3 ms·

Can anyone with insight into Chinese politics comment on these observations? They seem salient, but China to me is just such a mystery that I never really know

Can anyone with insight into Chinese politics comment on these observations? They seem salient, but China to me is just such a mystery that I never really know what to believe when I read press coverage about it.

meric 14y ago
My Chinese friends tell me that China's only hope of reform is through Hong Kong's success as a democracy, and I (from Hong Kong) reply that Hong Kong's democracy is doomed by Beijing's influence through majority control of the legislature, that China reforming internally politically is Hong Kong's only hope; The party with the most funding and the most votes, "Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress", represents Beijing in Hong Kong. No, there is no hope at all. China growing on the wrong set of axis will first lead to economical, and then eventually, political collapse. The only question is when. It probably won't be this year, or even next year.
shimon_e 14y ago
Most people are "meh" only those involved somehow care. These are really small issues. If you were no one and got into a car crash no one would care. If you are the son of someone important to the federal government no one would be allowed read about it. If you are the son of someone important to local government then it will be all over the media as the censorship is the duty of the federal government.
seanmcdirmid 14y ago
China only seems mysterious because it lacks an independent press. Everyone knows the official line parroted by Xinhua and CCTV is often BS, but there is really nothing to fill the gap. So everyone is reading tea leafs because there are important questions that need answers. What happened to Xi Jinping and who will replace him (if he really had a stroke)? What official is going to get beat down b/c his son was hot rodding recklessly in a Ferrari? Will Beijing introduce a property tax that will severely reorganize the property market? Are they going to keep the pension cap at 12K RMB income or will they open it up to be more progressive, virtually forcing all of us laowai to leave (since no one believes we will be able to collect)? Its hard to understand what an unfree press gives you until you've experienced it. The Hu/Wen government has been very disappointing compared to their predecessors. I mean, 10 years with basically no political or economic reform! Perhaps this is because of the battling between reformists and traditionalists, or perhaps all those officials have just been busy cashing in for their kids (have to pay for those Ferraris somehow). And we have no idea what Xi will do; more of the same? Change for the good? Change for the bad? Its like if we elected a president in the states who had no past.

meric 14y ago

My Chinese friends tell me that China's only hope of reform is through Hong Kong's success as a democracy, and I (from Hong Kong) reply that Hong Kong's democracy is doomed by Beijing's influence through majority control of the legislature, that China reforming internally politically is Hong Kong's only hope; The party with the most funding and the most votes, "Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress", represents Beijing in Hong Kong. No, there is no hope at all. China growing on the wrong set of axis will first lead to economical, and then eventually, political collapse. The only question is when. It probably won't be this year, or even next year.

shimon_e 14y ago

Most people are "meh" only those involved somehow care. These are really small issues. If you were no one and got into a car crash no one would care. If you are the son of someone important to the federal government no one would be allowed read about it. If you are the son of someone important to local government then it will be all over the media as the censorship is the duty of the federal government.

seanmcdirmid 14y ago

China only seems mysterious because it lacks an independent press. Everyone knows the official line parroted by Xinhua and CCTV is often BS, but there is really nothing to fill the gap. So everyone is reading tea leafs because there are important questions that need answers. What happened to Xi Jinping and who will replace him (if he really had a stroke)? What official is going to get beat down b/c his son was hot rodding recklessly in a Ferrari? Will Beijing introduce a property tax that will severely reorganize the property market? Are they going to keep the pension cap at 12K RMB income or will they open it up to be more progressive, virtually forcing all of us laowai to leave (since no one believes we will be able to collect)? Its hard to understand what an unfree press gives you until you've experienced it. The Hu/Wen government has been very disappointing compared to their predecessors. I mean, 10 years with basically no political or economic reform! Perhaps this is because of the battling between reformists and traditionalists, or perhaps all those officials have just been busy cashing in for their kids (have to pay for those Ferraris somehow). And we have no idea what Xi will do; more of the same? Change for the good? Change for the bad? Its like if we elected a president in the states who had no past.