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I don’t really get why ASML is putting money into Mistral AI. ASML is specialized in lithography machines. Mistral, on the other hand, is yet another LLM startu

I don’t really get why ASML is putting money into Mistral AI. ASML is specialized in lithography machines. Mistral, on the other hand, is yet another LLM startup. What’s the actual synergy here? The closest angle I can imagine is that AI workloads drive demand for more chips, but I believe ASML is already selling everything it can make.

Almondsetat 1y ago
AI is being used more and more in chip design
- amelius 1y ago
  LLMs too? (outside of educating new engineers)
  - whimsicalism 1y ago
    transformer expertise has a tendency to transfer. these are curve fitting machines par exemplar and there are many curves in chip design
- booi 1y ago
  I don't believe there are any "LLM"-style AI being used for chip design yet (if ever). It is a different problem space and the current RL and ML practices are still state of the art.
adcoleman6 1y ago
While I associate Mistral with LLMs, the electric design automation software used for planning and designing chips already uses machine learning/reinforcement learning for some approaches. AI could play an even greater role in chip design in the future.
- aDyslecticCrow 1y ago
  Llms are fundamentally different algorithms and problem space to IC design and production. Why would mistral be helpful? I dont see how even the algorithms involved translate well. IC design is closer to a physics simulator connected to a heuristic optimizer. Mabie some ideas from alfageometry or alfafold could be applied, but thats not the kind of research mistral is doing. And there are big players with existing expertise in the IC design space. Why not just fund them to do more research?
aDyslecticCrow 1y ago
Quite complex algorithms are used to compensate and tune for pattern clarity and focus in high end semiconductor production. Its a field that has used neutral networks before. (As people pushed down the size pre-EUV, apparently alot of wierd techniques were layered to produce features at or smaller than the wavelength) But mistral just makes llms. There is no reason to believe experts in llm would be at all competent at quantom scale physics simulation and prediction. It feels more logical to invest on the existing researchers and companies in the nanotechnology design field to adapt newer AI techniques.
- sroussey 1y ago
  Multi patterning to get effective smaller wavelengths has been around a while. It’s cheaper to reuse machines you already own, but slows down production. OpenAI does more than LLMs, they have bio ML research etc. and Google has AlphaFold. It would not surprise me if Mistral had an ML team on physics related to work that ASML could use.
  - aDyslecticCrow 1y ago
    I suppose, but i don't feel like that makes mistral special enough to excuse this amount of funding. They would need clever researchers with resources to do research. The kind of AI we're talking about would likely not benefit from data-center scale training either. So why the 1.7B euro? That amount of money could fund multiple small dedicated research labs for exactly the domain ASML is interested in. I don't think it adds up if this is truly for multi-patterning or pattern exposure correction technology. As others mention it could be for entering and grabbing some value from down-stream technologies (actual investment expecting return of some sort) but it's odd how they skip over like 200 steps between their industry and the industry they invest in. Its like iron ore mine investing in precision screws. Its down the value added chain but such a massive leap that it makes me scratch my head.
amelius 1y ago
The most strategic move ASML can make is change its licensing structure such that Apple will have to pay 30% of their revenue for using their Fab platform.
- robertlagrant 1y ago
  I wonder what it would cost Apple to recreate ASML.
  - yvoschaap 1y ago
    Ask China, they've been trying for a decade.
    - dharma1 1y ago
      Give them enough time and they will. EUV will hit limits anyway in a decade. For china it's DUV+packaging for now, NIL/DSA mid-term, and MoS₂/2D chips long term. But wafer scale, defect free 2D logic is 20–30 yrs out, so no EUV shortcut anytime soon
    - renewiltord 1y ago
      Yeah but China wasn't (and won't be) given the tech. The fastest path for Apple would be to get POTUS a gold iPad in exchange for the US removing exclusivity terms for the EUV tech they gave ASML. And SMIC is a decade or less behind without any of that.
    - jeroenhd 1y ago
      Thanks to a combination of espionage and homegrown Chinese technology advancements, they went from "decades behind" to "years behind" quite rapidly on several critical parts of the chip manufacturing process. China isn't quite there yet, but they will catch up. The question then becomes whether China can surpass the west or if they're stuck in lock-step behind us.
  - ahartmetz 1y ago
    Years of time and an organizational distraction more importantly than money IMO. Then the same for TSMC if the goal was autonomy.
espadrine 1y ago
Past Mistral investors: JC Decaux (urban advertizing), CMA CGM CEO (maritime logistics), Iliad CEO (Internet service provider), Salesforce (client relation management), Samsung (electronics), Cisco (network hardware), NVIDIA (chips designer)[0]. I agree ASML is a surprising choice, but I guess investments are not necessarily directly connected to the company purpose. BTW, I generated that list by asking my default search engine, which is Mistral Le Chat: indeed, using Cerebras chips, the responses are so fast that it became competitive with asking Google Search. A lot of comments claim it is worse, but in my experience it is the fastest, and for all but very advanced mathematical questions, it has similar quality to its best competitors. Even LMArena’s Elo indicates it wins 46% of the time against ChatGPT. [0]: https://mistral.ai/fr/news/mistral-ai-raises-1-7-b-to-accelerate-technological-progress-with-ai https://mistral.ai/fr/news/mistral-ai-raises-1-7-b-to-accele...
- andruby 1y ago
  The list seems to be missing a couple of other notable investors: Eric Schmidt (former Google CEO), Andreessen Horowitz, Lightspeed Venture Partners, General Catalyst and Microsoft (only $16M).
  - boringg 1y ago
    I didn't realize Mistral was A16z's pony in the race unless the splashed across the board(?)
dncornholio 1y ago
I also believe Trump has a big part of this. Exporting will be less profitable. So business will rather invest in EU than in an American AI company. This to increase local demand for their hardware.
whimsicalism 1y ago
truly. if a company can’t find a way to reinvest money in its core business, it should return it to stockholders (or worse case, invest it in public markets) rather than trying to become a stock picker for a different industry. it speaks to the likely regulatory overheads in returning money to investors that they choose this route
SilverElfin 1y ago
Maybe it is about defending their business by going vertical? Others are too, right? Like OpenAI is partnering with Broadcom. Google and Amazon have their own chips. Nvidia will probably need to do more than build AI training chips as well.
LargoLasskhyfv 1y ago
Maybe something like https://www.cadence.com/en_US/home/ai/overview.html https://www.cadence.com/en_US/home/ai/overview.html ? Everybody in that space does it, or at least tries to.
bytesandbits 1y ago
Mistral needs a looooooot of GPUs. GPUs are made by Nvidia. Nvidia asks TSMC to make more. TSMC needs new lines to produce. TSMC acquires more machines to make new lines. TSMC buys from the only monopoly that has those machines. ASML. Now ASML happy, each machine costs 100s of millions, ASML makes back money.

Almondsetat 1y ago

AI is being used more and more in chip design

amelius 1y ago
LLMs too? (outside of educating new engineers)
- whimsicalism 1y ago
  transformer expertise has a tendency to transfer. these are curve fitting machines par exemplar and there are many curves in chip design
booi 1y ago
I don't believe there are any "LLM"-style AI being used for chip design yet (if ever). It is a different problem space and the current RL and ML practices are still state of the art.

adcoleman6 1y ago

While I associate Mistral with LLMs, the electric design automation software used for planning and designing chips already uses machine learning/reinforcement learning for some approaches. AI could play an even greater role in chip design in the future.

aDyslecticCrow 1y ago
Llms are fundamentally different algorithms and problem space to IC design and production. Why would mistral be helpful? I dont see how even the algorithms involved translate well. IC design is closer to a physics simulator connected to a heuristic optimizer. Mabie some ideas from alfageometry or alfafold could be applied, but thats not the kind of research mistral is doing. And there are big players with existing expertise in the IC design space. Why not just fund them to do more research?

aDyslecticCrow 1y ago

Quite complex algorithms are used to compensate and tune for pattern clarity and focus in high end semiconductor production. Its a field that has used neutral networks before. (As people pushed down the size pre-EUV, apparently alot of wierd techniques were layered to produce features at or smaller than the wavelength) But mistral just makes llms. There is no reason to believe experts in llm would be at all competent at quantom scale physics simulation and prediction. It feels more logical to invest on the existing researchers and companies in the nanotechnology design field to adapt newer AI techniques.

sroussey 1y ago
Multi patterning to get effective smaller wavelengths has been around a while. It’s cheaper to reuse machines you already own, but slows down production. OpenAI does more than LLMs, they have bio ML research etc. and Google has AlphaFold. It would not surprise me if Mistral had an ML team on physics related to work that ASML could use.
- aDyslecticCrow 1y ago
  I suppose, but i don't feel like that makes mistral special enough to excuse this amount of funding. They would need clever researchers with resources to do research. The kind of AI we're talking about would likely not benefit from data-center scale training either. So why the 1.7B euro? That amount of money could fund multiple small dedicated research labs for exactly the domain ASML is interested in. I don't think it adds up if this is truly for multi-patterning or pattern exposure correction technology. As others mention it could be for entering and grabbing some value from down-stream technologies (actual investment expecting return of some sort) but it's odd how they skip over like 200 steps between their industry and the industry they invest in. Its like iron ore mine investing in precision screws. Its down the value added chain but such a massive leap that it makes me scratch my head.

amelius 1y ago

The most strategic move ASML can make is change its licensing structure such that Apple will have to pay 30% of their revenue for using their Fab platform.

robertlagrant 1y ago
I wonder what it would cost Apple to recreate ASML.
- yvoschaap 1y ago
  Ask China, they've been trying for a decade.
  - dharma1 1y ago
    Give them enough time and they will. EUV will hit limits anyway in a decade. For china it's DUV+packaging for now, NIL/DSA mid-term, and MoS₂/2D chips long term. But wafer scale, defect free 2D logic is 20–30 yrs out, so no EUV shortcut anytime soon
  - renewiltord 1y ago
    Yeah but China wasn't (and won't be) given the tech. The fastest path for Apple would be to get POTUS a gold iPad in exchange for the US removing exclusivity terms for the EUV tech they gave ASML. And SMIC is a decade or less behind without any of that.
  - jeroenhd 1y ago
    Thanks to a combination of espionage and homegrown Chinese technology advancements, they went from "decades behind" to "years behind" quite rapidly on several critical parts of the chip manufacturing process. China isn't quite there yet, but they will catch up. The question then becomes whether China can surpass the west or if they're stuck in lock-step behind us.
- ahartmetz 1y ago
  Years of time and an organizational distraction more importantly than money IMO. Then the same for TSMC if the goal was autonomy.

espadrine 1y ago

Past Mistral investors: JC Decaux (urban advertizing), CMA CGM CEO (maritime logistics), Iliad CEO (Internet service provider), Salesforce (client relation management), Samsung (electronics), Cisco (network hardware), NVIDIA (chips designer)[0]. I agree ASML is a surprising choice, but I guess investments are not necessarily directly connected to the company purpose. BTW, I generated that list by asking my default search engine, which is Mistral Le Chat: indeed, using Cerebras chips, the responses are so fast that it became competitive with asking Google Search. A lot of comments claim it is worse, but in my experience it is the fastest, and for all but very advanced mathematical questions, it has similar quality to its best competitors. Even LMArena’s Elo indicates it wins 46% of the time against ChatGPT. [0]: https://mistral.ai/fr/news/mistral-ai-raises-1-7-b-to-accelerate-technological-progress-with-ai https://mistral.ai/fr/news/mistral-ai-raises-1-7-b-to-accele...

andruby 1y ago
The list seems to be missing a couple of other notable investors: Eric Schmidt (former Google CEO), Andreessen Horowitz, Lightspeed Venture Partners, General Catalyst and Microsoft (only $16M).
- boringg 1y ago
  I didn't realize Mistral was A16z's pony in the race unless the splashed across the board(?)

dncornholio 1y ago

I also believe Trump has a big part of this. Exporting will be less profitable. So business will rather invest in EU than in an American AI company. This to increase local demand for their hardware.

whimsicalism 1y ago

truly. if a company can’t find a way to reinvest money in its core business, it should return it to stockholders (or worse case, invest it in public markets) rather than trying to become a stock picker for a different industry. it speaks to the likely regulatory overheads in returning money to investors that they choose this route

SilverElfin 1y ago

Maybe it is about defending their business by going vertical? Others are too, right? Like OpenAI is partnering with Broadcom. Google and Amazon have their own chips. Nvidia will probably need to do more than build AI training chips as well.

LargoLasskhyfv 1y ago

Maybe something like https://www.cadence.com/en_US/home/ai/overview.html https://www.cadence.com/en_US/home/ai/overview.html ? Everybody in that space does it, or at least tries to.

bytesandbits 1y ago

Mistral needs a looooooot of GPUs. GPUs are made by Nvidia. Nvidia asks TSMC to make more. TSMC needs new lines to produce. TSMC acquires more machines to make new lines. TSMC buys from the only monopoly that has those machines. ASML. Now ASML happy, each machine costs 100s of millions, ASML makes back money.