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Even if Trump isn’t the one, this means we are ready for our Caesar and fall of the Republic. Of course I think we’ve been sliding toward our decadent imperial

by api 1y ago

Even if Trump isn’t the one, this means we are ready for our Caesar and fall of the Republic. Of course I think we’ve been sliding toward our decadent imperial phase for quite some time. This did not materialize out of nowhere. The Executive long ago took the power to declare war from Congress, at least in practice, and that was one of the first huge steps. Personally I think Trump will die, there will be a power struggle, and it will be one of the next few. There’s even some chance it could be a left-populist authoritarian. Political winds can shift fast in an environment like this. Speed running the fall of Rome.

jacquesm 1y ago
Rome, for all its might was puny in comparison to the United States. The downfall and/or breakup of the USA will leave the world in pieces. If it happens - which I really hope it will not, though I don't see how at this point it is still unavoidable - millions of people will die the world over. Every two bit dictator will see their chance and grab it knowing the next opportunity to do so will be at least a century away. The number of democracies and the number of people living in an (actual) democracy is already a minority. Democracy may well soon become an endangered species in the zoo of possible governments.
- api 1y ago
  China will probably rise up in our place, which is why I think MAGA just handed the world to China. In that first state of the union when he talked about a golden age I was like “yeah, this is the Chinese century. He’s gonna burn it down.” Literally gilding the White House is a caricature of how you’d depict the fall of an empire in bad fiction. An editor would say that was cliche.
  - jacquesm 1y ago
    There is a pretty good chance of that, I don't see any other contenders. Australia and NZ better watch their back.
  - Bender 1y ago
    China is going through its own issues at the moment. Larger numbers of people are rising up against the CCP and recent events are becoming more and more frequent. Their government is predictably cracking down harder on its citizens. But you could be right, just not with the CCP but rather whatever government takes its place soon. The riots have not yet reached their precipice but it's getting nasty.
    - api 1y ago
      A more liberal and open Chinese government would be exactly what they need if they want to take the place of the USA on the world stage. Of course a revolution is not guaranteed to produce that. Revolutions often end with a new boss worse than the old boss. But it could. It's a dice roll, a high risk thing, which is why people have to be pushed really hard to do it. It helps the US for China to have its own "make China great again" revanchist authoritarian CCP. It slows their overall growth and keeps them from engaging with the world. Walls are for losers. Global mercantile empires must be porous and outward facing. This porosity becomes the main source of their soft power and causes them to export their culture globally. If China starts allowing a little more immigration that would turbocharge their rise, since every immigrant community inside China becomes the terminal end of a line of influence reaching back to wherever they came from. If they don't liberalize then who knows. Maybe the US will decide to remove the shot gun from its mouth, in which case the window will close.
      - Bender 1y ago
        For what it's worth it will probably be quite a while before China reaches the Make China Great Again phase. At the moment they have not even reached the Stop Bludgeoning Citizens Again.
    - antifa 1y ago
      > Larger numbers of people are rising up against the CCP and recent events are becoming more and more frequent. Do you have a source on that, preferably one that's not quoting a cult like the chinese version of scientology, not uploading daily china-will-collaspse-soon videos, not a tankie, or other random type of propaganda/fanboy outlet?

by api 1y ago

jacquesm 1y ago

Rome, for all its might was puny in comparison to the United States. The downfall and/or breakup of the USA will leave the world in pieces. If it happens - which I really hope it will not, though I don't see how at this point it is still unavoidable - millions of people will die the world over. Every two bit dictator will see their chance and grab it knowing the next opportunity to do so will be at least a century away. The number of democracies and the number of people living in an (actual) democracy is already a minority. Democracy may well soon become an endangered species in the zoo of possible governments.

api 1y ago
China will probably rise up in our place, which is why I think MAGA just handed the world to China. In that first state of the union when he talked about a golden age I was like “yeah, this is the Chinese century. He’s gonna burn it down.” Literally gilding the White House is a caricature of how you’d depict the fall of an empire in bad fiction. An editor would say that was cliche.
- jacquesm 1y ago
  There is a pretty good chance of that, I don't see any other contenders. Australia and NZ better watch their back.
- Bender 1y ago
  China is going through its own issues at the moment. Larger numbers of people are rising up against the CCP and recent events are becoming more and more frequent. Their government is predictably cracking down harder on its citizens. But you could be right, just not with the CCP but rather whatever government takes its place soon. The riots have not yet reached their precipice but it's getting nasty.
  - api 1y ago
    A more liberal and open Chinese government would be exactly what they need if they want to take the place of the USA on the world stage. Of course a revolution is not guaranteed to produce that. Revolutions often end with a new boss worse than the old boss. But it could. It's a dice roll, a high risk thing, which is why people have to be pushed really hard to do it. It helps the US for China to have its own "make China great again" revanchist authoritarian CCP. It slows their overall growth and keeps them from engaging with the world. Walls are for losers. Global mercantile empires must be porous and outward facing. This porosity becomes the main source of their soft power and causes them to export their culture globally. If China starts allowing a little more immigration that would turbocharge their rise, since every immigrant community inside China becomes the terminal end of a line of influence reaching back to wherever they came from. If they don't liberalize then who knows. Maybe the US will decide to remove the shot gun from its mouth, in which case the window will close.
    - Bender 1y ago
      For what it's worth it will probably be quite a while before China reaches the Make China Great Again phase. At the moment they have not even reached the Stop Bludgeoning Citizens Again.
  - antifa 1y ago
    > Larger numbers of people are rising up against the CCP and recent events are becoming more and more frequent. Do you have a source on that, preferably one that's not quoting a cult like the chinese version of scientology, not uploading daily china-will-collaspse-soon videos, not a tankie, or other random type of propaganda/fanboy outlet?