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Experts are often worse than laymen in predicting macro developments because they are narrowed by their focus and biased towards it. Tetlock's Superforecasting
by aswegs8 1y ago
Experts are often worse than laymen in predicting macro developments because they are narrowed by their focus and biased towards it. Tetlock's Superforecasting is a great book on this.
Some condensed source I found on the topic:
https://www.ing.com/Newsroom/News/The-more-famous-an-expert-is-the-less-accurate-their-forecasts-are.htm https://www.ing.com/Newsroom/News/The-more-famous-an-expert-...
- theologic 1y agoI would like to confirm that I've been highly influenced by Tetlock, and I appreciate his work. It was an integral part of a strategy in a business group I was running. With that stated, if you can see beyond his vitriol, Nassim Taleb has some valid comments toward Tetlock's methodologies. I love Taleb, but hate his tendency to try and shock people. However, he does raise valid concerns about fat tails.