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For junior devs wondering if they picked the right path, remember that the world still needs software, ai still breaks down at even a small bit of complexity, a

For junior devs wondering if they picked the right path, remember that the world still needs software, ai still breaks down at even a small bit of complexity, and the first ones to abandon this career will be those who only did it for money anyways and they’ll do the same once the trades have a rough year (as they always do). In the meantime keep learning and practicing cs fundamentals, ignore hype and build something interesting.

echelon 1y ago
AI coding isn't eating the industry, offshoring is. Inflation, end of ZIRP, and IRS section 174 kicked this off back in 2022 before AI coding was even a thing. Junior devs won't lose jobs to AI. They'll lose jobs to the global market. American software developers have lost the stranglehold on the job market.
- linotype 1y ago
  Section 174 has been restored, thankfully. We’ll see if the damage is done.
  - echelon 1y ago
    Fingers crossed. The interest rate is still a tremendously bad problem. If it had been ZIRP and low interest, companies would have just borrowed to cover the amortization that 174 introduced. But unfortunately money doesn't grow on trees anymore.
cyanydeez 1y ago
Also, morals and ethics are optional!
tombert 1y ago
I think the concern isn't so much about the current state of AI replacing software engineers, but more "what if it keeps getting better at this same rate?" I don't really agree with the reasoning [1], and I don't think we can expect this same rate of progress indefinitely, but I do understand the concern. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox
- echelon 1y ago
  If software developers wind up replaced by AI, I think it's safe to say every industry's labor will be replaced. Trade jobs won't be far behind, because robotics will be nipping at their heels. If software falls, everything falls. But as we've seen, these models can't do the job themselves. They're best thought of as an exoskeleton that requires a pilot. They make mistakes, and those mistakes multiply into a mess if a human isn't around. They don't get the big picture, and it's not clear they ever will with the current models and techniques. The only field that has truly been disrupted is graphics design and art. The image and video models are sublime and truly deliver 10,000x speed, cost, and talent reductions. This is probably for three reasons: 1. There's so much straightforward training data 2. The laws of optics and structure seem correspondingly easier than the rules governing intelligence. Simple animals evolved vision hundreds of millions of years ago, and we have all the math and algorithmic implementations already. Not so, for intelligence. 3. Mistakes don't multiply. You can brush up the canvas easily and deliver the job as a smaller work than, say, a 100k LOC program with failure modes.
  - tombert 1y ago
    I think this is making an assumption that the number of potential jobs is fixed. I don't agree with that assumption. I think as people learn how to use these tools then more industries pop up to use those tools. ETA: You updated your post and I think I agree with most of what you said after you updated.
  - bc569a80a344f9c 1y ago
    > If software developers wind up replaced by AI, I think it's safe to say every industry's labor will be replaced. Trade jobs won't be far behind, because robotics will be nipping at their heels. If software falls, everything falls. I don’t think that follows at all. Robotics is notably much, much, much harder than AI/ML. You can replace programmers without robotics. You can’t replace trades without them.
    - ares623 1y ago
      There will be millions of meat based robots lining up to flood the market when every knowledge based worker is displaced.
RobRivera 1y ago
>ignore hyp and build something interesting AND don't be afraid to start small! Making a discord or twitch chat bot, quake mod, a silly sound board of all ypur favorite Groot quotes.
kragen 1y ago
Nobody has any idea what AI is going to look like five years from now. Five years ago we had GPT-2; AI couldn't code at all. Five years from now AI might still break down at even a small bit of complexity, or it might be installing air conditioners, or it might be colonizing Mercury and putting humans in zoos. Anyone who tells you they know what the future looks like five years from now is lying.
- tmn 1y ago
  There’s a significant difference between predicting what it will specifically look like, and predicting sets of possibilities it won’t look like
  - kragen 1y ago
    No, there isn't. When speaking of logically consistent possibilities, the two problems are precisely isomorphic under Boolean negation.
    - bryanrasmussen 1y ago
      good point, someone recently said > Five years from now AI might still break down at even a small bit of complexity, or it might be installing air conditioners, or it might be colonizing Mercury and putting humans in zoos. do all these seem logically consistent possibilities to you?
      - kragen 1y ago
        Yes, obviously. You presumably don't know what "consistent" means in logic, and your untutored intuition is misleading you into guessing that possibilities like those could conceivably be inconsistent. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consistency https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consistency
        bryanrasmussen 1y ago
        or I just wanted to make sure that you were adamant that the list of those three possibilities were equally probable, to reiterate > AI might still break down at even a small bit of complexity, or it might be installing air conditioners, or it might be colonizing Mercury and putting humans in zoos. that each of these things, being logically consistent, have equal chances of being the case 5 years from now?

echelon 1y ago

AI coding isn't eating the industry, offshoring is. Inflation, end of ZIRP, and IRS section 174 kicked this off back in 2022 before AI coding was even a thing. Junior devs won't lose jobs to AI. They'll lose jobs to the global market. American software developers have lost the stranglehold on the job market.

linotype 1y ago
Section 174 has been restored, thankfully. We’ll see if the damage is done.
- echelon 1y ago
  Fingers crossed. The interest rate is still a tremendously bad problem. If it had been ZIRP and low interest, companies would have just borrowed to cover the amortization that 174 introduced. But unfortunately money doesn't grow on trees anymore.

cyanydeez 1y ago

Also, morals and ethics are optional!

tombert 1y ago

I think the concern isn't so much about the current state of AI replacing software engineers, but more "what if it keeps getting better at this same rate?" I don't really agree with the reasoning [1], and I don't think we can expect this same rate of progress indefinitely, but I do understand the concern. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

echelon 1y ago
If software developers wind up replaced by AI, I think it's safe to say every industry's labor will be replaced. Trade jobs won't be far behind, because robotics will be nipping at their heels. If software falls, everything falls. But as we've seen, these models can't do the job themselves. They're best thought of as an exoskeleton that requires a pilot. They make mistakes, and those mistakes multiply into a mess if a human isn't around. They don't get the big picture, and it's not clear they ever will with the current models and techniques. The only field that has truly been disrupted is graphics design and art. The image and video models are sublime and truly deliver 10,000x speed, cost, and talent reductions. This is probably for three reasons: 1. There's so much straightforward training data 2. The laws of optics and structure seem correspondingly easier than the rules governing intelligence. Simple animals evolved vision hundreds of millions of years ago, and we have all the math and algorithmic implementations already. Not so, for intelligence. 3. Mistakes don't multiply. You can brush up the canvas easily and deliver the job as a smaller work than, say, a 100k LOC program with failure modes.
- tombert 1y ago
  I think this is making an assumption that the number of potential jobs is fixed. I don't agree with that assumption. I think as people learn how to use these tools then more industries pop up to use those tools. ETA: You updated your post and I think I agree with most of what you said after you updated.
- bc569a80a344f9c 1y ago
  > If software developers wind up replaced by AI, I think it's safe to say every industry's labor will be replaced. Trade jobs won't be far behind, because robotics will be nipping at their heels. If software falls, everything falls. I don’t think that follows at all. Robotics is notably much, much, much harder than AI/ML. You can replace programmers without robotics. You can’t replace trades without them.
  - ares623 1y ago
    There will be millions of meat based robots lining up to flood the market when every knowledge based worker is displaced.

RobRivera 1y ago

>ignore hyp and build something interesting AND don't be afraid to start small! Making a discord or twitch chat bot, quake mod, a silly sound board of all ypur favorite Groot quotes.

kragen 1y ago

Nobody has any idea what AI is going to look like five years from now. Five years ago we had GPT-2; AI couldn't code at all. Five years from now AI might still break down at even a small bit of complexity, or it might be installing air conditioners, or it might be colonizing Mercury and putting humans in zoos. Anyone who tells you they know what the future looks like five years from now is lying.

tmn 1y ago
There’s a significant difference between predicting what it will specifically look like, and predicting sets of possibilities it won’t look like
- kragen 1y ago
  No, there isn't. When speaking of logically consistent possibilities, the two problems are precisely isomorphic under Boolean negation.
  - bryanrasmussen 1y ago
    good point, someone recently said > Five years from now AI might still break down at even a small bit of complexity, or it might be installing air conditioners, or it might be colonizing Mercury and putting humans in zoos. do all these seem logically consistent possibilities to you?
    - kragen 1y ago
      Yes, obviously. You presumably don't know what "consistent" means in logic, and your untutored intuition is misleading you into guessing that possibilities like those could conceivably be inconsistent. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consistency https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consistency
      - bryanrasmussen 1y ago
        or I just wanted to make sure that you were adamant that the list of those three possibilities were equally probable, to reiterate > AI might still break down at even a small bit of complexity, or it might be installing air conditioners, or it might be colonizing Mercury and putting humans in zoos. that each of these things, being logically consistent, have equal chances of being the case 5 years from now?