6 ms·

This kind of mileage is unusual with cars but it's pretty normal for semis. But even with those, engines get overhauled and there's lots of cumulative maintenan

This kind of mileage is unusual with cars but it's pretty normal for semis. But even with those, engines get overhauled and there's lots of cumulative maintenance over the years. There are still trucks build in the sixties in service in some places. With EVs, we might get some battery packs and drive trains actually lasting this long. Maybe not with nmc batteries. But some lfp batteries seem to have enough charge cycles on paper that they really could last that long. 5000 charge cycles at 300 miles per charge adds up to about 1.5M miles. Of course lots of other things might fail. But at least electrical motors are known to be pretty durable. That's not a common failure point on EVs as far as I know. But there's plenty of other stuff in EVs (electronics, cooling systems, suspension, etc.) that can break. Of course, it will be a while before we'll see EVs that have driven that far as those type of batteries have only been on the market for a few years and even with 100K miles driven per year (which is a lot), it would take 12 years to get to 1.2M. This Toyota took quite a few decades to get there. According to the article, this car actually wasn't particularly durable (the words 'rust buckets' were used). But if you just keep patching it up, of course it will run fine. And greasing up all the bits that would normally rust seems smart as well.

teiferer 1y ago
> With EVs, we might get some battery packs and drive trains actually lasting this long. I doubt it. The components in modern cars are not made to last as long. Neither is the software. Ever tried a 15 year old Iphone? A Tesla won't feel much different. Everything is meant to be consumed nowadays, and eventually, sooner rather than later, replaced.
- benjiro 1y ago
  And you get the luxury of paying 50% more, for that privilege (vs a ICE engine). I said it before, give me that BYD (reverse) hybrid engine, that does 1080km on a single tank. Unfortunately, battery tech despite all the lab "super improvements" are not seeing any major gains in the field. And a lot of money has been going into that.
  - speedgoose 1y ago
    Are they affordable 4wd ICE with like 500hp and 500nm of torque, a flat torque curve, no lag, while still being smooth and reliable?
  - teiferer 1y ago
    The issue is not EV vs ICE. It's that things are not built to last or to be easily maintainable / serviceable. A modern car is not just like a smartphone you are sitting inside of, it's a server rack full of stuff. Of course that's outdated 1-2 decades from now and nobody is going to provide updated software anymore. All things equal I'd even expect this to be worse with an ICE because of higher complexity, though the tech is more mature and stable at this point and the ICE manufacturing more traditionalist than the EV space.
- MBCook 1y ago
  There was recently an article about someone with a 3 year old Ford Mustang Mach E with 250k miles (400k KM). https://www.thedrive.com/news/meet-the-man-with-the-250000-mile-ford-mustang-mach-e https://www.thedrive.com/news/meet-the-man-with-the-250000-m... Battery is still over 90%. And given that he’s having to do a full charge every day for the amount he drives, that’s pretty impressive. Still on the original brake pads too. Sounds like all he’s really had to do is put on new tires a couple of times.
  - cogman10 1y ago
    I have a 7 year old EV with 160k miles (250km). Battery has just now dipped below 90% it's new range. Age is surprisingly a pretty big factor in how long the batteries will last. More so than a lot of other factors (including mileage).
benjiro 1y ago
One of the big questions is going to be, can you still find the battery packs 15 year, 20, 30 years later. The problem is that rebuilding battery packs is not a joke (and expensive). Assuming the same cells can be found / are not some crap 3th party manufactured in the future. Lets also not forget that battery packs are full of electronics, BMS, and other items that may be less forgiving on a rebuild where batteries may be off in voltage or have a different charge cycle. The future is going to be "interesting", especially for car collectors. Getting a old antique car running is often not that hard (as long as it has not been standing where water can enter the engine. New hoses, oil changes, clean filters, and you can often get engines that have stood outside for 15, 20 years going again. Sure, its going to smoke, may need new piston rings, ... and Water being the prime killer. But a battery pack in those conditions? > 5000 charge cycles at 300 miles per charge adds up to about 1.5M miles. Under ideal driving / charge situations... * Hot areas like Spain. For instance, its know that batteries from EVs in hot area's tend to be much more degraded, then from cooler areas (make sense). * Did they fast charge those batteries = your going to cycle down a LOT more. Remember, those 6000 cycle for stuff like LiPo batteries are based upon slow charging. General tip for people with solar: Overspec your battery sizes, your going to thank me. * Did they always charge to 100%? What is the actual hidden reserve on a battery pack? Is it 5%, 10%? * How many times did they drive below the 20% range. There is a lot of elements that interact with your battery life. I mean, how many of use have thrown out perfectly good smartphone because the battery life became a disaster after only a few years. And the cost to replace the battery was not in proportion. Recently people driving to holiday here in Europe had fun times... 15 a 25min wait times at charge stations, and when they hit 80% they got kicked off the fast chargers (because after 80% it becomes very slow to charge up those last 20%). Slow charging was not allowed. So people needed to stop around every 60 a 70% of their battery range on their holiday trip. Wait 15 a 25 min for a charger, then wait another 45 min for their charge. While the guy with his ICE engine, stops, tanks in 5 minutes, goes for another 50% more distance.
- wcoenen 1y ago
  > Recently people driving to holiday here in Europe had fun times... 15 a 25min wait times at charge stations My last two holidays in Europe I drove an EV about 1000 km to a holiday destination, and back again. So far I have never had to queue to charge. I did notice that it is not unusual for a rest stop with only 2 to 4 fast chargers to be fully occupied. But if you use an app like ABRP to plan ahead, then it will tend to guide you to larger charging sites (e.g. 20 to 30 fast chargers of a few different brands). These charge planning apps also have live data about how many chargers are currently in use, so they will not send you to a fully occupied site if there are alternatives. YMMV and the situation will change every year of course, as more EVs are added. Norway is the most advanced in Europe when it comes to car electrification, so if there are issues I guess they will show up over there first.
TimByte 1y ago
I suspect in 30 years we'll be seeing million-mile EVs… but they'll probably be on their second or third infotainment system
- SoftTalker 1y ago
  They still have control arms, ball joints, shocks, tie rods, bearings, and rubber and plastic seals and other bits that will wear out, dry out, or degrade. Not to mention a lot of electronics with limited-life components such as capacitors. The oldest modern EVs are just now getting to the age where those sorts of repairs will start to become necessary.
torginus 1y ago
I think history will show people have vastly overestimated the durability of EV and not just because of batteries. Inverters have IGBTs and capacitors, both of which are wear items. I don't have an EV, but just got solar, and my installer told me that I can expect the inverter will need replacing in 15 years. And solar inverters push far less wattage at far more benign circumstances than cars' do, which push 100s of kWs peak in hot and cold, mud and rain.
- fy20 1y ago
  Don't forget these parts have been around in hybrids for multiple decades, and taxis often use hybrids (so higher milage, longer running times). In my country the most popular car for taxis and food delivery is the Prius gen 2, which was made from 2003 - 2009.
  - eldaisfish 1y ago
    that's not a valid comparison. The highest voltage in a Prius battery is about 350 V. Most older Prius designs use a 200 V battery. A typical EV battery is also around 350 V but the current in and out is much higher. Many EVs use 800 V designs. The most important factors that destroy solid state devices like IGBTs are voltage and heat. IGBTs in wind turbines fail every ten years or so. Expect to see many EV inverters fail in the next decade.

teiferer 1y ago

> With EVs, we might get some battery packs and drive trains actually lasting this long. I doubt it. The components in modern cars are not made to last as long. Neither is the software. Ever tried a 15 year old Iphone? A Tesla won't feel much different. Everything is meant to be consumed nowadays, and eventually, sooner rather than later, replaced.

benjiro 1y ago
And you get the luxury of paying 50% more, for that privilege (vs a ICE engine). I said it before, give me that BYD (reverse) hybrid engine, that does 1080km on a single tank. Unfortunately, battery tech despite all the lab "super improvements" are not seeing any major gains in the field. And a lot of money has been going into that.
- speedgoose 1y ago
  Are they affordable 4wd ICE with like 500hp and 500nm of torque, a flat torque curve, no lag, while still being smooth and reliable?
- teiferer 1y ago
  The issue is not EV vs ICE. It's that things are not built to last or to be easily maintainable / serviceable. A modern car is not just like a smartphone you are sitting inside of, it's a server rack full of stuff. Of course that's outdated 1-2 decades from now and nobody is going to provide updated software anymore. All things equal I'd even expect this to be worse with an ICE because of higher complexity, though the tech is more mature and stable at this point and the ICE manufacturing more traditionalist than the EV space.
MBCook 1y ago
There was recently an article about someone with a 3 year old Ford Mustang Mach E with 250k miles (400k KM). https://www.thedrive.com/news/meet-the-man-with-the-250000-mile-ford-mustang-mach-e https://www.thedrive.com/news/meet-the-man-with-the-250000-m... Battery is still over 90%. And given that he’s having to do a full charge every day for the amount he drives, that’s pretty impressive. Still on the original brake pads too. Sounds like all he’s really had to do is put on new tires a couple of times.
- cogman10 1y ago
  I have a 7 year old EV with 160k miles (250km). Battery has just now dipped below 90% it's new range. Age is surprisingly a pretty big factor in how long the batteries will last. More so than a lot of other factors (including mileage).

benjiro 1y ago

One of the big questions is going to be, can you still find the battery packs 15 year, 20, 30 years later. The problem is that rebuilding battery packs is not a joke (and expensive). Assuming the same cells can be found / are not some crap 3th party manufactured in the future. Lets also not forget that battery packs are full of electronics, BMS, and other items that may be less forgiving on a rebuild where batteries may be off in voltage or have a different charge cycle. The future is going to be "interesting", especially for car collectors. Getting a old antique car running is often not that hard (as long as it has not been standing where water can enter the engine. New hoses, oil changes, clean filters, and you can often get engines that have stood outside for 15, 20 years going again. Sure, its going to smoke, may need new piston rings, ... and Water being the prime killer. But a battery pack in those conditions? > 5000 charge cycles at 300 miles per charge adds up to about 1.5M miles. Under ideal driving / charge situations... * Hot areas like Spain. For instance, its know that batteries from EVs in hot area's tend to be much more degraded, then from cooler areas (make sense). * Did they fast charge those batteries = your going to cycle down a LOT more. Remember, those 6000 cycle for stuff like LiPo batteries are based upon slow charging. General tip for people with solar: Overspec your battery sizes, your going to thank me. * Did they always charge to 100%? What is the actual hidden reserve on a battery pack? Is it 5%, 10%? * How many times did they drive below the 20% range. There is a lot of elements that interact with your battery life. I mean, how many of use have thrown out perfectly good smartphone because the battery life became a disaster after only a few years. And the cost to replace the battery was not in proportion. Recently people driving to holiday here in Europe had fun times... 15 a 25min wait times at charge stations, and when they hit 80% they got kicked off the fast chargers (because after 80% it becomes very slow to charge up those last 20%). Slow charging was not allowed. So people needed to stop around every 60 a 70% of their battery range on their holiday trip. Wait 15 a 25 min for a charger, then wait another 45 min for their charge. While the guy with his ICE engine, stops, tanks in 5 minutes, goes for another 50% more distance.

wcoenen 1y ago
> Recently people driving to holiday here in Europe had fun times... 15 a 25min wait times at charge stations My last two holidays in Europe I drove an EV about 1000 km to a holiday destination, and back again. So far I have never had to queue to charge. I did notice that it is not unusual for a rest stop with only 2 to 4 fast chargers to be fully occupied. But if you use an app like ABRP to plan ahead, then it will tend to guide you to larger charging sites (e.g. 20 to 30 fast chargers of a few different brands). These charge planning apps also have live data about how many chargers are currently in use, so they will not send you to a fully occupied site if there are alternatives. YMMV and the situation will change every year of course, as more EVs are added. Norway is the most advanced in Europe when it comes to car electrification, so if there are issues I guess they will show up over there first.

TimByte 1y ago

I suspect in 30 years we'll be seeing million-mile EVs… but they'll probably be on their second or third infotainment system

SoftTalker 1y ago
They still have control arms, ball joints, shocks, tie rods, bearings, and rubber and plastic seals and other bits that will wear out, dry out, or degrade. Not to mention a lot of electronics with limited-life components such as capacitors. The oldest modern EVs are just now getting to the age where those sorts of repairs will start to become necessary.

torginus 1y ago

I think history will show people have vastly overestimated the durability of EV and not just because of batteries. Inverters have IGBTs and capacitors, both of which are wear items. I don't have an EV, but just got solar, and my installer told me that I can expect the inverter will need replacing in 15 years. And solar inverters push far less wattage at far more benign circumstances than cars' do, which push 100s of kWs peak in hot and cold, mud and rain.

fy20 1y ago
Don't forget these parts have been around in hybrids for multiple decades, and taxis often use hybrids (so higher milage, longer running times). In my country the most popular car for taxis and food delivery is the Prius gen 2, which was made from 2003 - 2009.
- eldaisfish 1y ago
  that's not a valid comparison. The highest voltage in a Prius battery is about 350 V. Most older Prius designs use a 200 V battery. A typical EV battery is also around 350 V but the current in and out is much higher. Many EVs use 800 V designs. The most important factors that destroy solid state devices like IGBTs are voltage and heat. IGBTs in wind turbines fail every ten years or so. Expect to see many EV inverters fail in the next decade.