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Well your father can't buy a Waymo. Even if he could it wouldn't go very far, wouldn't work everywhere and would cost at least 2x a model 3 or Y. So there are a

Well your father can't buy a Waymo. Even if he could it wouldn't go very far, wouldn't work everywhere and would cost at least 2x a model 3 or Y. So there are at least several leads Tesla has. It's a horrible comparison. Why do people keep making it? This isn't Lyft vs Uber. A better comparison to Tesla FSD would be blue cruise, super cruise, drive pilot, god's eye, and every other consumer level 2 ADAS.

arnaudsm 1y ago
I was comparing Robotaxis with Waymo in Texas. If you want to compare Teslas with consumer cars, the best metric we have is the fatality rate per mile. Tesla is #1.
- tass 1y ago
  This metric says nothing about self driving capabilities. In fact, I'd argue that FSD supervising the driver (and doing things like limiting speed before corners) would make their cars safer. To me this metric shows that their cars are very high performing, and for most drivers they're probably the fastest accelerating cars they've ever driven. Tesla should probably default them to 'chill' mode and provide a warning about how fast the car is when you switch out of that mode.
  - michaelmrose 1y ago
    It is fantastically optimistic to attribute Teslas horrific stats to the cars being speedy For instance the model y had a fatality rate of 10.6 per billion vehicle miles 4x the average. Its also seems unreasonable to suppose that they are poorly suited to survive a crash as this doesn't seem to be indicated. A more logical conclusion is that a box with a giant flashing distracting tablet in the center which lies and says it can drive itself gets crashed more because people are functionally incapable of going from passenger to driver at random intervals with no notice.
    - riehwvfbk 1y ago
      Teslas also tend to attract people who hate driving and are bad at it. Yes, this is anecdotal, but - several friends and acquaintances said something along the lines of "my Tesla is the best, self-driving helps so much, I hate driving and I can't wait for them to fully automate it". I wonder if segregating bad drivers into a separate population affects those fatality statistics.
      - michaelmrose 1y ago
        When a car across all users has more deaths one should simply assume it is less safe. Nobody makes these bullshit excuses for any other car.
- goosejuice 1y ago
  I see that and it's a horrible comparison. Tesla's robotaxi is a consumer car, taxi isn't their singular focus. If it was, FSD design would have taken a different path.
jacobolus 1y ago
The premise of Tesla's current market value is that they will capture a majority share of a dramatically expanded global taxi market. Waymo being dramatically ahead at producing workable robotaxis entirely undercuts that premise. If you instead think Tesla's promise is consumer cars, Tesla's valuation is roughly equal to the entire rest of the global auto industry, despite being only a tiny and declining fraction of global sales. The relevant competitors then are Toyota, VW, Ford, BYD, etc. etc. Objectively, as a consumer auto company Tesla seems to be stagnant and falling behind. I guess they're also hyping vaporware humanoid robots; if you ask me a future where a significant proportion of all families on earth purchase a humanoid robot seems completely implausible. It's very Jetsons though. Maybe they'll start building flying cars too.
- umbra07 1y ago
  Okay that's not what ordinary people like GP's dad are envisioning. Normal people are envisioning either: "wow I can buy a Tesla and it can drive me around!!" or a macroview "wow in the future Elon Musk is going to make self-driving cars so good that nobody will have to drive!". We are discussing "normal people thoughts", not market sentiment.
  - mlinhares 1y ago
    It’s the usual “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent", as much as the fundamentals do not work he has captured the average investor and general narrative that something really huge would have to happen to take him down. I really don’t see anything that will cut through the narrative now.
cncjchsue7 1y ago
Why? Ideological capture. I thought that was obvious. TDS/MDS.
breve 1y ago
> It's a horrible comparison. Why do people keep making it? Because Tesla keeps claiming they'll have full autonomy "next year", year after year. In 2016 Tesla claimed every Tesla car being produced had "the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver". That was a lie: https://web.archive.org/web/20161020091022/https://tesla.com/blog/all-tesla-cars-being-produced-now-have-full-self-driving-hardware https://web.archive.org/web/20161020091022/https://tesla.com... By the end of 2020 there were supposed to be 1 million Tesla robotaxis on the road. That was also a lie: https://www.thedrive.com/news/38129/elon-musk-promised-1-million-tesla-robotaxis-by-the-end-of-2020-where-are-they https://www.thedrive.com/news/38129/elon-musk-promised-1-mil... Tesla sets its own benchmark and consistently fails to achieve it.
- goosejuice 1y ago
  Yes, I've heard this time and time again. It has nothing to do with the point I'm making. This is just stoking the flamewar. If you want to compare Waymo and Tesla FSD from a technology standpoint and claim superiority of one over the other you can't use simple values like interventions per mile. It says very little. The solutions were designed for different purposes under different constraints. That's what engineers do. If Waymo was attempting to make consumer viable self driving vehicles they would have made very different decisions and likewise for Tesla if their only goal was taxi. That should be obvious to any technologist.
  - hobs 1y ago
    You started with "Why is anyone..." and you got your answer - the founder and promoter of the technology has been on record lying about it multiple times. There's lawsuits about it. Steelmanning Tesla's position makes no sense here.
    - goosejuice 1y ago
      I did not get a rational answer. If you're building a cheap mass market self driving vehicle that has to work everywhere you'll make completely different design decisions than a geo restricted taxi. Would you care to acknowledge that simple fact? The amount of hypotheticals you'd have to go through to compare these technologies in superiority up to this point is extensive. Go ahead, do the thought experiment. It would be a lot more interesting than a blanket interventions per mile with zero context. Otherwise it's a false equivalence dog pile in search of Internet points. We don't need repeating of exhaustingly well known qualities of Tesla's CEO. That's not interesting, the Internet is already overrun with that.
fragmede 1y ago
Also comma.ai.
Veserv 1y ago
Well because Elon Musk keeps making it. In January 2023, on the official Tesla earnings call, he said that FSD was currently overwhelmingly superior at autonomous driving than everything else in existence: "So who do we think is close to Tesla with -- a general solution for self-driving? And we still don't even know really who would even be a distant second. So yes, it really seems like we're -- I mean, right now, I don't think you could see a second place with a telescope, at least we can't." [1] That is a literal, direct, backward-looking statement about current capabilities comparing it to all existing systems. A backward-looking statement that is clearly and objectively false given their present day inability to safely deploy driverless vehicles which Waymo already achieved in 2022, let alone quantitative disengagement metrics demonstrating a level of capability between 10-100x worse than Waymo contemporaneously in 2022 [2] and inferior even to Waymo in 2015 [3]. A false statement made willingly and knowingly in official investor communications to maintain their stock price. [1] https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2023/01/26/tesla-tsla-q4-2022-earnings-call-transcript/ https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2023/01/26/te... [2] https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2023/02/17/2022-disengagement-report-from-california/ https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2023/02/17/2022-disen... [3] https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2018/02/01/disengagement-report-2017-the-good-the-bad-the-ugly/ https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2018/02/01/disengagem...
- goosejuice 1y ago
  So a person who most of us strongly despise makes you throw out all rational thought and make false equivalence arguments about these autonomous systems? Everything doesn't have to be about Elon. Imagine you replaced him in 2015, but still approached autonomy through mass market level 2. How would you compare them? I think you might add just a few caveats about the constraints and environments they operate in.

arnaudsm 1y ago

I was comparing Robotaxis with Waymo in Texas. If you want to compare Teslas with consumer cars, the best metric we have is the fatality rate per mile. Tesla is #1.

tass 1y ago
This metric says nothing about self driving capabilities. In fact, I'd argue that FSD supervising the driver (and doing things like limiting speed before corners) would make their cars safer. To me this metric shows that their cars are very high performing, and for most drivers they're probably the fastest accelerating cars they've ever driven. Tesla should probably default them to 'chill' mode and provide a warning about how fast the car is when you switch out of that mode.
- michaelmrose 1y ago
  It is fantastically optimistic to attribute Teslas horrific stats to the cars being speedy For instance the model y had a fatality rate of 10.6 per billion vehicle miles 4x the average. Its also seems unreasonable to suppose that they are poorly suited to survive a crash as this doesn't seem to be indicated. A more logical conclusion is that a box with a giant flashing distracting tablet in the center which lies and says it can drive itself gets crashed more because people are functionally incapable of going from passenger to driver at random intervals with no notice.
  - riehwvfbk 1y ago
    Teslas also tend to attract people who hate driving and are bad at it. Yes, this is anecdotal, but - several friends and acquaintances said something along the lines of "my Tesla is the best, self-driving helps so much, I hate driving and I can't wait for them to fully automate it". I wonder if segregating bad drivers into a separate population affects those fatality statistics.
    - michaelmrose 1y ago
      When a car across all users has more deaths one should simply assume it is less safe. Nobody makes these bullshit excuses for any other car.
goosejuice 1y ago
I see that and it's a horrible comparison. Tesla's robotaxi is a consumer car, taxi isn't their singular focus. If it was, FSD design would have taken a different path.

jacobolus 1y ago

The premise of Tesla's current market value is that they will capture a majority share of a dramatically expanded global taxi market. Waymo being dramatically ahead at producing workable robotaxis entirely undercuts that premise. If you instead think Tesla's promise is consumer cars, Tesla's valuation is roughly equal to the entire rest of the global auto industry, despite being only a tiny and declining fraction of global sales. The relevant competitors then are Toyota, VW, Ford, BYD, etc. etc. Objectively, as a consumer auto company Tesla seems to be stagnant and falling behind. I guess they're also hyping vaporware humanoid robots; if you ask me a future where a significant proportion of all families on earth purchase a humanoid robot seems completely implausible. It's very Jetsons though. Maybe they'll start building flying cars too.

umbra07 1y ago
Okay that's not what ordinary people like GP's dad are envisioning. Normal people are envisioning either: "wow I can buy a Tesla and it can drive me around!!" or a macroview "wow in the future Elon Musk is going to make self-driving cars so good that nobody will have to drive!". We are discussing "normal people thoughts", not market sentiment.
- mlinhares 1y ago
  It’s the usual “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent", as much as the fundamentals do not work he has captured the average investor and general narrative that something really huge would have to happen to take him down. I really don’t see anything that will cut through the narrative now.

cncjchsue7 1y ago

Why? Ideological capture. I thought that was obvious. TDS/MDS.

breve 1y ago

> It's a horrible comparison. Why do people keep making it? Because Tesla keeps claiming they'll have full autonomy "next year", year after year. In 2016 Tesla claimed every Tesla car being produced had "the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver". That was a lie: https://web.archive.org/web/20161020091022/https://tesla.com/blog/all-tesla-cars-being-produced-now-have-full-self-driving-hardware https://web.archive.org/web/20161020091022/https://tesla.com... By the end of 2020 there were supposed to be 1 million Tesla robotaxis on the road. That was also a lie: https://www.thedrive.com/news/38129/elon-musk-promised-1-million-tesla-robotaxis-by-the-end-of-2020-where-are-they https://www.thedrive.com/news/38129/elon-musk-promised-1-mil... Tesla sets its own benchmark and consistently fails to achieve it.

goosejuice 1y ago
Yes, I've heard this time and time again. It has nothing to do with the point I'm making. This is just stoking the flamewar. If you want to compare Waymo and Tesla FSD from a technology standpoint and claim superiority of one over the other you can't use simple values like interventions per mile. It says very little. The solutions were designed for different purposes under different constraints. That's what engineers do. If Waymo was attempting to make consumer viable self driving vehicles they would have made very different decisions and likewise for Tesla if their only goal was taxi. That should be obvious to any technologist.
- hobs 1y ago
  You started with "Why is anyone..." and you got your answer - the founder and promoter of the technology has been on record lying about it multiple times. There's lawsuits about it. Steelmanning Tesla's position makes no sense here.
  - goosejuice 1y ago
    I did not get a rational answer. If you're building a cheap mass market self driving vehicle that has to work everywhere you'll make completely different design decisions than a geo restricted taxi. Would you care to acknowledge that simple fact? The amount of hypotheticals you'd have to go through to compare these technologies in superiority up to this point is extensive. Go ahead, do the thought experiment. It would be a lot more interesting than a blanket interventions per mile with zero context. Otherwise it's a false equivalence dog pile in search of Internet points. We don't need repeating of exhaustingly well known qualities of Tesla's CEO. That's not interesting, the Internet is already overrun with that.

fragmede 1y ago

Also comma.ai.

Veserv 1y ago

Well because Elon Musk keeps making it. In January 2023, on the official Tesla earnings call, he said that FSD was currently overwhelmingly superior at autonomous driving than everything else in existence: "So who do we think is close to Tesla with -- a general solution for self-driving? And we still don't even know really who would even be a distant second. So yes, it really seems like we're -- I mean, right now, I don't think you could see a second place with a telescope, at least we can't." [1] That is a literal, direct, backward-looking statement about current capabilities comparing it to all existing systems. A backward-looking statement that is clearly and objectively false given their present day inability to safely deploy driverless vehicles which Waymo already achieved in 2022, let alone quantitative disengagement metrics demonstrating a level of capability between 10-100x worse than Waymo contemporaneously in 2022 [2] and inferior even to Waymo in 2015 [3]. A false statement made willingly and knowingly in official investor communications to maintain their stock price. [1] https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2023/01/26/tesla-tsla-q4-2022-earnings-call-transcript/ https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2023/01/26/te... [2] https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2023/02/17/2022-disengagement-report-from-california/ https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2023/02/17/2022-disen... [3] https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2018/02/01/disengagement-report-2017-the-good-the-bad-the-ugly/ https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2018/02/01/disengagem...

goosejuice 1y ago
So a person who most of us strongly despise makes you throw out all rational thought and make false equivalence arguments about these autonomous systems? Everything doesn't have to be about Elon. Imagine you replaced him in 2015, but still approached autonomy through mass market level 2. How would you compare them? I think you might add just a few caveats about the constraints and environments they operate in.