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The one coherent theory I've heard is that the growth will come from all the new tasks done by the new software that we will have due to the severely increased
by marcosdumay 1y ago
The one coherent theory I've heard is that the growth will come from all the new tasks done by the new software that we will have due to the severely increased programmer productivity.
Except that software has a very iffy history of contributing to overall productivity, the impact isn't severe by any measure (and negative by a few), and on the level of investment happening now we would need to increase the (already huge) size of "software" on our economy several times.
- c-linkage 1y agoProcess efficiency is about doing less to achieve an objective than you used to. This is the idea behind LEAN. If companies keep adding tasks then this is the exact opposite of LEAN. The only way doing more tasks makes sense is if said company is expanding into different markets, but that can be challenging and distracting from the core business (a reason why many non-core tasks are now outsourced.) Software automates processes. Processes are currently designed with human decision makers in the loop. If you want software-enabled process to achieve maximum productivity then humans must be removed from the loop. This is the true objective of AI as it is being deployed and hyped today.
- marcosdumay 1y agoSoftware can do a lot of things. It can automate processes, it can help you optimize, it can make enough data accessible for you to not need a process, it can partition and generalize processes, it can control stuff... The relationship between software and productivity is really not as simple as you put. But also, the AI being hyped today is completely incapable of removing humans from a process. Several other forms of AI do this, the one on the hype doesn't.