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When we were kids, my dad felt like he was always the last one to buy into the stock market. He would buy, it would peak, and then it would crater. I was gonn

When we were kids, my dad felt like he was always the last one to buy into the stock market. He would buy, it would peak, and then it would crater. I was gonna buy in when the tariff shock hit, but it started to rebound before I got in. The 40% rise since then feels so irrational (though it's "only" 20% if you ignore the tariff shock). I feel like I'm about to be my dad - watch the whole climb going "it's gotta come down, right?", capitulate at the top, and then have the bottom fall out.

nemomarx 1y ago
How much are you timing when to buy vs buying in little bits continuously? If you just buy a set amount per month your cost will balance out better I think
- e40 1y ago
  Dollar cost averaging is the way.
  - Der_Einzige 1y ago
    Diamond hands is the way. Just keep holding!!!
    - stogot 1y ago
      > Diamond hands is the way. Just keep holding!!! You’re mocking a well known, risk adverse market investment strategy.
      - deleted 1y ago
        [deleted]
      - Der_Einzige 1y ago
        Because an even more well known, even more risk adverse market investment strategy is right in front of you. BUY AND HOLD! If you're not renetech/a HFT company, you might as well give up on ever finding reliable arbitrage/alpha. You're not a market maker or market mover.
- arresin 1y ago
  Time in the market vs timing the market
ai-christianson 1y ago
Time in the market beats timing the market.
SoftTalker 1y ago
This is why you dollar cost average. Buy every month, be in it for the long haul. Trying to time the market is futile unless you have insider information. Then it's illegal.
aeblyve 1y ago
I believe USD has devalued by a comparable amount since Liberation Day, so a big portion of that is the USD falling relative to stock. Edit: https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/us-dollar-declines https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/us-dollar-de...
- AnimalMuppet 1y ago
  You don't have to "believe". If you can find data that indicate that the dollar has devalued 40% (or even 20%) since "Liberation" Day, I'd like to see it.
  - aeblyve 1y ago
    From memory, I think it was something like 10% since Liberation Day.
bluecalm 1y ago
It's good to have some humility and accept the market is smarter than you. The best price you're going to get is today. Every next day it's going to be more expensive by daily (risk free rate + equity risk premium) +/- variance you are not able to predict. Maybe some people are able to predict it but it's not you.
ramesh31 1y ago
>When we were kids, my dad felt like he was always the last one to buy into the stock market. He would buy, it would peak, and then it would crater. But if your dad bought and held when you were a kid he'd be up 1000% now. You simply cannot time the market, ever. But over time, "stocks go up" is pretty much guaranteed. The people in charge won't let it not be.
Workaccount2 1y ago
Remember that assets rise to counter inflation. So if the market believes there will be inflation, it will naturally rise to counter that. People are trading dollars for shares to shelter from the dollar losing value.
dehrmann 1y ago
Ideally, you'd set your asset allocation some time ago, and you'd mostly be in or out already, with surplus income going in every paycheck (or so). You only sell when you shift your asset allocation or need money for something, and you adjust your allocation (and risk profile) depending on your future needs.
bongodongobob 1y ago
Stop trying to time it. Auto invest weekly/monthly and never look at the balance.
camel_Snake 1y ago
He sounds like the fictional 'Bob' and likely made out like a bandit, assuming he held. https://www.wealthmorning.com/2023/09/15/648774/meet-bob-the-unluckiest-investor-ever/ https://www.wealthmorning.com/2023/09/15/648774/meet-bob-the...
thisisit 1y ago
Apart from the infamous timing the market, there are two adages to keep in mind - the stock market is not the economy and markets can remain irrational for a long time. The whole tariff cycle has been irrational move. The tariffs were supposedly "removed" even when it was not - there was always a 10% default tariff. Maybe everyone is expecting a rate cut due to this tariff madness.

nemomarx 1y ago

How much are you timing when to buy vs buying in little bits continuously? If you just buy a set amount per month your cost will balance out better I think

e40 1y ago
Dollar cost averaging is the way.
- Der_Einzige 1y ago
  Diamond hands is the way. Just keep holding!!!
  - stogot 1y ago
    > Diamond hands is the way. Just keep holding!!! You’re mocking a well known, risk adverse market investment strategy.
    - deleted 1y ago
      [deleted]
    - Der_Einzige 1y ago
      Because an even more well known, even more risk adverse market investment strategy is right in front of you. BUY AND HOLD! If you're not renetech/a HFT company, you might as well give up on ever finding reliable arbitrage/alpha. You're not a market maker or market mover.
arresin 1y ago
Time in the market vs timing the market

ai-christianson 1y ago

Time in the market beats timing the market.

SoftTalker 1y ago

This is why you dollar cost average. Buy every month, be in it for the long haul. Trying to time the market is futile unless you have insider information. Then it's illegal.

aeblyve 1y ago

I believe USD has devalued by a comparable amount since Liberation Day, so a big portion of that is the USD falling relative to stock. Edit: https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/us-dollar-declines https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/us-dollar-de...

AnimalMuppet 1y ago
You don't have to "believe". If you can find data that indicate that the dollar has devalued 40% (or even 20%) since "Liberation" Day, I'd like to see it.
- aeblyve 1y ago
  From memory, I think it was something like 10% since Liberation Day.

bluecalm 1y ago

It's good to have some humility and accept the market is smarter than you. The best price you're going to get is today. Every next day it's going to be more expensive by daily (risk free rate + equity risk premium) +/- variance you are not able to predict. Maybe some people are able to predict it but it's not you.

ramesh31 1y ago

>When we were kids, my dad felt like he was always the last one to buy into the stock market. He would buy, it would peak, and then it would crater. But if your dad bought and held when you were a kid he'd be up 1000% now. You simply cannot time the market, ever. But over time, "stocks go up" is pretty much guaranteed. The people in charge won't let it not be.

Workaccount2 1y ago

Remember that assets rise to counter inflation. So if the market believes there will be inflation, it will naturally rise to counter that. People are trading dollars for shares to shelter from the dollar losing value.

dehrmann 1y ago

Ideally, you'd set your asset allocation some time ago, and you'd mostly be in or out already, with surplus income going in every paycheck (or so). You only sell when you shift your asset allocation or need money for something, and you adjust your allocation (and risk profile) depending on your future needs.

bongodongobob 1y ago

Stop trying to time it. Auto invest weekly/monthly and never look at the balance.

camel_Snake 1y ago

He sounds like the fictional 'Bob' and likely made out like a bandit, assuming he held. https://www.wealthmorning.com/2023/09/15/648774/meet-bob-the-unluckiest-investor-ever/ https://www.wealthmorning.com/2023/09/15/648774/meet-bob-the...

thisisit 1y ago

Apart from the infamous timing the market, there are two adages to keep in mind - the stock market is not the economy and markets can remain irrational for a long time. The whole tariff cycle has been irrational move. The tariffs were supposedly "removed" even when it was not - there was always a 10% default tariff. Maybe everyone is expecting a rate cut due to this tariff madness.