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If software developers wind up replaced by AI, I think it's safe to say every industry's labor will be replaced. Trade jobs won't be far behind, because robotic

If software developers wind up replaced by AI, I think it's safe to say every industry's labor will be replaced. Trade jobs won't be far behind, because robotics will be nipping at their heels. If software falls, everything falls. But as we've seen, these models can't do the job themselves. They're best thought of as an exoskeleton that requires a pilot. They make mistakes, and those mistakes multiply into a mess if a human isn't around. They don't get the big picture, and it's not clear they ever will with the current models and techniques. The only field that has truly been disrupted is graphics design and art. The image and video models are sublime and truly deliver 10,000x speed, cost, and talent reductions. This is probably for three reasons: 1. There's so much straightforward training data 2. The laws of optics and structure seem correspondingly easier than the rules governing intelligence. Simple animals evolved vision hundreds of millions of years ago, and we have all the math and algorithmic implementations already. Not so, for intelligence. 3. Mistakes don't multiply. You can brush up the canvas easily and deliver the job as a smaller work than, say, a 100k LOC program with failure modes.

tombert 1y ago
I think this is making an assumption that the number of potential jobs is fixed. I don't agree with that assumption. I think as people learn how to use these tools then more industries pop up to use those tools. ETA: You updated your post and I think I agree with most of what you said after you updated.
bc569a80a344f9c 1y ago
> If software developers wind up replaced by AI, I think it's safe to say every industry's labor will be replaced. Trade jobs won't be far behind, because robotics will be nipping at their heels. If software falls, everything falls. I don’t think that follows at all. Robotics is notably much, much, much harder than AI/ML. You can replace programmers without robotics. You can’t replace trades without them.
- ares623 1y ago
  There will be millions of meat based robots lining up to flood the market when every knowledge based worker is displaced.
  - esseph 1y ago
    Driving down the value of their labor, but still not competitive enough globally because it's just so much cheaper in other countries for that labor.
    - grumple 1y ago
      A laborer in Asia can't install plumbing in America, install electrical systems in America, etc... We also should end the exploitative nature of globalization. Outsourced work should be held to the same standards as laborers in modern countries (preferably EU, rather than American, standards).
- echelon 1y ago
  > Robotics is notably much, much, much harder than AI/ML. Are you so sure? Almost every animal has solved locomotion, some even with incredibly primitive brains. Evolution knocked this out of the park hundreds of millions of years ago. Drosophila can do it, and we've mapped their brains. Only a few animals have solved reasoning. I'm sure the robotics videos I've seen lately have been cherry picked, but the results are nothing short of astounding. And there are now hundreds of billions of dollars being poured into solving it. I'd wager humans stumble across something evolution had a cake walk with before they stumble across the thing that's only happened once in the known universe.
  - bc569a80a344f9c 1y ago
    Yes, robotics is harder. Here’s some links. Wiki as an intro, and a reasonably entertaining write up that explains the concept in some depth, specifically comparing the issue to LLM progress as of 2024 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moravec%27s_paradox https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moravec%27s_paradox https://harimus.github.io/2024/05/31/motortask.html https://harimus.github.io/2024/05/31/motortask.html Edit: just to specifically address your argument, doing something evolution has optimized for hundreds of millions of years is much harder than something evolution “came up with” very recently (abstract thought).
    - echelon 1y ago
      > Edit: just to specifically address your argument, doing something evolution has optimized for hundreds of millions of years is much harder than something evolution “came up with” very recently (abstract thought). You've got this backwards. If evolution stumbled upon locomotion early -- and several times independently through convergent evolution --, that means it's an easy problem, relatively speaking. We've come up with math and heuristics for robotics (just like vision and optics). We're turning up completely empty for intelligence.
  - Avshalom 1y ago
    Well a large chunk of HN thinks the existing generation of AI is capable of doing 80% of their job, this has not translated at all to robotic stevedores and even less to robotic plumbers so yeah all current evidence supports "Robotics is notably much, much, much harder than AI/ML"
BobbyTables2 1y ago
If AI robots can replace labor, then they’ll figure out humanity only gets in their way.

tombert 1y ago

I think this is making an assumption that the number of potential jobs is fixed. I don't agree with that assumption. I think as people learn how to use these tools then more industries pop up to use those tools. ETA: You updated your post and I think I agree with most of what you said after you updated.

bc569a80a344f9c 1y ago

> If software developers wind up replaced by AI, I think it's safe to say every industry's labor will be replaced. Trade jobs won't be far behind, because robotics will be nipping at their heels. If software falls, everything falls. I don’t think that follows at all. Robotics is notably much, much, much harder than AI/ML. You can replace programmers without robotics. You can’t replace trades without them.

ares623 1y ago
There will be millions of meat based robots lining up to flood the market when every knowledge based worker is displaced.
- esseph 1y ago
  Driving down the value of their labor, but still not competitive enough globally because it's just so much cheaper in other countries for that labor.
  - grumple 1y ago
    A laborer in Asia can't install plumbing in America, install electrical systems in America, etc... We also should end the exploitative nature of globalization. Outsourced work should be held to the same standards as laborers in modern countries (preferably EU, rather than American, standards).
echelon 1y ago
> Robotics is notably much, much, much harder than AI/ML. Are you so sure? Almost every animal has solved locomotion, some even with incredibly primitive brains. Evolution knocked this out of the park hundreds of millions of years ago. Drosophila can do it, and we've mapped their brains. Only a few animals have solved reasoning. I'm sure the robotics videos I've seen lately have been cherry picked, but the results are nothing short of astounding. And there are now hundreds of billions of dollars being poured into solving it. I'd wager humans stumble across something evolution had a cake walk with before they stumble across the thing that's only happened once in the known universe.
- bc569a80a344f9c 1y ago
  Yes, robotics is harder. Here’s some links. Wiki as an intro, and a reasonably entertaining write up that explains the concept in some depth, specifically comparing the issue to LLM progress as of 2024 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moravec%27s_paradox https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moravec%27s_paradox https://harimus.github.io/2024/05/31/motortask.html https://harimus.github.io/2024/05/31/motortask.html Edit: just to specifically address your argument, doing something evolution has optimized for hundreds of millions of years is much harder than something evolution “came up with” very recently (abstract thought).
  - echelon 1y ago
    > Edit: just to specifically address your argument, doing something evolution has optimized for hundreds of millions of years is much harder than something evolution “came up with” very recently (abstract thought). You've got this backwards. If evolution stumbled upon locomotion early -- and several times independently through convergent evolution --, that means it's an easy problem, relatively speaking. We've come up with math and heuristics for robotics (just like vision and optics). We're turning up completely empty for intelligence.
- Avshalom 1y ago
  Well a large chunk of HN thinks the existing generation of AI is capable of doing 80% of their job, this has not translated at all to robotic stevedores and even less to robotic plumbers so yeah all current evidence supports "Robotics is notably much, much, much harder than AI/ML"

BobbyTables2 1y ago

If AI robots can replace labor, then they’ll figure out humanity only gets in their way.