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This is written by Kevin Bryan from University of Toronto. He has good tweets on the economics of AI, too (https://x.com/Afinetheorem https://x.com/Afinetheorem
by cjbarber 1y ago
This is written by Kevin Bryan from University of Toronto. He has good tweets on the economics of AI, too (https://x.com/Afinetheorem https://x.com/Afinetheorem).
My recap of the PDF is something like:
1. There are good books about the near-term economics as AI.
2. There aren't many good books about "what if the AI researchers are right" (e.g. rapid scientific acceleration) and the economic and political impacts of those cases.
3. The Second Machine Age: Digital progress boosts the bounty and widens the spread, more relative inequality. Wrong on speed (e.g. self driving tech vs regulatory change).
4. Prediction Machines: AI = cheaper prediction. Which raises the value of human judgement, because that's a complement.
5. Power and Prediction: Value comes when the whole system is improved not just from smaller fixes. Electrification's benefits arrived when factories reorganized, not just when they added electricity to existing layouts. Diffusion is slow because things need to be rebuilt.
6. The Data Economy: Data is a nonrivalrous asset. As models get stronger and cheaper, unique private data grows in relative value.
7. The Skill Code: Apprenticeship pathways may disappear. E.g. survival robots prevent juniors getting practice reps.
8. Co-Intelligence: Diffusion is slowed by the jagged frontier (AI is spiky). Superhuman at one thing, subhuman at another.
9. Situational Awareness: By ~2027, $1T/yr AI capex spend, big power demand, and hundreds of millions of AI researchers getting a decade of algo progress in less than a year. (Author doesn't say he agrees, but says economists should analyze what happens if it does)
10. Questions: What if the AGI-pilled AI researchers are right, what will the economic and policy implications be?
- tuatoru 1y agoThis all sounds like it has been covered in detail by the "AI as a Normal Technology"[1][2] guys (formerly AI Snake Oil - they decided they preferred to engage rather than just be snarky). Invention vs innovation vs diffusion - this is all well-known stuff. It's a completely different episteme than the one IABIED guys have ("If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies"). I don't think there can be any meaningful dialogue between the two camps. 1. Substack: https://www.normaltech.ai/ https://www.normaltech.ai/ book: https://www.normaltech.ai/p/starting-reading-the-ai-snake-oil https://www.normaltech.ai/p/starting-reading-the-ai-snake-oi... 2. "Normal technology" like fire, metals, agriculture, writing, and electricity are normal technologies.
- dwohnitmok 1y agoIt feels kind of crazy to go from "AI is 'only' something like snake oil" to "AI is 'only' something like fire, metallurgy, agriculture, writing, or electricity" without some kind of mea culpa of what was wrong about their previous view. That's a huge leap to more or less imply "well AI is just going to be comparable to invention of fire. No biggie. Completely compatible with AI as snake oil."
- uoaei 1y agoI think the point is more to posit that our civilization will come to normalize AI as a ubiquitous tool extremely quickly like the other ones mentioned, and to analyze it from that perspective. The breathless extremist takes on both sides are a bit tiresome.
- tuatoru 1y agoThe AI hype was 1000% GDP growth per annum. That was crazy. The "snake oil" label was in reaction to that. Anyway, you are shooting the messenger by downvoting me. Thanks for showing us all how intelligent you are.
- dwohnitmok 1y agoEh. Downvote wasn't me. But I'd be curious if you could find a quote from anyone for 1000% GDP growth per annum.
- catigula 1y agoIf AI researchers are wrong they're gonna have a lot of explaining to do.
- blibble 1y agothey'll just move onto the next grift quantum? quantum AI? quantum AI on the blockchain?
- rhetocj23 1y agoTBH its far more likely they are wrong than right. Investors are incredibly overzealous to not miss out on what happened with certain stocks of the personal computing, web 2.0 and smartphone diffusion.