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Regardless of incentives I think this is some of the most important research they should be doing. As a species we need to get a better understanding of the pro

Regardless of incentives I think this is some of the most important research they should be doing. As a species we need to get a better understanding of the probability of life on other planets and therefore a better understanding of fermi's paradox in case the dark forest theory is correct. So if NASA has an incentive to discover potential pathways for extraterrestrial life... great!

dash2 1y ago
The problem is that the incentive is biased against scepticism. So the process is more likely to find potential pathways but not notice obstacles or counter arguments.
pavel_lishin 1y ago
> a better understanding of fermi's paradox in case the dark forest theory is correct. We know so little about this, that we can't even begin to estimate the probabilities. It seems like other things are known potential dangers to us, no?
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
- robbomacrae 1y ago
  Yes and this helps us make a start. It slightly increases the odds of life elsewhere. And yes there are other dangers.. climate change, nuclear armageddon, bio weapons etc but the existence of another problem doesn’t mean you shouldn’t also attempt to tackle this one. Specially as unlike the others a band aid seems somewhat tractable.. Researcher: “with this new device we think we can attempt to create a gravity wave in the lab” Professor: “we should consider whether this might violate the 2028 embargo on dark forest beacon technology”
catigula 1y ago
A non-trivial faction of our government has been teasing knowledge of some sort of non-human intelligent lifeform (that word isn't considered precisely accurate) on EARTH. This isn't some crackpot theory, they've been having congressional hearings about it and congresspeople say it's real. You can think they are or aren't credible or being lied to, but, if congresspeople are part of or victims of some sort of psy-op with vague parameters and goals, our entire system of government is basically forfeit. I realize this is difficult to deal with but it's a pretty well-established fact at this point. We don't need to go anywhere for this information.
- fwip 1y ago
  Making the analysis harder is the fact that those politicians are either exceedingly stupid or brazen liars, or both.
  - catigula 1y ago
    Credible non-politicians, people in sensitive CIA or senior military leadership have consistently made these claims. They may all be liars, but none seem particularly stupid. One problem is that we haven't gotten a "UAP Snowden". Such a person has seen a serious chilling effect.
    - rkomorn 1y ago
      Or maybe there's been "no UAP Snowden" because there's actually nothing to leak.
      - kjkjadksj 1y ago
        By that logic there was nothing to leak before snowden
        rkomorn 1y ago
        By that logic, you're also hiding the truth that you are actually seven sentient potatoes in a wetsuit. It just hasn't been revealed yet. Except there is no "logic" to thinking a leak just hasn't happened "yet". There's no "logic" to thinking that the absence of a leak implies there is information to be leaked.
      - catigula 1y ago
        No, that isn't possible. Note that my post was designed to be agnostic. Leaking a psy-op, or leaking the extensive, close-up details of UAP phenomena which we do have (president Obama himself said there are confirmed unknown phenomena, taking him at his word on this topic), is still a Snowden style leak, especially if they continue to do this dog and pony show in congress and elsewhere. There's also not a nuclear physics Snowden, or F-47 Snowden, do you think there's nothing to leak?

dash2 1y ago

The problem is that the incentive is biased against scepticism. So the process is more likely to find potential pathways but not notice obstacles or counter arguments.

pavel_lishin 1y ago

> a better understanding of fermi's paradox in case the dark forest theory is correct. We know so little about this, that we can't even begin to estimate the probabilities. It seems like other things are known potential dangers to us, no?

deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
robbomacrae 1y ago
Yes and this helps us make a start. It slightly increases the odds of life elsewhere. And yes there are other dangers.. climate change, nuclear armageddon, bio weapons etc but the existence of another problem doesn’t mean you shouldn’t also attempt to tackle this one. Specially as unlike the others a band aid seems somewhat tractable.. Researcher: “with this new device we think we can attempt to create a gravity wave in the lab” Professor: “we should consider whether this might violate the 2028 embargo on dark forest beacon technology”

catigula 1y ago

A non-trivial faction of our government has been teasing knowledge of some sort of non-human intelligent lifeform (that word isn't considered precisely accurate) on EARTH. This isn't some crackpot theory, they've been having congressional hearings about it and congresspeople say it's real. You can think they are or aren't credible or being lied to, but, if congresspeople are part of or victims of some sort of psy-op with vague parameters and goals, our entire system of government is basically forfeit. I realize this is difficult to deal with but it's a pretty well-established fact at this point. We don't need to go anywhere for this information.

fwip 1y ago
Making the analysis harder is the fact that those politicians are either exceedingly stupid or brazen liars, or both.
- catigula 1y ago
  Credible non-politicians, people in sensitive CIA or senior military leadership have consistently made these claims. They may all be liars, but none seem particularly stupid. One problem is that we haven't gotten a "UAP Snowden". Such a person has seen a serious chilling effect.
  - rkomorn 1y ago
    Or maybe there's been "no UAP Snowden" because there's actually nothing to leak.
    - kjkjadksj 1y ago
      By that logic there was nothing to leak before snowden
      - rkomorn 1y ago
        By that logic, you're also hiding the truth that you are actually seven sentient potatoes in a wetsuit. It just hasn't been revealed yet. Except there is no "logic" to thinking a leak just hasn't happened "yet". There's no "logic" to thinking that the absence of a leak implies there is information to be leaked.
    - catigula 1y ago
      No, that isn't possible. Note that my post was designed to be agnostic. Leaking a psy-op, or leaking the extensive, close-up details of UAP phenomena which we do have (president Obama himself said there are confirmed unknown phenomena, taking him at his word on this topic), is still a Snowden style leak, especially if they continue to do this dog and pony show in congress and elsewhere. There's also not a nuclear physics Snowden, or F-47 Snowden, do you think there's nothing to leak?