make sense considering that about 1% of its labor force join the military every other month. Russia is losing tank barrels, artillery barrels, and infantry fighting vehicles more than 10 times faster than it can manufacture new ones. It will likely never be able to obtain a third rotary forge, required for barrel manufacture, to expand its capacity. It has almost entirely cannibalized its old, defunct Soviet era stock. They are being kept afloat by China, NK, and Iran, but with a much-reduced capacity, and often much lower quality. For example, Russia relies on China for 70-80% of its microchips, but China is dumping defective microchips on them with a 40% failure rate. Sanctions have absolutely had significant, direct, measurable impacts on Russia’s ability to wage war and sustain war. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/11/21/half-of-russias-airbus-a320neo-fleet-grounded-amid-engine-problems-sanctions-kommersant-a87087 https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/11/21/half-of-russias-ai... https://jamestown.org/program/russia-exhausts-soviet-era-arms-storage-bases/ https://jamestown.org/program/russia-exhausts-soviet-era-arm... https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-where-are-russias-300-billion-reserves-frozen-west-2023-12-28/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-where-are-russias-... https://archive.ph/c17pk https://archive.ph/c17pk https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/is-2025-the-year-that-russias-economy-finally-freezes-up-under-sanctions/ https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/is-202... https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-sanctions-have-reshaped-russias-future https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-sanctions-have-reshaped-ru... https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/impact-sanctions-and-alliances-russian-military-capabilities https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/comme... https://osintforukraine.com/publications/microchips https://osintforukraine.com/publications/microchips https://www.theregister.com/2022/10/18/russia_china_semiconductro_failure_rates/ https://www.theregister.com/2022/10/18/russia_china_semicond...
    - johnisgood 1y ago
      > Iran is not the only example in which sanctions have resulted in unintended consequences. Since 1970, unilateral sanctions imposed by the U.S. have achieved foreign policy goals in just about 13% of cases, according to one study. A recent Congressional Research report evaluating U.S. sanctions in Venezuela found that sanctions “exacerbated an ongoing economic and humanitarian crisis caused by government mismanagement and corruption that has promoted 7.7 million Venezuelans to flee.” U.S. sanctions also exacerbated humanitarian crises in North Korea, reported UNICEF, putting 60,000 vulnerable children at risk of starvation due to limited humanitarian aid. https://washingtondc.jhu.edu/news/do-sanctions-actually-work-experts-evaluate-the-efficacy-of-this-widely-used-foreign-policy-tool/ https://washingtondc.jhu.edu/news/do-sanctions-actually-work...
  - victorbjorklund 1y ago
    Russia have gas shortages right now because their plants keep getting blown up and the needed spare parts are often western.
    - deleted 1y ago
      [deleted]
  - athrowaway3z 1y ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Ac...
  - mynegation 1y ago
    Main reason being that there are large and powerful countries that do not give a damn about sanctions.
    - 1234letshaveatw 1y ago
      Name one
      - lazide 1y ago
        China? Russia?
- sjapkee 1y ago
  No. Countries just will take money from their people. It diminishes people capacity to survive.
  - 542354234235 1y ago
    Both are true. Less access to materials, components, IP, and skilled labor all diminish a country's war fighting ability. There aren't unlimited funds you can take from citizens, and money you do take has effects on your labor force and talent pool.
  - myrmidon 1y ago
    Can't wage war effectively if you're starving.
dash2 1y ago
On the whole, I’m inclined to agree, but didn’t South Africa eventually end apartheid because of sanctions?
- pessimizer 1y ago
  Sanctions from individuals. The US did the opposite, and supported South Africa no matter what. Just like Israel - In both ways. Israel supported South Africa, and the US supported Israel. The dramatic sanctions against US citizens for refusing to buy from Israel and endorsing that people not buy from Israel are meant to prevent such a horrible thing as the fall of Apartheid from ever happening again.
  - dash2 1y ago
    This comment is mistaken. Many countries, including Japan from 1964, and eventually the US and UK, sanctioned SA officially. I doubt whether any boycott from individual US citizens had a serious economic effect compared to this. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_sanctions_during_apartheid https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_sanctions_during...
FrozenSynapse 1y ago
You think sanctions on Russia are not working?
- Xelbair 1y ago
  Honestly, their effect is diminished. After speaking with Russians living in there, day to day life hasn't been affected that much, after initial shock. Trying to use sanctions against another major power isn't guaranteed to work as they can take the hit and pivot to internal industry(which happened), or trading with other major powers that do not sanction them(China). Or some countries get around sanctions - like buying Russian gas/petroleum products through India - in a way this bypasses sanctions making them worthless. Is it better than doing nothing? yes, of course. But Russia unfortunately is a major power - just due to sheer access to natural resources - and you can't just bully it into submission with weak sanctions that some EU countries ignore(petroleum case).
  - kelnos 1y ago
    > After speaking with Russians living in there, day to day life hasn't been affected that much, after initial shock. That sounds like a positive, though: if Russia's advance into Ukraine has been slowed by sanctions, but everyday Russians aren't affected too much, I'd consider that a huge win. We shouldn't be punishing regular people for the actions of a their dictatorship government that they can't control.
    - johnisgood 1y ago
      Problem is that ever since the sanctions from EU, our prices of EVERYTHING has increased by 3-6x. We are in an economic crisis, thanks to EU's sanctions.
  - ajuc 1y ago
    Russia has had billions in oil money banked. It's mostly gone now. It's working all right. These things take decades. Look at North Korea (first few years they grew faster than South Korea, and they had the more wealthy parts). Now their GDP per capita is around 600-1700 USD vs 33 000 USD in South Korea.
lelanthran 1y ago
> The leadership of countries under sanctions rarely change their behavior due to sanctions. However the effect on the population of the countries is that they turn against the countries applying the sanctions. It becomes easier for the leaders to sell the sanctions to their populace as the enemy action. Counterpoint: South Africa. > If the West is expecting any revolution due to sanctions, I have not seen it. You have now.
- zdragnar 1y ago
  Isn't South Africa the exception? There have been sanctions on many more countries who have not changed at all, or even doubled down on bad behavior as a result. I can certainly understand, as a matter of foreign policy, not wanting our companies to be propping up or supplying such regimes, but I don't really get how anyone can think that sanctions are effective at promoting change.

by ivell 1y ago

Seattle3503 1y ago

Sanctions diminish a counties capacity to wage war.

lazide 1y ago
Cite? Russia and Iran seem to not be giving too much of a shit. NK became a nuclear power under sanctions.
- kelnos 1y ago
  Would Russia perhaps have already conquered Ukraine without sanctions? Would Iran have destroyed Israel by now without sanctions? Would NK have become a nuclear power much earlier, and have a huge stockpile of nuclear weapons today, were it not for sanctions? I don't know the answers to those questions, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was "yes".
  - lazide 1y ago
    Russia lost (in a real sense), when their blitzkrieg of Kiev failed. From that point on, it’s just how much they turn the crank on the meat grinder that is trench warfare. It’s the nature of the bet that is inherent in Blitzkrieg. Ukraine/Russia is about who is going to lose more after that, not who can win. No one can win anymore. Sanctions or lack thereof definitely impacts quality of life, but Putin put everything on a war economy footing pretty quickly anyway, and in that environment (especially in Russia), it’s suffering all the way down. And Russia excels at Suffering. Russia has oil too, and plenty of minerals, so if anything I expect by now they’re just getting stronger (economically), barring Ukraine wrecking their shit from time to time with a well placed drone strike. Iran/Israel is an interesting question, but near as I can tell, Iran doesn’t really want to destroy Israel. They just want to make them as miserable as possible, and show they can ‘do harm’ to them when they need to prop up domestic support among the hardliners. Israel provides a good scapegoat for the Iranian leadership. With Israel gone, who is the Ayatollah going to use as the big bad? The Great Satan (USA) isn’t as tractable a target when they don’t have a designated ‘local’ they can go after, and if Iran actually meaningfully hurt the US (nuked the White House?), Iran is glass regardless of how otherwise strong they are. NK got sanctions because they love playing the crazy-dude-with-a-gun-that-just-wants-a-handout, which is also why they eventually got nukes. They might have gotten nukes a little faster without sanctions, but sanctions definitely gave the hardliners huge leverage in the country. Hard to be friendly with the west (as a civilian!) when the west is literally openly starving the country, even if the leadership of your country is egging them on eh? Near as I can tell, the USSR fell because of jeans and rock and roll. So yes, I think the ‘good guy’ sanctions BS is ultimately self defeating. It can work if someone is either a) in a tenuous economic position, and b) the ‘sanctioningish’ behavior is not existential. But any good authoritarian would rather throw their entire population under the bus ‘for the greater good’ than give in on something important for them… And countries know how to deal with being at war (generally), even if it’s a weird only-semi-economic one.
    - jimbohn 1y ago
      The USSR fell because its economic model didn't work and was a society steered by corrupt principles. Jeans and rock and roll "envy" was just a symptom. After having seen the effect of communism/russianism on post-soviet countries I'd rather take a nuclear bomb, it's better in the long term. Sanctions work but it depends what you are min-maxing because obviously some sanctions may hurt your own country/block.
    - 542354234235 1y ago
      Russia has had to sell oil at a steep discount, which has cut into their revenue significantly. Hundreds of billions of dollars have been frozen/seized that can't be used to fund the war effort. Modern war is not just "beans and bullets”, and Russia pays upwards of 10 times the price for key components it needs for missiles, aviation, UAVs, tanks, artillery, air defense, etc. as well as quality manufacturing equipment needed. Russian industry is operating at only 81% capacity, largely due to labor shortages, which make sense considering that about 1% of its labor force join the military every other month. Russia is losing tank barrels, artillery barrels, and infantry fighting vehicles more than 10 times faster than it can manufacture new ones. It will likely never be able to obtain a third rotary forge, required for barrel manufacture, to expand its capacity. It has almost entirely cannibalized its old, defunct Soviet era stock. They are being kept afloat by China, NK, and Iran, but with a much-reduced capacity, and often much lower quality. For example, Russia relies on China for 70-80% of its microchips, but China is dumping defective microchips on them with a 40% failure rate. Sanctions have absolutely had significant, direct, measurable impacts on Russia’s ability to wage war and sustain war. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/11/21/half-of-russias-airbus-a320neo-fleet-grounded-amid-engine-problems-sanctions-kommersant-a87087 https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/11/21/half-of-russias-ai... https://jamestown.org/program/russia-exhausts-soviet-era-arms-storage-bases/ https://jamestown.org/program/russia-exhausts-soviet-era-arm... https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-where-are-russias-300-billion-reserves-frozen-west-2023-12-28/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-where-are-russias-... https://archive.ph/c17pk https://archive.ph/c17pk https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/is-2025-the-year-that-russias-economy-finally-freezes-up-under-sanctions/ https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/is-202... https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-sanctions-have-reshaped-russias-future https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-sanctions-have-reshaped-ru... https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/impact-sanctions-and-alliances-russian-military-capabilities https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/comme... https://osintforukraine.com/publications/microchips https://osintforukraine.com/publications/microchips https://www.theregister.com/2022/10/18/russia_china_semiconductro_failure_rates/ https://www.theregister.com/2022/10/18/russia_china_semicond...
  - johnisgood 1y ago
    > Iran is not the only example in which sanctions have resulted in unintended consequences. Since 1970, unilateral sanctions imposed by the U.S. have achieved foreign policy goals in just about 13% of cases, according to one study. A recent Congressional Research report evaluating U.S. sanctions in Venezuela found that sanctions “exacerbated an ongoing economic and humanitarian crisis caused by government mismanagement and corruption that has promoted 7.7 million Venezuelans to flee.” U.S. sanctions also exacerbated humanitarian crises in North Korea, reported UNICEF, putting 60,000 vulnerable children at risk of starvation due to limited humanitarian aid. https://washingtondc.jhu.edu/news/do-sanctions-actually-work-experts-evaluate-the-efficacy-of-this-widely-used-foreign-policy-tool/ https://washingtondc.jhu.edu/news/do-sanctions-actually-work...
- victorbjorklund 1y ago
  Russia have gas shortages right now because their plants keep getting blown up and the needed spare parts are often western.
  - deleted 1y ago
    [deleted]
- athrowaway3z 1y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Ac...
- mynegation 1y ago
  Main reason being that there are large and powerful countries that do not give a damn about sanctions.
  - 1234letshaveatw 1y ago
    Name one
    - lazide 1y ago
      China? Russia?
sjapkee 1y ago
No. Countries just will take money from their people. It diminishes people capacity to survive.
- 542354234235 1y ago
  Both are true. Less access to materials, components, IP, and skilled labor all diminish a country's war fighting ability. There aren't unlimited funds you can take from citizens, and money you do take has effects on your labor force and talent pool.
- myrmidon 1y ago
  Can't wage war effectively if you're starving.

dash2 1y ago

On the whole, I’m inclined to agree, but didn’t South Africa eventually end apartheid because of sanctions?

pessimizer 1y ago
Sanctions from individuals. The US did the opposite, and supported South Africa no matter what. Just like Israel - In both ways. Israel supported South Africa, and the US supported Israel. The dramatic sanctions against US citizens for refusing to buy from Israel and endorsing that people not buy from Israel are meant to prevent such a horrible thing as the fall of Apartheid from ever happening again.
- dash2 1y ago
  This comment is mistaken. Many countries, including Japan from 1964, and eventually the US and UK, sanctioned SA officially. I doubt whether any boycott from individual US citizens had a serious economic effect compared to this. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_sanctions_during_apartheid https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_sanctions_during...

FrozenSynapse 1y ago

You think sanctions on Russia are not working?

Xelbair 1y ago
Honestly, their effect is diminished. After speaking with Russians living in there, day to day life hasn't been affected that much, after initial shock. Trying to use sanctions against another major power isn't guaranteed to work as they can take the hit and pivot to internal industry(which happened), or trading with other major powers that do not sanction them(China). Or some countries get around sanctions - like buying Russian gas/petroleum products through India - in a way this bypasses sanctions making them worthless. Is it better than doing nothing? yes, of course. But Russia unfortunately is a major power - just due to sheer access to natural resources - and you can't just bully it into submission with weak sanctions that some EU countries ignore(petroleum case).
- kelnos 1y ago
  > After speaking with Russians living in there, day to day life hasn't been affected that much, after initial shock. That sounds like a positive, though: if Russia's advance into Ukraine has been slowed by sanctions, but everyday Russians aren't affected too much, I'd consider that a huge win. We shouldn't be punishing regular people for the actions of a their dictatorship government that they can't control.
  - johnisgood 1y ago
    Problem is that ever since the sanctions from EU, our prices of EVERYTHING has increased by 3-6x. We are in an economic crisis, thanks to EU's sanctions.
- ajuc 1y ago
  Russia has had billions in oil money banked. It's mostly gone now. It's working all right. These things take decades. Look at North Korea (first few years they grew faster than South Korea, and they had the more wealthy parts). Now their GDP per capita is around 600-1700 USD vs 33 000 USD in South Korea.

lelanthran 1y ago

> The leadership of countries under sanctions rarely change their behavior due to sanctions. However the effect on the population of the countries is that they turn against the countries applying the sanctions. It becomes easier for the leaders to sell the sanctions to their populace as the enemy action. Counterpoint: South Africa. > If the West is expecting any revolution due to sanctions, I have not seen it. You have now.

zdragnar 1y ago
Isn't South Africa the exception? There have been sanctions on many more countries who have not changed at all, or even doubled down on bad behavior as a result. I can certainly understand, as a matter of foreign policy, not wanting our companies to be propping up or supplying such regimes, but I don't really get how anyone can think that sanctions are effective at promoting change.