4 ms·

The effect of a bad policy doesn't necessarily end when the policy does. The economy has inertia so some effects, such as inflation, are self-reinforcing and ne

The effect of a bad policy doesn't necessarily end when the policy does. The economy has inertia so some effects, such as inflation, are self-reinforcing and need active undoing even when the policy is relaxed.

baron816 1y ago
Correct. We’re not reversing things anytime soon, and the longer things stay like this, the more damage will be done.
- rsynnott 1y ago
  At least on the US tariffs thing, congress can put Trump back in his box and revert to normalcy any time it wants to; the threat of stagflation might make it do that. The previous stagflation incident was more driven by outside forces.
  - JumpCrisscross 1y ago
    > on the US tariffs thing, congress can put Trump back in his box and revert to normalcy any time it wants to We’ve already lost export market share. China, Russia and India have already begun building a trade bloc. FDI has already been trashed. We’re already in for a world of hurt. And personally, I’m eager to ensure it lands disproportionately on his voters and donors.
    - CamperBob2 1y ago
      And personally, I’m eager to ensure it lands disproportionately on his voters and donors. That would certainly be nice, but we're all in the boat together. There is no safe haven when idiots are in charge. But you see, dogs and cats were being eaten, and the other lady cackled too much...
    - cs702 1y ago
      > We’re already in for a world of hurt. I fear you're right, but hope you're not. Yes, this is wishful thinking on my part. I don't want to wish ill on anyone.
      - amanaplanacanal 1y ago
        Wishing it in the idiots who inflicted it on the rest of us feels entirely appropriate.
    - Hikikomori 1y ago
      Pretty sure America is going to keep shooting itself in its foot in confusion.
      - stock_toaster 1y ago
        Well... We do have a lot of guns over here! /s
    - rsynnott 1y ago
      I think it's likely that if there was a rapid reversal, with Congress taking away the power to mess with tariffs and making it clear that it was permanently gone, there'd be some damage, but things would largely go back to normal. Not enough time has really passed for things to change _that_ much; many of the tariffs aren't _actually_ in place yet.
      - ta1243 1y ago
        The world has seen how unreliable the US is. Its not even just the tarrifs, its the tarrifs applied at random, based on how happy the Don is. The world has seen the "checks and balances" don't exist, a populist leader can do whatever they want for any reason and has no accountability. The horse has bolted, you can't ctrl-z this.
        rsynnott 1y ago
        In this case, there are laws which he claims allow him to do what he's doing (some disagree, and that's moving through the courts, though with the current Supreme Court who knows). Those laws _can be revoked_, though. The meme that congress is powerless against him is not really entirely correct.
      - marcosdumay 1y ago
        > if there was a rapid reversal I have some bad news. It's already some 8 months too late for "rapid". > Not enough time has really passed for things to change _that_ much Here in Brazil we are in a mini economic boom because every single country is willing to pay a premium on anything that didn't come from the US. The EU is shutting up internal racist and protectionist dissidents (strong on their 2 largest economies) so that they can diversify from you. Most of the world is discussing independent payment systems... Nato countries are organizing to defend against the US and China and Russia are promising military protection to Latin America. I wonder if things changed that fast when WWI started, but it absolutely never changed that fast in my lifetime.
        rsynnott 1y ago
    - throw0101d 1y ago
      > We’ve already lost export market share. Probably more importantly, the US has lost trust.
  - jghn 1y ago
    Don't worry. Congress will take back this power as soon as a Dem is in office.
    - pjmlp 1y ago
      As they say in Austria, hope dies last, yet it dies as well.
      - deleted 1y ago
        [deleted]
      - deleted 1y ago
        [deleted]
    - mbfg 1y ago
      Will there be another election?
      - Integrape 1y ago
        Most likely, but with a predetermined outcome.
      - vlachen 1y ago
        I've honestly wondered this too. But we cannot obey in advance. If they're going to try and take it from us, then there should be a fight every step of the way. That means our cynical perspectives, as right as they may be, could lead us into a self-fulfilling prophecy.
        BlackjackCF 1y ago
        I tell myself if there weren’t going to be elections or if the admin had a sure fire way to compromise them, they wouldn’t be trying so hard to push through redistricting in every single state there’s a Republican-controlled state house/senate.
        1y ago
onlyrealcuzzo 1y ago
Right. Our closest allies do not see us as a reliable partner anymore. That's not going to change for quite some time, AFTER we start moving in a direction amenable to them again. We are still swimming violently against the currents of our allies.

baron816 1y ago

Correct. We’re not reversing things anytime soon, and the longer things stay like this, the more damage will be done.

rsynnott 1y ago
At least on the US tariffs thing, congress can put Trump back in his box and revert to normalcy any time it wants to; the threat of stagflation might make it do that. The previous stagflation incident was more driven by outside forces.
- JumpCrisscross 1y ago
  > on the US tariffs thing, congress can put Trump back in his box and revert to normalcy any time it wants to We’ve already lost export market share. China, Russia and India have already begun building a trade bloc. FDI has already been trashed. We’re already in for a world of hurt. And personally, I’m eager to ensure it lands disproportionately on his voters and donors.
  - CamperBob2 1y ago
    And personally, I’m eager to ensure it lands disproportionately on his voters and donors. That would certainly be nice, but we're all in the boat together. There is no safe haven when idiots are in charge. But you see, dogs and cats were being eaten, and the other lady cackled too much...
  - cs702 1y ago
    > We’re already in for a world of hurt. I fear you're right, but hope you're not. Yes, this is wishful thinking on my part. I don't want to wish ill on anyone.
    - amanaplanacanal 1y ago
      Wishing it in the idiots who inflicted it on the rest of us feels entirely appropriate.
  - Hikikomori 1y ago
    Pretty sure America is going to keep shooting itself in its foot in confusion.
    - stock_toaster 1y ago
      Well... We do have a lot of guns over here! /s
  - rsynnott 1y ago
    I think it's likely that if there was a rapid reversal, with Congress taking away the power to mess with tariffs and making it clear that it was permanently gone, there'd be some damage, but things would largely go back to normal. Not enough time has really passed for things to change _that_ much; many of the tariffs aren't _actually_ in place yet.
    - ta1243 1y ago
      The world has seen how unreliable the US is. Its not even just the tarrifs, its the tarrifs applied at random, based on how happy the Don is. The world has seen the "checks and balances" don't exist, a populist leader can do whatever they want for any reason and has no accountability. The horse has bolted, you can't ctrl-z this.
      - rsynnott 1y ago
        In this case, there are laws which he claims allow him to do what he's doing (some disagree, and that's moving through the courts, though with the current Supreme Court who knows). Those laws _can be revoked_, though. The meme that congress is powerless against him is not really entirely correct.
    - marcosdumay 1y ago
      > if there was a rapid reversal I have some bad news. It's already some 8 months too late for "rapid". > Not enough time has really passed for things to change _that_ much Here in Brazil we are in a mini economic boom because every single country is willing to pay a premium on anything that didn't come from the US. The EU is shutting up internal racist and protectionist dissidents (strong on their 2 largest economies) so that they can diversify from you. Most of the world is discussing independent payment systems... Nato countries are organizing to defend against the US and China and Russia are promising military protection to Latin America. I wonder if things changed that fast when WWI started, but it absolutely never changed that fast in my lifetime.
      - rsynnott 1y ago
  - throw0101d 1y ago
    > We’ve already lost export market share. Probably more importantly, the US has lost trust.
- jghn 1y ago
  Don't worry. Congress will take back this power as soon as a Dem is in office.
  - pjmlp 1y ago
    As they say in Austria, hope dies last, yet it dies as well.
    - deleted 1y ago
      [deleted]
    - deleted 1y ago
      [deleted]
  - mbfg 1y ago
    Will there be another election?
    - Integrape 1y ago
      Most likely, but with a predetermined outcome.
    - vlachen 1y ago
      I've honestly wondered this too. But we cannot obey in advance. If they're going to try and take it from us, then there should be a fight every step of the way. That means our cynical perspectives, as right as they may be, could lead us into a self-fulfilling prophecy.
      - BlackjackCF 1y ago
        I tell myself if there weren’t going to be elections or if the admin had a sure fire way to compromise them, they wouldn’t be trying so hard to push through redistricting in every single state there’s a Republican-controlled state house/senate.
        1y ago

onlyrealcuzzo 1y ago

Right. Our closest allies do not see us as a reliable partner anymore. That's not going to change for quite some time, AFTER we start moving in a direction amenable to them again. We are still swimming violently against the currents of our allies.