4 ms·

So more middlemen to make the cunsumer pay even more, joy.

jameslk 1y ago
Consumers will pay more regardless in this type of circumstance. But they will pay less if businesses don’t suddenly start going out of business, eliminating competition and jobs
- Braxton1980 1y ago
  Doesn't insurance normally work by protecting rare instances whose cost is amortized over the base? This would be a claim by a large amount of insurance clients at once
  - deleted 1y ago
    [deleted]
  - jameslk 1y ago
    A sudden claim against many should be priced into the cost of the insurance, offset by some risk adjustment. The goal is ultimately price stability, if the price is not too high (that’s the unknown)
    - lazide 1y ago
      Insurance tends to do really badly in ‘black swan’ type situations. Which pretty much are what Trump is doing.
      - jameslk 1y ago
        Isn’t the point of insurance to provide protection against black swan events? If it’s more likely to happen then it’s not really a black swan?
        lazide 1y ago
        No [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory]. It’s the difference between getting cancer (calculable, but perhaps not high probability), and getting hit by a meteorite (not actually calculable, very severe consequence).
        adgjlsfhk1 1y ago
        insurance is best for individually unlikely but societally likely items. otherwise pricing it is really hard.
        hdgvhicv 1y ago
        Fire burns your house down, insurance is easy. Asteroid hits New York, insurance won’t pay out.
        lazide 1y ago
        Or in many of these scenarios, can’t pay out, because they’re bankrupt. The biggest issue with black swan events (in the proper usage) is everyone is screwed because no one saw it coming and/or it’s so widespread no one can do anything about it for individuals.
  - JumpCrisscross 1y ago
    > would be a claim by a large amount of insurance clients at once You’d insure against a specific product from a specific country being hit with a tariff. Tariffs are going up and down, sometimes in a way that may as well be random. (India not recommending Trump for a Nobel prize.) On its face, this doesn’t seem uninsurable.

Consumers will pay more regardless in this type of circumstance. But they will pay less if businesses don’t suddenly start going out of business, eliminating competition and jobs

Braxton1980 1y ago
Doesn't insurance normally work by protecting rare instances whose cost is amortized over the base? This would be a claim by a large amount of insurance clients at once
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
- jameslk 1y ago
  A sudden claim against many should be priced into the cost of the insurance, offset by some risk adjustment. The goal is ultimately price stability, if the price is not too high (that’s the unknown)
  - lazide 1y ago
    Insurance tends to do really badly in ‘black swan’ type situations. Which pretty much are what Trump is doing.
    - jameslk 1y ago
      Isn’t the point of insurance to provide protection against black swan events? If it’s more likely to happen then it’s not really a black swan?
      - lazide 1y ago
        No [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory]. It’s the difference between getting cancer (calculable, but perhaps not high probability), and getting hit by a meteorite (not actually calculable, very severe consequence).
      - adgjlsfhk1 1y ago
        insurance is best for individually unlikely but societally likely items. otherwise pricing it is really hard.
        hdgvhicv 1y ago
        Fire burns your house down, insurance is easy. Asteroid hits New York, insurance won’t pay out.
        lazide 1y ago
        Or in many of these scenarios, can’t pay out, because they’re bankrupt. The biggest issue with black swan events (in the proper usage) is everyone is screwed because no one saw it coming and/or it’s so widespread no one can do anything about it for individuals.
- JumpCrisscross 1y ago
  > would be a claim by a large amount of insurance clients at once You’d insure against a specific product from a specific country being hit with a tariff. Tariffs are going up and down, sometimes in a way that may as well be random. (India not recommending Trump for a Nobel prize.) On its face, this doesn’t seem uninsurable.