5 ms·

A new theory of China's rise: rule by engineers

28 points by guiambros 1y ago

xyzzy123 1y ago
Previously: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44925913 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44925913 (China Is Run by Engineers, and the US by Too Many Lawyers (bloomberg.com))
mitchbob 1y ago
https://archive.ph/n721n https://archive.ph/n721n
sigmoid10 1y ago
Why do people bother with new theories in this space? Just to throw shade at other countries' political systems? It is perfectly clear what caused China's rise and why it is a historic and geopolitical exception that will not translate to any other country today. And it's certainly not their authoritarian political system that deserves praise, even though right-wingers in the west love foreign autocrats these days and want to bring that shit here.
- anovikov 1y ago
  So what is your theory of it? Also, how is this an exception? Didn't many the other Southeast Asian countries do the same, with the result being less remarkable just because of their smaller size?
  - hshdhdhj4444 1y ago
    Yeah it’s not clear what China achieved was qualitatively significantly superior than Japan or Korea’s achievements. I think China’s biggest source of fortune was that their rise coincided with the unraveling of American democracy, which arguably began with the 2020 election, but was well and truly set in motion when American leaders exploited 9/11 and lied to the public to start a war in Iraq.
    - BrawnyBadger53 1y ago
      China's rise started well before 2020
  - sigmoid10 1y ago
    This is not "my theory." This is pretty standard historian stuff. It's a combination of cold war shenanigans from the US, globalisation and favourable demographics. You can easily find this by looking at any source that is not pushing a certain political agenda. Here's a pretty good summary that is not particularly tainted: https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2025/06/27/chinas-rise-is-an-exception/ https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2025/06/27/chinas-rise-is-an-exce...
    - fspeech 1y ago
      Sorry I have to say that the cited writeup is disappointingly shallow. For example it doesn't explain why other countries with equal or better access to the Western markets didn't all industrialize, so globalization may be necessary but is clearly not sufficient. Also its narrative on Chinese agriculture ignores the fact that Chinese agriculture also developed rapidly both in production and in value of output. It became the largest importer of food because the consumption of protein skyrocketed outpacing almost every other country.
      - sigmoid10 1y ago
        Perhaps you missed the part where the US saw China as an opportunity to curb Russian influence in Asia? The Sino-Soviet split [1] was definitely a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for the west to slither in. Other countries like India wanted to keep a more neutral stance while China not just denounced the new Russian interpretation of Marxism/Leninism, they embraced the prospect of capitalism once it was presented to them. They were opening up the country at the exact right moment in the cold war and benefited enormously from the post-WWII boom and ensuing rise of globalisation. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_split https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_split
meekaaku 1y ago
Do these people really have no clue? China is just undergoing its own Industrial Revolution which the western world already participated in. They Chinese Industrial Revolution was sparked in the rural village of Xiaogang. The local farmers were fed up with the communist control, lack of freedom, enforced collectivism, stringent quotas and all. A group of 18 farmers (illegaly) divided their communal farm and went into competition. They outperformed the allocated quota by a large margin. Even the communist government could not ignore the results of this capitalistic experiment. Then they slowly allowed this freedom across the country. Engineers were running the country back then in the communist era too. Soon China opened up to foreign investments in their special economic zones, that enabled technology transfer. You see, this is the natural result of private property and freedom. People will trade/exchange/compete resulting in better outcomes for all. This is the same thing that happened in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Europe/America and pretty much all developed countries. CCP has largely adopted capitalism in the economic sector. It still controls other freedoms, mainly speech, press etc. America is drowning in unnecessary regulations/taxes/red tape. America and Europe did move fast when it was young, just like China is doing in its young phase of this industrial revolution. I am no American or Chinese. Just an independent observer from a third world country.
- belter 1y ago
  > America is drowning in unnecessary regulations/taxes/red tape. You must be joking... - Unlike most OECD countries, the U.S. lets employers fire workers without “just cause” or severance. - The U.S. is the only OECD country with no national paid parental leave mandate. - There is no federal privacy law or something like GDPR - No nationwide rules or regulations on Payday lending caps with interest often >450% APR - Fines for U.S. workplace safety penalties are flat and modest - TSCA lets many chemical substances stay on the market, while for example in the EU, the REACH program requires precautionary testing and registration. - U.S. oil & gas flaring rules are a joke
  - yostrovs 1y ago
    Just because some regulations that you would like to exist, but don't, doesn't mean there aren't regulations that exist, but shouldn't. I'm most US states you need a license to cut hair. I'm summer states you need a license to braid hair. These licenses are actually expensive and hard to obtain, keeping a lot of talented people from actually working in the field. I bet in China you can just cut someone's hair.
powerapple 1y ago
we like to simplify things for the ease of understanding. I wish everything can be attributed to one factor, the world would be so simple and easy to understand. That said, I do have my own understanding on what has contributed to China's rise, and I agree, the engineer aspect has a big play in it: I read the Lean Startup book, while I was reading it, I realize that a lot happened in the country share similarity to startups. Chinese government is very flexible, they do A/B testing with economic policies, pivoting all the time, the measurement, it is so interesting to see how concepts are very similar in both governing and running a startup.

28 points by guiambros 1y ago

Previously: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44925913 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44925913 (China Is Run by Engineers, and the US by Too Many Lawyers (bloomberg.com))

mitchbob 1y ago

https://archive.ph/n721n https://archive.ph/n721n

sigmoid10 1y ago

Why do people bother with new theories in this space? Just to throw shade at other countries' political systems? It is perfectly clear what caused China's rise and why it is a historic and geopolitical exception that will not translate to any other country today. And it's certainly not their authoritarian political system that deserves praise, even though right-wingers in the west love foreign autocrats these days and want to bring that shit here.

anovikov 1y ago
So what is your theory of it? Also, how is this an exception? Didn't many the other Southeast Asian countries do the same, with the result being less remarkable just because of their smaller size?
- hshdhdhj4444 1y ago
  Yeah it’s not clear what China achieved was qualitatively significantly superior than Japan or Korea’s achievements. I think China’s biggest source of fortune was that their rise coincided with the unraveling of American democracy, which arguably began with the 2020 election, but was well and truly set in motion when American leaders exploited 9/11 and lied to the public to start a war in Iraq.
  - BrawnyBadger53 1y ago
    China's rise started well before 2020
- sigmoid10 1y ago
  This is not "my theory." This is pretty standard historian stuff. It's a combination of cold war shenanigans from the US, globalisation and favourable demographics. You can easily find this by looking at any source that is not pushing a certain political agenda. Here's a pretty good summary that is not particularly tainted: https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2025/06/27/chinas-rise-is-an-exception/ https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2025/06/27/chinas-rise-is-an-exce...
  - fspeech 1y ago
    Sorry I have to say that the cited writeup is disappointingly shallow. For example it doesn't explain why other countries with equal or better access to the Western markets didn't all industrialize, so globalization may be necessary but is clearly not sufficient. Also its narrative on Chinese agriculture ignores the fact that Chinese agriculture also developed rapidly both in production and in value of output. It became the largest importer of food because the consumption of protein skyrocketed outpacing almost every other country.
    - sigmoid10 1y ago
      Perhaps you missed the part where the US saw China as an opportunity to curb Russian influence in Asia? The Sino-Soviet split [1] was definitely a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for the west to slither in. Other countries like India wanted to keep a more neutral stance while China not just denounced the new Russian interpretation of Marxism/Leninism, they embraced the prospect of capitalism once it was presented to them. They were opening up the country at the exact right moment in the cold war and benefited enormously from the post-WWII boom and ensuing rise of globalisation. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_split https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_split

meekaaku 1y ago

Do these people really have no clue? China is just undergoing its own Industrial Revolution which the western world already participated in. They Chinese Industrial Revolution was sparked in the rural village of Xiaogang. The local farmers were fed up with the communist control, lack of freedom, enforced collectivism, stringent quotas and all. A group of 18 farmers (illegaly) divided their communal farm and went into competition. They outperformed the allocated quota by a large margin. Even the communist government could not ignore the results of this capitalistic experiment. Then they slowly allowed this freedom across the country. Engineers were running the country back then in the communist era too. Soon China opened up to foreign investments in their special economic zones, that enabled technology transfer. You see, this is the natural result of private property and freedom. People will trade/exchange/compete resulting in better outcomes for all. This is the same thing that happened in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Europe/America and pretty much all developed countries. CCP has largely adopted capitalism in the economic sector. It still controls other freedoms, mainly speech, press etc. America is drowning in unnecessary regulations/taxes/red tape. America and Europe did move fast when it was young, just like China is doing in its young phase of this industrial revolution. I am no American or Chinese. Just an independent observer from a third world country.

belter 1y ago
> America is drowning in unnecessary regulations/taxes/red tape. You must be joking... - Unlike most OECD countries, the U.S. lets employers fire workers without “just cause” or severance. - The U.S. is the only OECD country with no national paid parental leave mandate. - There is no federal privacy law or something like GDPR - No nationwide rules or regulations on Payday lending caps with interest often >450% APR - Fines for U.S. workplace safety penalties are flat and modest - TSCA lets many chemical substances stay on the market, while for example in the EU, the REACH program requires precautionary testing and registration. - U.S. oil & gas flaring rules are a joke
- yostrovs 1y ago
  Just because some regulations that you would like to exist, but don't, doesn't mean there aren't regulations that exist, but shouldn't. I'm most US states you need a license to cut hair. I'm summer states you need a license to braid hair. These licenses are actually expensive and hard to obtain, keeping a lot of talented people from actually working in the field. I bet in China you can just cut someone's hair.

powerapple 1y ago

we like to simplify things for the ease of understanding. I wish everything can be attributed to one factor, the world would be so simple and easy to understand. That said, I do have my own understanding on what has contributed to China's rise, and I agree, the engineer aspect has a big play in it: I read the Lean Startup book, while I was reading it, I realize that a lot happened in the country share similarity to startups. Chinese government is very flexible, they do A/B testing with economic policies, pivoting all the time, the measurement, it is so interesting to see how concepts are very similar in both governing and running a startup.