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Since Waymo is very reliable in LA and SF, you will be just fine in NYC. Your grid system is far less of a challenge than the amount of hills, twists, narrow s

Since Waymo is very reliable in LA and SF, you will be just fine in NYC. Your grid system is far less of a challenge than the amount of hills, twists, narrow streets and low visibility back streets in California. I genuinely think the most complicated challenge for Waymo in NYC will be…winter snow and ice.

infecto 1y ago
I would argue those two areas are very different though. The Bay Area is not as dense or as many aggressive drivers as NYC.
- testfrequency 1y ago
  My point wasn’t to say they are the same, more that SF and LA (I would guess) have covered and defeated almost every single challenge and obstacle for an urban environment (sans..weather). LA also has far denser areas than SF, places like DTLA and Koreatown are more dense than most boroughs in NYC (sans Manhattan).
  - infecto 1y ago
    My point was that it will be interesting to see how well it works in NYC where the only way to drive is aggressively in city streets breaking the rules. LA has its share of aggressive driving but as someone who has driven in both, NYC felt like I had to break the rules to go anywhere, LA not so much. Hard to really compare a tiny piece of LA and say it’s more dense and compare it to borough that is in the same range but also magnitudes larger total pop.
    - kenhwang 1y ago
      Not sure why you have the impression Waymos follow written driving rules. Here in LA they break every rule that LA drivers would with the aggressiveness to match. It really does seem like they try to make them drive as "human" as possible, with all the typical behavior found in the locale. I can't imagine it'd be any different in NYC.
      - infecto 1y ago
        My experiences have been different with Waymo. It drives with far less aggression than NYC, like I already said. It will be interesting to see as I see NYC as an interesting challenge.
kingkawn 1y ago
LA and SF are not close to close to the complexity of nyc traffic and pedestrian culture
- testfrequency 1y ago
  TIL. LA doesn’t have complex traffic? What sort of traffic do we have in LA then? LA is walkable, it’s lazy (and mostly incorrect) to say LA isn’t walkable. LA County is massive, and depending on where you want to pick a comparison from, you may prove yourself either right or wrong.
  - kingkawn 1y ago
    there is nowhere in LA with the complex intermingling of pedestrian, car, bicycle, and motorbike traffic of anywhere in the boroughs other than Staten. LA it’s gridlock or go. There’s nothing complicated about it other than strategizing where is gridlock and where is Go.
  - rickyhatespeas 1y ago
    Traffic on the sidewalk is a daily occurrence and often necessity in NYC. I'm not sure exactly how every area in LA is but often (as in pretty much constantly every day) in Manhattan or Brooklyn drivers don't obey the lines on the road, don't care to bump objects and cars to fit into a spot, literally threaten to hit other cars to get anywhere. There's a bit of a "do what you have to" mentality with NY traffic that I haven't seen in any other east coast or mid-western city. I think that poses some unique challenges that I've often seen video of Waymos freezing up when facing similar scenarios, which could cause huge issues in most of the city.
    - testfrequency 1y ago
      You articulated this very well, thanks. LA is extremely similar. Often can only make unprotected turns at lights while it’s red and you’re in the box, you have to wait at the top of a hill and have your car sideways while the oncoming car has space to drive up a hill, cars trying to give you space so you can drive through a line of traffic into the adjacent traffic pattern. The “freezing” issues are very real though (and frustrating), and it’s what most everyone who uses Waymo in any city right now jokes/complains about. Waymo can often get into a weird game of “chicken” when there’s a four way stop with pedestrians, and any slight movement from the intersection can often make the car stop - so the pedestrian stops - the the Waymo finally moves again, but then pedestrian also started moving so the Waymo stops again and the pedestrian stops caring. All this to say, I really don’t think there’s much that will be different. Go to Hollywood or Santa Monica
bytemut 1y ago
NYC is a new set of challenges. As you already mentioned snow and ice is new. But also missing the high density of people and cars per square area. Behavior of drivers and pedestrians are different and much less polite. I can see it working in NYC but "just fine" is a bit of an over confidence... at least not for the first few years before they learn to deal with these issues that they don't face yet in LA and SF.
- testfrequency 1y ago
  We do have narrow streets in LA with double parked cars, cars parked in the street only allowing one car through the middle at a time, and plenty of construction closures and obstacles. Why do so many NYC people think there’s comically no cars in LA or neighborhood streets? Also, I can assure you LA drivers are a tad bit more aggressive than NYC drivers (less honking and flicking off though, LA people are more a drive you off the road or into the shoulder sort of passive aggressive). I was born and raised in NYC and have lived in LA for quite some time, still going home often for family. I’m really struggling with reading these “NYC is unique” comments regarding Waymo traffic.
  - xnx 1y ago
    There's a weird thing where people like to brag(?) that their city has the craziest, worst, drivers/roads.
  - nobody9999 1y ago
    >Also, I can assure you LA drivers are a tad bit more aggressive than NYC drivers (less honking and flicking off though, LA people are more a drive you off the road or into the shoulder sort of passive aggressive). >I was born and raised in NYC and have lived in LA for quite some time, still going home often for family. I’m really struggling with reading these “NYC is unique” comments regarding Waymo traffic. Slightly OT, but that reminds me of a cartoon I saw many years ago (I can't remember the publication though :( ) It had two identical panels with two cars and two drivers on a road: One panel was marked "Los Angeles" where the driver of one car had a "speaking" bubble that said "Have a nice day!" and that same driver had a "thought" bubble saying "Fuck you!" The other panel was marked "New York," where the driver noted above's "speaking" bubble said "Fuck you!" and the the "thought" bubble said "Have a nice day!" I've always thought it was a great metaphor. Then again, I'm a native NYer. ;)
Grazester 1y ago
What snow and ice? We don't get much of that anymore. That was actually the last thing I am worried about here. I really want to see how Waymo does with NYC drivers and obstacles(double parking on block where sometimes you have to pull in your mirrors just to get by(if you even take the chance instead of just laying on your horn). In some neighborhoods it can be so annoying.
- ryandrake 1y ago
  I think what OP means is Waymo's most challenging rollouts will be to places that do get lots of snow and ice.
- Breza 1y ago
  There are a few days a year where it would be a major challenge. I've long wondered if there will be a time when AVs are good enough that it doesn't make sense for humans to make a living driving but not good enough to handle edge cases. Imagine leaving the Garden after a Rangers game, realizing it's snowing, and seeing the streets devoid of cabs.
kjkjadksj 1y ago
The thing is waymo at least in LA specifically geolocks you from those hilly areas. Imo it also is not assertive enough and drivers seem to be learning one can bully a waymo on the road.
joecool1029 1y ago
> I genuinely think the most complicated challenge for Waymo in NYC will be…winter snow and ice. Nah, I'm betting it'll be the locals. They'll get pissed off at it remaining stopped when it shouldn't and do shit like start ramming into it. I've had it happen on the island when I stopped at a yellow. NYC is a lot more chaotic than any other US city I've driven.
xadhominemx 1y ago
Oof I don’t know about that. Driving in NYC is much different than San Francisco. Frequent lane departures, cutting into heavy traffic despite technically lacking right of way, and other moderate rule breaking is required to get anywhere. Boston will be even more challenging due to the hundreds of convoluted intersections.
yurikoif 1y ago
is it just me or its common that in nyc people bike in most cases like there is no traffic lights at all? this to me is prob the most challenging
the-rc 1y ago
We've been getting less and less of those, though. And even then, it's just for a few days. Last year was a bit worse, but two years ago it was very, very mild, I think. Yay global warming?
kubectl_h 1y ago
I think a well designed winter specific FSD system is probably more safe in snow and ice than a human. For instance downshifting to ensure wheels continue to spin on slippery surfaces, subtle corrective steering to keep the vehicle within its lane, etc. should be easier for a FSD car since it won't panic and over-correct like most people do in those situations. And if the car reduces speed when appropriate and some assholes start tailgating it, it won't suffer the anxiety of holding up 10 cars that want to drive beyond the safe, reasonable speed for the snowy/icy conditions.
- ggreer 1y ago
  Pretty much all electric cars have single speed transmissions, so there's no downshifting. And modern vehicles have electronic stability control, anti-lock brakes, automatic emergency braking, and several other safety systems. It's pretty hard to overreact with those enabled. The main issue is that people exceed safe speeds for the conditions, making them unable to brake or turn in time to avoid a collision. Right now, most self-driving software will refuse to activate in conditions of poor visibility. I've had that happen with Tesla's FSD, though in that case it was snowing so much that the road should have been closed. Also when the snow is deep enough that your front bumper becomes a plow, it will refuse to activate.
  - kubectl_h 1y ago
    > And modern vehicles have electronic stability control, anti-lock brakes, automatic emergency braking, and several other safety systems In ice none of these really stop overcorrection, or at least they don't in my 2020 truck on icy hill/mountain roads in Maine. And I've seen nice recent Volvos and BMWs with presumably the best safety tech in ditches up in the ski towns. The correct safe speed to drive on icy roads is not to drive at all of course, but people have to get places and people make mistakes. IME the assistive technology defaults don't do great on ice roads on some kind of up/down grade. AFAIK drivers can still steer and brake themselves into a loss of control situation on ice regardless of safety features. So I guess I'm hoping once you take those two variables out of their hands, the FSD vehicles will be safer. Who knows though. I went many years without a loss of control and the one time it did happen (logging roads with ice pack) was enough for me to buy Nokian studded winter tires to minimize the effect of ice as much as possible.

infecto 1y ago

I would argue those two areas are very different though. The Bay Area is not as dense or as many aggressive drivers as NYC.

testfrequency 1y ago
My point wasn’t to say they are the same, more that SF and LA (I would guess) have covered and defeated almost every single challenge and obstacle for an urban environment (sans..weather). LA also has far denser areas than SF, places like DTLA and Koreatown are more dense than most boroughs in NYC (sans Manhattan).
- infecto 1y ago
  My point was that it will be interesting to see how well it works in NYC where the only way to drive is aggressively in city streets breaking the rules. LA has its share of aggressive driving but as someone who has driven in both, NYC felt like I had to break the rules to go anywhere, LA not so much. Hard to really compare a tiny piece of LA and say it’s more dense and compare it to borough that is in the same range but also magnitudes larger total pop.
  - kenhwang 1y ago
    Not sure why you have the impression Waymos follow written driving rules. Here in LA they break every rule that LA drivers would with the aggressiveness to match. It really does seem like they try to make them drive as "human" as possible, with all the typical behavior found in the locale. I can't imagine it'd be any different in NYC.
    - infecto 1y ago
      My experiences have been different with Waymo. It drives with far less aggression than NYC, like I already said. It will be interesting to see as I see NYC as an interesting challenge.

kingkawn 1y ago

LA and SF are not close to close to the complexity of nyc traffic and pedestrian culture

testfrequency 1y ago
TIL. LA doesn’t have complex traffic? What sort of traffic do we have in LA then? LA is walkable, it’s lazy (and mostly incorrect) to say LA isn’t walkable. LA County is massive, and depending on where you want to pick a comparison from, you may prove yourself either right or wrong.
- kingkawn 1y ago
  there is nowhere in LA with the complex intermingling of pedestrian, car, bicycle, and motorbike traffic of anywhere in the boroughs other than Staten. LA it’s gridlock or go. There’s nothing complicated about it other than strategizing where is gridlock and where is Go.
- rickyhatespeas 1y ago
  Traffic on the sidewalk is a daily occurrence and often necessity in NYC. I'm not sure exactly how every area in LA is but often (as in pretty much constantly every day) in Manhattan or Brooklyn drivers don't obey the lines on the road, don't care to bump objects and cars to fit into a spot, literally threaten to hit other cars to get anywhere. There's a bit of a "do what you have to" mentality with NY traffic that I haven't seen in any other east coast or mid-western city. I think that poses some unique challenges that I've often seen video of Waymos freezing up when facing similar scenarios, which could cause huge issues in most of the city.
  - testfrequency 1y ago
    You articulated this very well, thanks. LA is extremely similar. Often can only make unprotected turns at lights while it’s red and you’re in the box, you have to wait at the top of a hill and have your car sideways while the oncoming car has space to drive up a hill, cars trying to give you space so you can drive through a line of traffic into the adjacent traffic pattern. The “freezing” issues are very real though (and frustrating), and it’s what most everyone who uses Waymo in any city right now jokes/complains about. Waymo can often get into a weird game of “chicken” when there’s a four way stop with pedestrians, and any slight movement from the intersection can often make the car stop - so the pedestrian stops - the the Waymo finally moves again, but then pedestrian also started moving so the Waymo stops again and the pedestrian stops caring. All this to say, I really don’t think there’s much that will be different. Go to Hollywood or Santa Monica

bytemut 1y ago

NYC is a new set of challenges. As you already mentioned snow and ice is new. But also missing the high density of people and cars per square area. Behavior of drivers and pedestrians are different and much less polite. I can see it working in NYC but "just fine" is a bit of an over confidence... at least not for the first few years before they learn to deal with these issues that they don't face yet in LA and SF.

testfrequency 1y ago
We do have narrow streets in LA with double parked cars, cars parked in the street only allowing one car through the middle at a time, and plenty of construction closures and obstacles. Why do so many NYC people think there’s comically no cars in LA or neighborhood streets? Also, I can assure you LA drivers are a tad bit more aggressive than NYC drivers (less honking and flicking off though, LA people are more a drive you off the road or into the shoulder sort of passive aggressive). I was born and raised in NYC and have lived in LA for quite some time, still going home often for family. I’m really struggling with reading these “NYC is unique” comments regarding Waymo traffic.
- xnx 1y ago
  There's a weird thing where people like to brag(?) that their city has the craziest, worst, drivers/roads.
- nobody9999 1y ago
  >Also, I can assure you LA drivers are a tad bit more aggressive than NYC drivers (less honking and flicking off though, LA people are more a drive you off the road or into the shoulder sort of passive aggressive). >I was born and raised in NYC and have lived in LA for quite some time, still going home often for family. I’m really struggling with reading these “NYC is unique” comments regarding Waymo traffic. Slightly OT, but that reminds me of a cartoon I saw many years ago (I can't remember the publication though :( ) It had two identical panels with two cars and two drivers on a road: One panel was marked "Los Angeles" where the driver of one car had a "speaking" bubble that said "Have a nice day!" and that same driver had a "thought" bubble saying "Fuck you!" The other panel was marked "New York," where the driver noted above's "speaking" bubble said "Fuck you!" and the the "thought" bubble said "Have a nice day!" I've always thought it was a great metaphor. Then again, I'm a native NYer. ;)

Grazester 1y ago

What snow and ice? We don't get much of that anymore. That was actually the last thing I am worried about here. I really want to see how Waymo does with NYC drivers and obstacles(double parking on block where sometimes you have to pull in your mirrors just to get by(if you even take the chance instead of just laying on your horn). In some neighborhoods it can be so annoying.

ryandrake 1y ago
I think what OP means is Waymo's most challenging rollouts will be to places that do get lots of snow and ice.
Breza 1y ago
There are a few days a year where it would be a major challenge. I've long wondered if there will be a time when AVs are good enough that it doesn't make sense for humans to make a living driving but not good enough to handle edge cases. Imagine leaving the Garden after a Rangers game, realizing it's snowing, and seeing the streets devoid of cabs.

kjkjadksj 1y ago

The thing is waymo at least in LA specifically geolocks you from those hilly areas. Imo it also is not assertive enough and drivers seem to be learning one can bully a waymo on the road.

joecool1029 1y ago

> I genuinely think the most complicated challenge for Waymo in NYC will be…winter snow and ice. Nah, I'm betting it'll be the locals. They'll get pissed off at it remaining stopped when it shouldn't and do shit like start ramming into it. I've had it happen on the island when I stopped at a yellow. NYC is a lot more chaotic than any other US city I've driven.

xadhominemx 1y ago

Oof I don’t know about that. Driving in NYC is much different than San Francisco. Frequent lane departures, cutting into heavy traffic despite technically lacking right of way, and other moderate rule breaking is required to get anywhere. Boston will be even more challenging due to the hundreds of convoluted intersections.

yurikoif 1y ago

is it just me or its common that in nyc people bike in most cases like there is no traffic lights at all? this to me is prob the most challenging

the-rc 1y ago

We've been getting less and less of those, though. And even then, it's just for a few days. Last year was a bit worse, but two years ago it was very, very mild, I think. Yay global warming?

kubectl_h 1y ago

I think a well designed winter specific FSD system is probably more safe in snow and ice than a human. For instance downshifting to ensure wheels continue to spin on slippery surfaces, subtle corrective steering to keep the vehicle within its lane, etc. should be easier for a FSD car since it won't panic and over-correct like most people do in those situations. And if the car reduces speed when appropriate and some assholes start tailgating it, it won't suffer the anxiety of holding up 10 cars that want to drive beyond the safe, reasonable speed for the snowy/icy conditions.

ggreer 1y ago
Pretty much all electric cars have single speed transmissions, so there's no downshifting. And modern vehicles have electronic stability control, anti-lock brakes, automatic emergency braking, and several other safety systems. It's pretty hard to overreact with those enabled. The main issue is that people exceed safe speeds for the conditions, making them unable to brake or turn in time to avoid a collision. Right now, most self-driving software will refuse to activate in conditions of poor visibility. I've had that happen with Tesla's FSD, though in that case it was snowing so much that the road should have been closed. Also when the snow is deep enough that your front bumper becomes a plow, it will refuse to activate.
- kubectl_h 1y ago
  > And modern vehicles have electronic stability control, anti-lock brakes, automatic emergency braking, and several other safety systems In ice none of these really stop overcorrection, or at least they don't in my 2020 truck on icy hill/mountain roads in Maine. And I've seen nice recent Volvos and BMWs with presumably the best safety tech in ditches up in the ski towns. The correct safe speed to drive on icy roads is not to drive at all of course, but people have to get places and people make mistakes. IME the assistive technology defaults don't do great on ice roads on some kind of up/down grade. AFAIK drivers can still steer and brake themselves into a loss of control situation on ice regardless of safety features. So I guess I'm hoping once you take those two variables out of their hands, the FSD vehicles will be safer. Who knows though. I went many years without a loss of control and the one time it did happen (logging roads with ice pack) was enough for me to buy Nokian studded winter tires to minimize the effect of ice as much as possible.