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Amazing how high expectations were that a 56% jump in sales still led to a 3% drop in the stock. It's very clear that the ramp for GPUs continues.

Drunkfoowl 1y ago
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Ologn 1y ago
NVDA had a surprise earnings on May 24, 2023, closing at $305 and opening at $385 (before the 10 for 1 split). Pretty much every earnings day since then has been the same - the numbers come out, they beat what they estimated, the stock goes down a little. People have been doom and glooming it every earnings call - you can read the threads here from May 2023, people were saying it was a bubble then, and it's over four times what it was then.
- DonsDiscountGas 1y ago
  Up 4x in 2 years seems like an indication it is a bubble, not the opposite. There's really no way of knowing when a bubble is going to pop, there's no reason an overvalued stock can't become even more overvalued.
  - utyop22 1y ago
    I think we need to first straighten out the terms. What really is a bubble? In my view, if we want to get strict with this, a bubble is really an enlargement in asset prices that is not backed by fundamentals. Now as it stands, Nvidia's recent growth has been to date backed by fundamentals due to increases in free cash flows. However, its market capitalization is based upon the fact that demand for what they produce continues to rise notwithstanding competition. The problem is, Nvidia's customers who are responsible for their revenue growth are not seeing meaningful ROI and how steep will the barriers to entry remain? Its questionable if Nvidia can maintain existing barriers to entry (let alone making those barriers any steeper) to sustain the market power it enjoys over a long time horizon to justify its present value. Therein lies the problem with Nvidia's valuation. There is also no evidence that shows Nvidia's projects have real options embedded within them. Now of course, lets get real - who is really doing this level of analysis? Very few, and we are seeing this play out with jumps in the stock price with no tangible justification.
ivape 1y ago
It’s the top valued company so its floor is being #1 ($1 ahead of #2). That’s what the market is saying. No one is able to tell its real value because comparatively there is nothing beyond it. The market is only saying that it’s at the very least $1 more than #2. As unreal as it sounds, it could truly be worth trillions more, it’s just that the market is unwilling to say so atm. There’s nothing normal going on because almost any stock you ever looked at is surrounded by hundreds of other stocks to compare to. People missed this stock pre-split, then at 90, 120, 140 … And they will miss it again.
xenobeb 1y ago
It is not a matter of expectations but how much of the growth is already priced in.

Drunkfoowl 1y ago

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Ologn 1y ago

NVDA had a surprise earnings on May 24, 2023, closing at $305 and opening at $385 (before the 10 for 1 split). Pretty much every earnings day since then has been the same - the numbers come out, they beat what they estimated, the stock goes down a little. People have been doom and glooming it every earnings call - you can read the threads here from May 2023, people were saying it was a bubble then, and it's over four times what it was then.

DonsDiscountGas 1y ago
Up 4x in 2 years seems like an indication it is a bubble, not the opposite. There's really no way of knowing when a bubble is going to pop, there's no reason an overvalued stock can't become even more overvalued.
- utyop22 1y ago
  I think we need to first straighten out the terms. What really is a bubble? In my view, if we want to get strict with this, a bubble is really an enlargement in asset prices that is not backed by fundamentals. Now as it stands, Nvidia's recent growth has been to date backed by fundamentals due to increases in free cash flows. However, its market capitalization is based upon the fact that demand for what they produce continues to rise notwithstanding competition. The problem is, Nvidia's customers who are responsible for their revenue growth are not seeing meaningful ROI and how steep will the barriers to entry remain? Its questionable if Nvidia can maintain existing barriers to entry (let alone making those barriers any steeper) to sustain the market power it enjoys over a long time horizon to justify its present value. Therein lies the problem with Nvidia's valuation. There is also no evidence that shows Nvidia's projects have real options embedded within them. Now of course, lets get real - who is really doing this level of analysis? Very few, and we are seeing this play out with jumps in the stock price with no tangible justification.

ivape 1y ago

It’s the top valued company so its floor is being #1 ($1 ahead of #2). That’s what the market is saying. No one is able to tell its real value because comparatively there is nothing beyond it. The market is only saying that it’s at the very least $1 more than #2. As unreal as it sounds, it could truly be worth trillions more, it’s just that the market is unwilling to say so atm. There’s nothing normal going on because almost any stock you ever looked at is surrounded by hundreds of other stocks to compare to. People missed this stock pre-split, then at 90, 120, 140 … And they will miss it again.

xenobeb 1y ago

It is not a matter of expectations but how much of the growth is already priced in.