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Ironic as it may sound, coming from a childfree millennial, I'm kind of puzzled how the system will survive. Both my grandparents died in their 90s, and spent o

Ironic as it may sound, coming from a childfree millennial, I'm kind of puzzled how the system will survive. Both my grandparents died in their 90s, and spent over 30 years are retirees - mainly living off their state pension. As people become older, they'll either have to work longer, or the system will come crashing down. Especially with lower fertility rates. My generation should be birthing kids as the previous ones, but I think almost half of my peers are childfree, too. And we're in the age that we have maybe - if lucky - 6,7 more years to reproduce. I can't imagine a population where 1/3 will be retired people. It is also a huge drain on the healthcare system.

otabdeveloper4 1y ago
> can't imagine a population where 1/3 will be retired people. We're currently trending towards a birth rate of 1 or less. This means 4/5 will be retirees in three generations. Your 1/3 figure is wildly optimistic. Little chance it will be that good.
XorNot 1y ago
A substantial realignment in the economy is what's coming. The charge will be when the rate of vacated homes starts to uptick as their aren't enough capable people to live in them: right now the major metros have a lot of pent up demand, but those retirement figures imply a different reality as time goes on: eventually those people start going into care facilities, but their won't be nearly enough people around to supply the demand for the properties they're finally moving out from. The real markets are absolutely not ready for that reality.
- sharadov 1y ago
  Case in point - Japan, with so many abandoned homes
  - renox 1y ago
    In the countryside, I doubt that this is the case in Tokyo.
- kibwen 1y ago
  > right now the major metros have a lot of pent up demand The major metros have the least to worry about from this. Those cities have high housing costs because of demand, or to put it another way, those cities have high demand despite high housing costs, and the economic factors that cause people to be attracted to cities aren't going to go away; density is devastatingly efficient and it's cheaper and more convenient for people to be close to things. But what this means is that as the population falls, that latent demand causes the less dense, lower-priced areas to depopulate. See Japan's crisis of rural depopulation, and how Tokyo isn't the one feeling the pinch.
fuzzfactor 1y ago
>I can't imagine a population where 1/3 will be retired people. In South Florida it's always been like that or more. No imagination required :)
allpratik 1y ago
Hopefully the deflation scenario due to technology will help with this shift gracefully. Else, it will be extremely difficult. But if we had deflation in the economy, how will the investment scenario will Peter out is anyone’s guess. I wonder The people who invented this financial growth will, why they didn’t thought about this in the long term? I guess, I have asked a question which has quite a generic answer already…
bombcar 1y ago
I often meditate on this - can even the concept of index fund retirement survive an actual depopulation scenario? Of course, older forms of retirement can still work (have ten kids each of who have ten kids and you command an army in retirement; perhaps they’ll even call you King) - but aside from that where does the growth come from when not from population or immigration?
- nradov 1y ago
  Index funds will survive anything short of a complete collapse of the financial system. Even if returns are low, they only have to be better than the alternatives (on a risk adjusted basis).
  - bombcar 1y ago
    Sure - but being better than the stock-alternatives in a fifty year bear market is cold comfort; and many retirement plans are built on assumed real returns that may never be seen again.
  - kwere 1y ago
    if the consumer base collapse what will keep the stock fundamentals going ?
    - nradov 1y ago
      Stock values may decline but there will still be index funds holding those stocks.

otabdeveloper4 1y ago

> can't imagine a population where 1/3 will be retired people. We're currently trending towards a birth rate of 1 or less. This means 4/5 will be retirees in three generations. Your 1/3 figure is wildly optimistic. Little chance it will be that good.

XorNot 1y ago

A substantial realignment in the economy is what's coming. The charge will be when the rate of vacated homes starts to uptick as their aren't enough capable people to live in them: right now the major metros have a lot of pent up demand, but those retirement figures imply a different reality as time goes on: eventually those people start going into care facilities, but their won't be nearly enough people around to supply the demand for the properties they're finally moving out from. The real markets are absolutely not ready for that reality.

sharadov 1y ago
Case in point - Japan, with so many abandoned homes
- renox 1y ago
  In the countryside, I doubt that this is the case in Tokyo.
kibwen 1y ago
> right now the major metros have a lot of pent up demand The major metros have the least to worry about from this. Those cities have high housing costs because of demand, or to put it another way, those cities have high demand despite high housing costs, and the economic factors that cause people to be attracted to cities aren't going to go away; density is devastatingly efficient and it's cheaper and more convenient for people to be close to things. But what this means is that as the population falls, that latent demand causes the less dense, lower-priced areas to depopulate. See Japan's crisis of rural depopulation, and how Tokyo isn't the one feeling the pinch.

fuzzfactor 1y ago

>I can't imagine a population where 1/3 will be retired people. In South Florida it's always been like that or more. No imagination required :)

allpratik 1y ago

Hopefully the deflation scenario due to technology will help with this shift gracefully. Else, it will be extremely difficult. But if we had deflation in the economy, how will the investment scenario will Peter out is anyone’s guess. I wonder The people who invented this financial growth will, why they didn’t thought about this in the long term? I guess, I have asked a question which has quite a generic answer already…

bombcar 1y ago

I often meditate on this - can even the concept of index fund retirement survive an actual depopulation scenario? Of course, older forms of retirement can still work (have ten kids each of who have ten kids and you command an army in retirement; perhaps they’ll even call you King) - but aside from that where does the growth come from when not from population or immigration?

nradov 1y ago
Index funds will survive anything short of a complete collapse of the financial system. Even if returns are low, they only have to be better than the alternatives (on a risk adjusted basis).
- bombcar 1y ago
  Sure - but being better than the stock-alternatives in a fifty year bear market is cold comfort; and many retirement plans are built on assumed real returns that may never be seen again.
- kwere 1y ago
  if the consumer base collapse what will keep the stock fundamentals going ?
  - nradov 1y ago
    Stock values may decline but there will still be index funds holding those stocks.