10 ms·
In NYC, for the first 6 months of 2025, 994 new private sector jobs were created [1]. During the same period last year, there were 66,000 new jobs created. Hi
by lazarus01 1y ago
In NYC, for the first 6 months of 2025, 994 new private sector jobs were created [1]. During the same period last year, there were 66,000 new jobs created.
Higher cost of doing business from tariffs has frozen hiring. With a frozen job market, there’s less revenue coming in.
NYC is a leading indicator for the rest of the country.
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/13/nyregion/nyc-jobs.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/13/nyregion/nyc-jobs.html
- macintux 1y agoI’m curious whether it’s more the tariffs, or the uncertainty. No one knows what will happen on a day-to-day basis: the chaotic (and illegal) decision-making leaves everyone wondering what’s next.
- YZF 1y agoThe hiring slowdown predates tariffs. For various reasons CEOs either believe they can do more with less people, or that they can hire cheaper people in other geographies, or both. Businesses (tech or financials) don't seem to be telegraphing uncertainty, S&P 500 revenue is at all times high and trending up, earnings/profit all time highs and trending up, valuations all times high and trending up.
- vkou 1y ago> The hiring slowdown predates tariffs. That's true, but it didn't predate the election of a man who has made his understanding of tariffs and economics crystal clear in the months and years leading up to January 2025.
- mattmaroon 1y agoThe tariffs this time are far in excess of anything he did previously or promised to do while running for office again and took nearly everyone by surprise though.
- denismi 1y agoThis pre-election BBC summary - https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy343z53l1o https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy343z53l1o - pretty clearly spells out what has eventuated, describing it as a "central campaign pledge": > Trump has made tariffs a central campaign pledge in order to protect US industry. He has proposed new 10-20% tariffs on most imported foreign goods, and much higher ones on those from China.
- trebligdivad 1y agoI don't think there's that much surprise at the tariffs on China; it's the tariffs on the rest of the world, especially friendly countries like Canada that are the big surprises. Also, who believes politicians campaign pledges?
- thunderfork 1y ago[dead]
- burnerthrow008 1y ago> Also, who believes politicians campaign pledges? Only all the people who voted for them and all the people who voted against them?
- rusk 1y agoUS elections have a shockingly low turnout compared to other countries so not the affirmative you were hoping for
- dgfitz 1y agoMaybe if Harris had made a few she would have won…
- const_cast 1y agoShe did, everyone just sort of... pretended she didn't. So they could have plausible deniability for voting for Trump. See also: Harris is an elite! (Trump is more elite), Trump knows business (he's a pretty bad business man), Harris did nothing in office! (She was VP), Trump is the underdog! (He's literally already been president)
- mattmaroon 1y agoThere are other options, it’s not that simple. They may foresee an economic slowdown (they certainly say they do at every opportunity), they feel they are currently overstaffed, the ETF and hedge fund managers who own most of their stock are pressuring them to save money because they don’t like what they’re reading in the tea leaves, etc.
- epistasis 1y agoThat was the entire point of hiking interest rates, to slow down the economy and stop inflation. Tariffs are universally acknowledged to cause inflation, and we would be in a recovery path if it weren't for the delays that tariffs are causing right now. It is rather interesting to see the difference in standards of accountability for different presidents. Some are responsible for the economy even if its behavior is not sure to their actions. Others are not responsible for poor economic performance even when taking actions universally agreed to harm the economy.
- jibal 1y agoLet's be clear on who has these different standards: primarily Republicans, members of the party whose lifeblood is hypocrisy.
- blurbleblurble 1y agoThey sold us out in the name of holy apocalyptic chaos and destruction
- gdilla 1y agoAll they had to do was prey on fragile white grievances, and it worked.
- jibal 1y ago"If you can convince the lowest white man he's better than the best colored man, he won't notice you're picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he'll empty his pockets for you." -- LBJ
- Der_Einzige 1y agoRemember what straws they had to grasp at to critique obama? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barack_Obama_tan_suit_controversy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barack_Obama_tan_suit_controve...
- NooneAtAll3 1y agoS&P 500 or S&P 10, tho?
- jaynate 1y agoNearly 10% of the s&p 500 value is one company- nvidia. The mag 7 make up a significant portion. Prosperity isn’t distributed, it’s concentrated and the stock market is not even close to the only measure of the health of the American economy.
- cyanydeez 1y agoMarket bubbles combined with parallel political bubbles are probably the real black swan event coming down the pike
- stirfish 1y agoWhat is a political bubble? I googled it, but I'm getting definitions closer to "my news feed only shows me what I want to see"
- Yizahi 1y agoIf I had to guess - "political bubble (bursts)" is when an extremely incompetent and/or radical politician suddenly is elected to one of the top posts in a country. So it's like a closed off boiling pot - incompetent radical has 5% of the electoral base and nothing happens, then 10%, then 20%, 30%, 40%, still nothing, and then one day he "suddenly" crosses 50% threshold and bubble bursts, he is now in charge for real. For example in France their own Le-Trump aka Marine Le Pen had 41% votes last election cycle, so nothing really happened and system centrists won again, politics remained moderate and predictable. But if she or her ideological successor even takes 50%... hooboy, EU will see some Orbanification just like USA does today.
- cyanydeez 1y agoStart with the idea of political capital and end with the monumental loss of value and trust in the political system
- PeterStuer 1y agoIt is more the volatility for sure. Tarrifs have existed forever and business has always coped with them.
- pstuart 1y agoThis is different -- the tariffs are being applied and changed chaotically, with no direction on actually serving the point of protecting native industry. The goal of the tariffs is to replace income tax, everything else is a smokescreen. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/22/trump-tariffs-replace-income-tax.html https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/22/trump-tariffs-replace-income...
- whatevaa 1y agoThey didn't change monthly.
- ldoughty 1y agoYou can't write a business plans/proposals and get loans/management approval on these kinds of tariffs. Imagine trying to get a loan from a bank to make a USA manufacturing plant, pointing to the 150% Chinese tariff. A week later the tariff is 25%. Does your math still work? Probably not. Will that bank continue the loan? Nope. Will the bank even entertain a similar proposal from someone else right now? Nope. If you want to grow USA manufacturing you need to subsidize it, or give private industry confidence it's not going to lose them money. If you can't do that, your relying on charity / non-profit / philanthropy... And I don't see many of those in manufacturing.
- infecto 1y agoI would say more about general uncertainty than volatility but similar thought. Disagree on the reason though, tariffs like we are experiencing have not been in our existence for a couple generations. And especially not in the modern connected global market. I don’t believe most if not all of us have experienced such an immature and erratic administration. We are taxing trade partners, flip flopping on rules and nobody knows what to make of it.
- nnurmanov 1y agoI live in such country, local currency volatile, laws are changing. There is no long term planning, projects should span 1-2 years and if they bring income, then you are lucky. In long term the situation is no good
- motbus3 1y agoMy guess is just, well, a guess, but the real impact of tariffs will take some time to hit. For now it is a turbulence of the uncertainty, but as people understand how to work on this situation we'll see numbers getting more stable. My second guess is that inflation will grow as other markets will learn to deal with the situation. It is taking some time, but other economic blocks might make strong moves altogether causing at least a bruise in the metrics. Also we need to remember that the guy responsible for the numbers was fired for allegedly political reason and that could have been political and no one will ever be sure. So how can one trust the numbers in that situation? It has been... Weird
- timr 1y agoEven assuming that there were no other federal, state or local YoY differences [1] that could explain this change (and that the numbers are right as presented in the first place), New York City private sector employment is nothing like most other parts of the US: it's the largest city in the US by a large margin, it has a concentration of employment in a few major industries (finance, fashion, publishing, software) that aren't represented elsewhere, and...it hasn't been a manufacturing center since the victorian era. You can't wave this away with "NYC is a leading indicator for the US economy". To the extent that it's true at all, you could say it about any large city in the US. [1] Like, say: interest rates, the business cycle, AI, the slowdown in software hiring, or the minimum wage increase that NYC implemented on January 1, 2025.
- fn-mote 1y agoThis dismissal of a massive drop in hiring (literally 1.5% of the previous half year’s reported hiring) is wishful thinking. “Ignore this data point, NYC is special.” Color me skeptical.
- apical_dendrite 1y agoIt's true that NYC private sector employment is different from the US labor market as a whole, but NYC private sector employment is better representative of what readers of this site care about than overall US employment. Readers are much more likely to be affected by changes in the professional services and information sectors than, say, agriculture.
- bitshiftfaced 1y agoLooking at total private jobs over time, growth slowed after the post covid bump, but 2025 doesn't look all that different from 2024: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU36935610500000001SA# https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU36935610500000001SA#
- JumpCrisscross 1y agoBoth the NYC Employment Data the New York Times cites [1] and these Fed data [2] are seasonally adjusted. Would take them with a shaker of salt given the assumptions in those adjustment models are likely currently under assault. (Hehe.) [1] https://www.nyc.gov/assets/omb/downloads/pdf/sa-methodology-v3.pdf https://www.nyc.gov/assets/omb/downloads/pdf/sa-methodology-... [2] https://www.census.gov/data/software/x13as.html https://www.census.gov/data/software/x13as.html
- JumpCrisscross 1y agoWould note that the data the New York Times cited are seasonally adjusted [1]. The assumptions of those adjustment models may not currently apply. It’s going to be difficult to suss out a signal from employment data until October or November, by when we should have about half a year of post-tariff data [2] to compare with ‘24. (We may not know anything surely for a year.) [1] https://www.nyc.gov/assets/omb/downloads/pdf/sa-methodology-v3.pdf https://www.nyc.gov/assets/omb/downloads/pdf/sa-methodology-... [2] https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2025/trumps-tariff-revenue-tracker-how-much-us-collecting-which-imports-are https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2025/trumps-tariff...
- monero-xmr 1y ago[flagged]
- jameshart 1y agoWhatever mayor they're 'under threat of' can't be much worse than the one who's currently in place who is under threat of indictment from the federal government over bribery, fraud, and illegal foreign finance contributions, who has has eight of his staff resign in the last year under federal investigations, and lost multiple other staff resigning on principle. People are already acting like Mamdani is responsible for everything that happens in NYC; they should pay more attention to the guy who's been in charge the past 3 years.
- tombert 1y agoWeren't the charges against Eric Adams dismissed with prejudice? [1] They shouldn't have been dismissed at all, but the judge didn't want the president to be able to directly control the major of NYC. I personally think he should at least be impeached because I have the woke liberal opinion that people in power taking bribes is bad. [1] https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/mayor-eric-adams-case-dismissed-prejudice-despite-trump/story?id=120410419 https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/mayor-eric-adams-case-dismis...
- righthand 1y ago
- mupuff1234 1y agoAnd yet the rent in NYC just seems to go up and up.
- hunglee2 1y agorental prices are driven by P/E redirecting funds to the purchase of housing stock, which they then use to jack up the rent. Fuedalism is returning by stealth.
- hdgvhicv 1y agoIf there’s demand for 5 million units and supply of 6 million prices will go down as 1 million units will be empty If there’s demand for 5 million units and supply of 4 million, prices will go up and 1 million will move out of the city
- georgemcbay 1y agoYou conveniently left out the part where many large corporate landlords collude by using software like RealPage to enable widescale price fixing.
- hdgvhicv 1y agoAs do small landlords. they can only do this because supply is so constrained.
- beowulfey 1y agothat is also assuming the demand is atomic when that isn't necessarily the case. A lot of that pooled demand can come from singular sources. in other words, not all demand is created equal
- ipaddr 1y agoIn your first case they increase rent as a group and have 80+% occupancy. In your second case they increase rent and people are forced into having roommates.
- andy_ppp 1y agoDon’t worry, Trump can just keep firing the people who make the statistics until he’s proven right :-/
- phkahler 1y agoThat has me shaking my head. He fired the BLS person claiming they were reporting inaccurate stats to make him look bad. A claim of partisan bias - could maybe be some truth to that. But to fire them and replace them? Then it will certainly be biased reporting. I suppose that makes sense if all you care about is image and not actually making things better.
- fundad 1y agoI question the president’s cognitive state if he openly stated there would be some “pain” and then when the statistics show he was correct, he attacks the BLA director and claims the economy is booming. The president and his defenders are playing us when they appear to want a growing economy. They don’t.
- mathiaspoint 1y agoShe had been doing crap job going back to Biden. I don't think she was fired for optics.
- ipaddr 1y ago
- RhysU 1y agoI do not trust NY job numbers. Their unemployment system remains a disaster from the Covid years. Source: Me trying to use it and encountering prior fraud. Light reading suggests many have experienced it.
- margalabargala 1y agoShouldn't that be roughly constant across the year though? We don't need to trust the numbers to be exact, to observe a precipitous drop.
- RhysU 1y agoShould fraud rates in public taxpayer-funded systems stay constant or go down over time, assuming no new fraud type is invented?
- margalabargala 1y agoDepends what if anything is being done to combat it. One of the following is true: - The numbers somewhat-accurately reflect the trend of employment - Fraud levels were reduced 66x in one year If it was the second one, that's a sufficiently massive reduction that news stories would be written about it. There would be stories about this great victory over fraud. A quick search showed no particular anti-fraud measures or claims of effectiveness unique to that time period.
- anecdatas 1y agoNormally I'd be quippy about the plural of anecdote not being "data", but this isn't even plural. This is a single anecdote. The claim you have made is "I have encountered fraud, personally, so the system is a disaster." Well run systems experience fraud. It's something you generally want to minimize, but like, it's not necessarily an indicator that the system is broken. Like... AWS has tons of fraud. AWS is still very much not a disaster. (Well, it kind of is a disaster, but mostly because it's a machine that chews up humans via oncall, which is unrelated to their fraud.)
- neuroelectron 1y agoReal jobs or government jobs?
- PeterStuer 1y agoIf you are looking at tarrifs to explain NY small business market collapse, you clearly have not followed Louis Rossmann's struggles to keep his business in NY over the years. https://youtube.com/@rossmanngroup https://youtube.com/@rossmanngroup
- yubblegum 1y agoNew York is teeming with what appear to be newly arrived "immigrants" who do no speak a word of English (and frankly are rather aggressive about their refusal to do so) yet are employed in various crafts. We had fairly substantial renovation recently in our building. Every single worker was clearly a recent arrival. How do we know how many jobs were actually created if so many of them are not "officially recorded"? (I am an immigrant myself (via the legal means) lest you take my observation as a xenophobic expression.)
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- the_gastropod 1y agoThe U.S. has no official language, and no one who moves here is required to learn English. Especially in NYC, where so many neighborhoods predominantly speak a language that is not English (Brighton Beach, Sunset Park, Flushing, Chinatown, etc.) Assuming someone speaking another language is both a “recent arrival” and working illegally is… something. Apparently it’s not xenophobic, but it’s not a good look.
- dboreham 1y agoThere are communities of non-English speaking people here in Montana. They speak a form of German. Hutterites (kind of like Amish).
- yubblegum 1y agoDoes the New York Times (which is a national paper) have a section in German language? Does it have one in any other non-English language besides Spanish? Why is Spanish singled out? Why was "bilingualism" being promoted so heavily? Meaning no offense, wtf has the Spanish speaking community contributed to American history to get this special perch? So yeah, there are all sorts of little pockets here and there, and grandpas and grandmas of various flavor speaking the old country's tongue but only one was promoted. The phenomena is obviously political in nature and to construe is as anything else, including "prejudice" or "xenophobia", is disengenuous.
- msgodel 1y agoIt looks to me like we hit the end of the debt cycle. The market was predicting this by the end of the fall last year before Trump was even elected. I don't think not doing tariffs would have had much of an effect.
- gcanyon 1y agoI know that this is the result of summing a much larger gain + a slightly smaller loss, but it's weird reading this number in isolation and knowing that my company is responsible for roughly 5% of this gain.
- gcanyon 1y agoThis is, in some sense, exactly what Trump wants -- to hurt the cities/liberal regions that oppose him. It's going to be a bumpy ride.
- const_cast 1y agoThe problem is those liberal cities and regions pretty much prop up the entire US economy. When you look at GDP, it's coming from California, NYC, etc. Even in red states, like Texas, it's Dallas and Austin carrying everyone else.