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But how often is it cloudy and windless for weeks at a time? And for those once-every-few-years scenarios, why shouldn't we build (far cheaper) carbon-captured

by crote 1y ago

But how often is it cloudy and windless for weeks at a time? And for those once-every-few-years scenarios, why shouldn't we build (far cheaper) carbon-captured natural gas peaker plants? Besides, you've got to keep in mind that we aren't going to be building for yearly-average kWh consumption. Companies will be building overcapacity to take advantage of high-demand/low-supply peak pricing. I don't think it is unlikely that we'll end up with a situation where PV on an overcast day is enough for "baseload", with the practically-free electricity on sunny/windy days opening up new economic opportunities.

mkj 1y ago
I agree generally, but is carbon-captured natural gas generation actually a thing? The only carbon capture I've heard of is at the gas production site removing CO2 from the reservoir gas and pumping it back underground - that's not after combustion. (And the pumping it back underground hasn't been particularly successful, eg https://www.boilingcold.com.au/regulator-limits-chevrons-troubled-gorgon-co2-injection-to-one-third-capacity/ https://www.boilingcold.com.au/regulator-limits-chevrons-tro... )
throw0101a 1y ago
> But how often is it cloudy and windless for weeks at a time? '“Energy Droughts” in Wind and Solar Can Last Nearly a Week, Research Shows': * https://www.pnnl.gov/news-media/energy-droughts-wind-and-solar-can-last-nearly-week-research-shows https://www.pnnl.gov/news-media/energy-droughts-wind-and-sol... See also: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunkelflaute https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunkelflaute I think it would be location-dependent (low risk that (e.g.) the UK would be windless for long stretches of time, especially off the coast).
- natmaka 1y ago
  Not at continental scale, and grids are or will soon be at this scale. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032115017013 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136403211... https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0960148116308680 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S09601... https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148119302319#abs0010 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096014811...
2000UltraDeluxe 1y ago
If it was only a matter of 'once-every-few-years' then current emergency capacity will suffice. The problem is that: A) It happens often enough to be a problem emergency capacity can't handle. B) Natural gas is not always an option (especially when Russia is the only readily available seller in the area and you DON'T want to be dependent on a potentially hostile neighbor). C) Existing storage solutions require a massive investment in local solutions, or in the national grid if storage is centralized. We need to re-think the entire idea about energy always being cheap and available, while somehow preventing those with more money from simply monopolizing supply by outbidding everyone else. You won't solve that with batteries. Many therefore try to maintain the current situation by doing this the old way.
- bryanlarsen 1y ago
  A. We handle dankelflaute's now, and as long as we don't decommission gas peakers, we'll still be able to continue to handle them. B. Europe has lots of natgas storage. 100 days of storage isn't enough for independence from Russia now, but if we're only using gas for dankelflaute's 5 days of the year, thats ~20 years of storage. Batteries are extremely cost competitive today for overnight storage, and are marginally cost competitive for weekly storage. That's enough to handle everything except for a dankelflaute. In which case see above.

by crote 1y ago

mkj 1y ago

I agree generally, but is carbon-captured natural gas generation actually a thing? The only carbon capture I've heard of is at the gas production site removing CO2 from the reservoir gas and pumping it back underground - that's not after combustion. (And the pumping it back underground hasn't been particularly successful, eg https://www.boilingcold.com.au/regulator-limits-chevrons-troubled-gorgon-co2-injection-to-one-third-capacity/ https://www.boilingcold.com.au/regulator-limits-chevrons-tro... )

throw0101a 1y ago

> But how often is it cloudy and windless for weeks at a time? '“Energy Droughts” in Wind and Solar Can Last Nearly a Week, Research Shows': * https://www.pnnl.gov/news-media/energy-droughts-wind-and-solar-can-last-nearly-week-research-shows https://www.pnnl.gov/news-media/energy-droughts-wind-and-sol... See also: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunkelflaute https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunkelflaute I think it would be location-dependent (low risk that (e.g.) the UK would be windless for long stretches of time, especially off the coast).

natmaka 1y ago
Not at continental scale, and grids are or will soon be at this scale. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032115017013 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136403211... https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0960148116308680 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S09601... https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148119302319#abs0010 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096014811...

2000UltraDeluxe 1y ago

If it was only a matter of 'once-every-few-years' then current emergency capacity will suffice. The problem is that: A) It happens often enough to be a problem emergency capacity can't handle. B) Natural gas is not always an option (especially when Russia is the only readily available seller in the area and you DON'T want to be dependent on a potentially hostile neighbor). C) Existing storage solutions require a massive investment in local solutions, or in the national grid if storage is centralized. We need to re-think the entire idea about energy always being cheap and available, while somehow preventing those with more money from simply monopolizing supply by outbidding everyone else. You won't solve that with batteries. Many therefore try to maintain the current situation by doing this the old way.

bryanlarsen 1y ago
A. We handle dankelflaute's now, and as long as we don't decommission gas peakers, we'll still be able to continue to handle them. B. Europe has lots of natgas storage. 100 days of storage isn't enough for independence from Russia now, but if we're only using gas for dankelflaute's 5 days of the year, thats ~20 years of storage. Batteries are extremely cost competitive today for overnight storage, and are marginally cost competitive for weekly storage. That's enough to handle everything except for a dankelflaute. In which case see above.