4 ms·

What happens now if one of these companies implodes? does it pull everything with it?

by lawlessone 1y ago

nradov 1y ago
too big to fail
- mmastrac 1y ago
  "too big to fail" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evergrande_Group https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evergrande_Group
YeahThisIsMe 1y ago
Why would anything that isn't Intel implode? And what's "everything"?
- smegger001 1y ago
  a plateauing in AI development leading to another AI Winter causing dotcom bubble 2 electric boogaloo.
  - yvdriess 1y ago
    If anything that would be a boost to Intel. One of their problems is GPU capex sucking the air out of the room.
    - smegger001 1y ago
      well the question i answered was "Why would anything that isn't Intel implode" and an AI winter and another dotcom boom would do that to everyone not named Intel.
FirmwareBurner 1y ago
Well, the AI bubble will eventually pop since none of the major AI chatbots are remotely profitable, even on OpenAI's eyewatering $200/month pay plan which very few have been willing to pay, and even on that OpenAI is still loosing money on it. And when it pops, so will Nvidia's stock, it's only a matter of time. The AI hype train was built on the premise that AI will progress linearly and eventually end up replacing a lot of well paid white collar work, but it failed to deliver on that promise by now, and progress has flatlined or sometimes even gone backwards (see GPT-5 vs 4o). FAANG companies can only absorb these losses for so long before shareholders pull out.
- bdamm 1y ago
  The white collar worker doesn't need to be replaced for the bots to be profitable. They just need to become dependent on the bots to increase their productivity to the point where they feel they cannot do their job without the chatbot's help. Then the white collar worker will be happy to fork over cash. We may already be there. Also never forget that in technology moreso than any other industry showing a loss while actually secretly making a profit is a high art form. There is a lot of land grabbing happening right now, but even so it would be a bit silly to take the profit/loss public figures at face value.
  - FirmwareBurner 1y ago
    >We may already be there. Numbers prove we aren't. Sales figures show very few customers are willing to pay $200 per month for the top AI chatbots, and even at $200/month, OpenAI is still taking a loss on that plan so they're still loosing money even with top dollar customers. I think you're unaware just how unprofitable the big AI products are. This can only go on for so long. We're not in the ZIRP era anymore where SV VC funded unicorns can be unprofitable indefinitely and endlessly burn cash on the idea that when they'll eventually beat all competitors in the race to the bottom and become monopolies they can finally turn a profit by squeezing users with higher real-world price. That ship has sailed.
    - blonder 1y ago

What happens now if one of these companies implodes? does it pull everything with it?

nradov 1y ago

too big to fail

mmastrac 1y ago
"too big to fail" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evergrande_Group https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evergrande_Group

YeahThisIsMe 1y ago

Why would anything that isn't Intel implode? And what's "everything"?

smegger001 1y ago
a plateauing in AI development leading to another AI Winter causing dotcom bubble 2 electric boogaloo.
- yvdriess 1y ago
  If anything that would be a boost to Intel. One of their problems is GPU capex sucking the air out of the room.
  - smegger001 1y ago
    well the question i answered was "Why would anything that isn't Intel implode" and an AI winter and another dotcom boom would do that to everyone not named Intel.

FirmwareBurner 1y ago

Well, the AI bubble will eventually pop since none of the major AI chatbots are remotely profitable, even on OpenAI's eyewatering $200/month pay plan which very few have been willing to pay, and even on that OpenAI is still loosing money on it. And when it pops, so will Nvidia's stock, it's only a matter of time. The AI hype train was built on the premise that AI will progress linearly and eventually end up replacing a lot of well paid white collar work, but it failed to deliver on that promise by now, and progress has flatlined or sometimes even gone backwards (see GPT-5 vs 4o). FAANG companies can only absorb these losses for so long before shareholders pull out.

bdamm 1y ago
The white collar worker doesn't need to be replaced for the bots to be profitable. They just need to become dependent on the bots to increase their productivity to the point where they feel they cannot do their job without the chatbot's help. Then the white collar worker will be happy to fork over cash. We may already be there. Also never forget that in technology moreso than any other industry showing a loss while actually secretly making a profit is a high art form. There is a lot of land grabbing happening right now, but even so it would be a bit silly to take the profit/loss public figures at face value.
- FirmwareBurner 1y ago
  >We may already be there. Numbers prove we aren't. Sales figures show very few customers are willing to pay $200 per month for the top AI chatbots, and even at $200/month, OpenAI is still taking a loss on that plan so they're still loosing money even with top dollar customers. I think you're unaware just how unprofitable the big AI products are. This can only go on for so long. We're not in the ZIRP era anymore where SV VC funded unicorns can be unprofitable indefinitely and endlessly burn cash on the idea that when they'll eventually beat all competitors in the race to the bottom and become monopolies they can finally turn a profit by squeezing users with higher real-world price. That ship has sailed.
  - blonder 1y ago