3 ms·

sometimes you lose

dude250711 1y ago
Like everything but acquisitions since the original product?
kelnos 1y ago
When your track record includes a lot of losses, the scale points more and more toward "clueless" and away from "4D chess".
- aspenmayer 1y ago
  Isn’t that already priced in? Shorts exist.
  - jeremyjh 1y ago
    The market can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent.
    - aspenmayer 1y ago
      That was my point, if someone thinks that Meta is overvalued, they can put their money where their mouth is. The fact that the share price hasn’t cratered is a kind of collective belief in the opposite.
      - ath3nd 1y ago
        Edgy prediction: Meta is irrelevant and on a path to even further irrelevancy, and, fingers crossed, a bankruptcy or at least Zuck being removed as the main man
        aspenmayer 1y ago
        Edgier prediction: Meta is too (big, but more importantly) relevant to (be allowed to) fail, because it can be co-opted by TLAs due to its apps being pre-loaded on mobile devices. https://news.ycombinator.com/context?id=44979751 https://news.ycombinator.com/context?id=44979751
        Imustaskforhelp 1y ago
        There were a lot of things too big to fail Lehman brothers, Enron. When this bubble pops, its going to be absolute chaos maybe just like last time
        aspenmayer 1y ago
        It will be chaos for those working at Meta and those invested in them too much without an appropriate hedge. I doubt I will notice much, to be honest. Even if Meta tanked, unless Messenger/Whatsapp stop working, it’s kind of beside the point how much their stock trades for. Everyone will just use whatever has or keeps the most public interest, whether that is Meta-owned or something else. The worrying aspect is that for Meta to really tank in value, the shit has to have already hit the fan, and it probably would not be isolated to Meta. My point in my prior comment was that Meta serves the purposes of the IC status quo just by doing what they’re already doing. Cloudflare too, in a way.
        ath3nd 1y ago
        > Meta serves the purposes of the IC status quo The problem is that their products are getting worse and worse. Signal is already taking a huge share from WhatsApp (ads and AI chat bots, really?) and Messenger. TikTok absolutely obliterated Instagram. Facebook is sliding into irrelevancy, and most importantly, they have a lot of failed products like Oculus, Metaverse (wtf is it anyway), LLAMa, etc. Now they are sliding into even more irrelevance and burning money even faster trying to poach extremely expensive OpenAI folks. My conspiracy theory is that Facebook ads earning numbers are somehow a scam. After so many bad decisions on their part, so much waste and bad execution that I can't see them surviving the next 5 years.
        colejohnson66 1y ago
        "The Zuck" can't be removed — he has more the 60% of the votes![0] The board stupidly voted to do so a few years ago. [0]: He only has about 13% of the shares, but the dual allocation means that his class B shares are worth 10 votes. And he owns 99% of those shares. https://observer.com/2023/06/mark-zuckerberg-2023-shareholder-meeting/ https://observer.com/2023/06/mark-zuckerberg-2023-shareholde...
      - Imustaskforhelp 1y ago
        I can't/won't short the stock because shorting usually is for 14 days etc. and I can't be certain in that timeframe about meta or any company I mean, theoretically you could short a company for a really long time it seems like, I just searched, I always assumed it to usually be of 14 days but still.
        aspenmayer 1y ago
        Isn’t that the reason options even exist? You need to know you won’t starve and die if your harvest doesn’t come in. I’ll admit that I’m no expert on finance and innovations in financial instruments, but I think short selling has been around in some form or another for centuries. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short_(finance) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short_(finance) > The practice of short selling was likely invented in 1609 by Dutch businessman Isaac Le Maire, a sizeable shareholder of the Dutch East India Company (Vereenigde Oostindische Compagnie or VOC in Dutch).
- vehemenz 1y ago
  Especially when there are hours of public footage of the decision maker in question not sounding particular astute as a technical or strategic thinker.
- edmundsauto 1y ago
  How does zuck’s net win-loss track record look to you?
  - specialist 1y ago
    The lottery.
dartharva 1y ago
Doesn't sound like "sometimes" in most cases
ath3nd 1y ago
And like VR? And like...LLAMa? Maybe also like adding ads in WhatsApp cause we gotta squeeze our users so we can spend on... AI gurus? Meta has not had a win since they named themselves Meta. It's enjoyable to watch them flail around like clueless morons jumping on every fad and wasting their time and money.
- Imustaskforhelp 1y ago
  It makes me feel better / more comfortable with myself seeing what meta does. Almost being childish. Maybe this sounds selfish but its a little fun to me to see them lose. I just don't like meta and its privacy in sensitive ad network bullshit. Like the fact that if someone clicked a photo and deleted it then show them beauty ads because they are insecure. I can't give 2 cents about the growth of such a black mirror -esque company
  - ath3nd 1y ago
    > I can't give 2 cents about the growth of such a black mirror -esque company I would donate my two cents or even more to witness their downfall though. I left WhatsApp years ago, and haven't used any of their other services like fb or Instagram. I don't want to contribute to a company that actively helped a couple of genocides (Myanmar), help elect a dictator or two (Philippines) and spread racist propaganda and, most recently, allowing women to be called 'personal objects'. Their tech is far from impressive, their products are far from impressive, the only impressive thing is that they are still in business.

sometimes you lose

Like everything but acquisitions since the original product?

When your track record includes a lot of losses, the scale points more and more toward "clueless" and away from "4D chess".

aspenmayer 1y ago
Isn’t that already priced in? Shorts exist.
- jeremyjh 1y ago
  The market can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent.
  - aspenmayer 1y ago
    That was my point, if someone thinks that Meta is overvalued, they can put their money where their mouth is. The fact that the share price hasn’t cratered is a kind of collective belief in the opposite.
    - ath3nd 1y ago
      Edgy prediction: Meta is irrelevant and on a path to even further irrelevancy, and, fingers crossed, a bankruptcy or at least Zuck being removed as the main man
      - aspenmayer 1y ago
        Edgier prediction: Meta is too (big, but more importantly) relevant to (be allowed to) fail, because it can be co-opted by TLAs due to its apps being pre-loaded on mobile devices. https://news.ycombinator.com/context?id=44979751 https://news.ycombinator.com/context?id=44979751
        Imustaskforhelp 1y ago
        There were a lot of things too big to fail Lehman brothers, Enron. When this bubble pops, its going to be absolute chaos maybe just like last time
        aspenmayer 1y ago
        It will be chaos for those working at Meta and those invested in them too much without an appropriate hedge. I doubt I will notice much, to be honest. Even if Meta tanked, unless Messenger/Whatsapp stop working, it’s kind of beside the point how much their stock trades for. Everyone will just use whatever has or keeps the most public interest, whether that is Meta-owned or something else. The worrying aspect is that for Meta to really tank in value, the shit has to have already hit the fan, and it probably would not be isolated to Meta. My point in my prior comment was that Meta serves the purposes of the IC status quo just by doing what they’re already doing. Cloudflare too, in a way.
        ath3nd 1y ago
        > Meta serves the purposes of the IC status quo The problem is that their products are getting worse and worse. Signal is already taking a huge share from WhatsApp (ads and AI chat bots, really?) and Messenger. TikTok absolutely obliterated Instagram. Facebook is sliding into irrelevancy, and most importantly, they have a lot of failed products like Oculus, Metaverse (wtf is it anyway), LLAMa, etc. Now they are sliding into even more irrelevance and burning money even faster trying to poach extremely expensive OpenAI folks. My conspiracy theory is that Facebook ads earning numbers are somehow a scam. After so many bad decisions on their part, so much waste and bad execution that I can't see them surviving the next 5 years.
      - colejohnson66 1y ago
        "The Zuck" can't be removed — he has more the 60% of the votes![0] The board stupidly voted to do so a few years ago. [0]: He only has about 13% of the shares, but the dual allocation means that his class B shares are worth 10 votes. And he owns 99% of those shares. https://observer.com/2023/06/mark-zuckerberg-2023-shareholder-meeting/ https://observer.com/2023/06/mark-zuckerberg-2023-shareholde...
    - Imustaskforhelp 1y ago
      I can't/won't short the stock because shorting usually is for 14 days etc. and I can't be certain in that timeframe about meta or any company I mean, theoretically you could short a company for a really long time it seems like, I just searched, I always assumed it to usually be of 14 days but still.
      - aspenmayer 1y ago
        Isn’t that the reason options even exist? You need to know you won’t starve and die if your harvest doesn’t come in. I’ll admit that I’m no expert on finance and innovations in financial instruments, but I think short selling has been around in some form or another for centuries. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short_(finance) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short_(finance) > The practice of short selling was likely invented in 1609 by Dutch businessman Isaac Le Maire, a sizeable shareholder of the Dutch East India Company (Vereenigde Oostindische Compagnie or VOC in Dutch).
vehemenz 1y ago
Especially when there are hours of public footage of the decision maker in question not sounding particular astute as a technical or strategic thinker.
edmundsauto 1y ago
How does zuck’s net win-loss track record look to you?
- specialist 1y ago
  The lottery.

dartharva 1y ago

Doesn't sound like "sometimes" in most cases

ath3nd 1y ago

And like VR? And like...LLAMa? Maybe also like adding ads in WhatsApp cause we gotta squeeze our users so we can spend on... AI gurus? Meta has not had a win since they named themselves Meta. It's enjoyable to watch them flail around like clueless morons jumping on every fad and wasting their time and money.

Imustaskforhelp 1y ago
It makes me feel better / more comfortable with myself seeing what meta does. Almost being childish. Maybe this sounds selfish but its a little fun to me to see them lose. I just don't like meta and its privacy in sensitive ad network bullshit. Like the fact that if someone clicked a photo and deleted it then show them beauty ads because they are insecure. I can't give 2 cents about the growth of such a black mirror -esque company
- ath3nd 1y ago
  > I can't give 2 cents about the growth of such a black mirror -esque company I would donate my two cents or even more to witness their downfall though. I left WhatsApp years ago, and haven't used any of their other services like fb or Instagram. I don't want to contribute to a company that actively helped a couple of genocides (Myanmar), help elect a dictator or two (Philippines) and spread racist propaganda and, most recently, allowing women to be called 'personal objects'. Their tech is far from impressive, their products are far from impressive, the only impressive thing is that they are still in business.