4 ms·

The usable amount of AI, no matter how optimistic you are about current progression, has to be below the projections the entire AI economy is living on right no

The usable amount of AI, no matter how optimistic you are about current progression, has to be below the projections the entire AI economy is living on right now.

Matthyze 1y ago
A considerable group of people think AGI or even ASI is right around the corner
- caleb-allen 1y ago
  Sure, just as a considerable group of alchemists believed the recipe for gold was right around the corner
  - jayGlow 1y ago
    technically we can turn lead into gold now though it's not economical or scalable. so the alchemist were proven right in the end.
    - chemicalbye 1y ago
      > so the alchemist were proven right in the end. Except for the fact that it wasn't right around the corner???
- ponector 1y ago
  Coincidence, it is the same group trying to sell "AI" startup/services. Modern AI is not an intelligence. Wonder what crap they are calling AGI.
- lm28469 1y ago
  Remove the people with horses in the race and your "considerable" group becomes much much smaller.
- conartist6 1y ago
  I've never gotten a straight answer as to whether AGI is a good thing for humanity or the economy. Real AGI would be alive and would be capable of art and music and suffering and community, of course. So there would really be no more need for humans except to shovel the coal (or bodies of other humans) into the furnace that power the Truly Valuable members is society, the superintelligent AIs, which all other aspects of our society will be structured towards serving. Real AGI might realistically decide to go to war with us if we've leaned anything from current LLMs and their penchant for blackmail
  - cindyllm 1y ago
    [dead]
  - soiltype 1y ago
    That's all been thought of, yeah. No, AGI isn't a good thing. We should expect it to go badly, because there are so many ways it could be catastrophic. Bad outcomes might even be the default without intervention. We have virtually no idea how to drive good outcomes of AGI. AGI isn't being pursued because it will be good, it's being pursued because it is believed to be more-or-less inevitable, and everyone wants to be the one holding the reins for the best odds of survival and/or being crowned god-emperor (this is pretty obviously sam altman's angle for example)
    - diamond559 1y ago
      Is it believed to be inevitable, or are their careers just dependent on that being the case at all costs.
      - conartist6 1y ago
        Those seem the same to me
      - soiltype 1y ago
        it is believed by some to be inevitable, yes.
- freejazz 1y ago
  Don't a considerable group of people think the rapture is right around the corner? https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/12/08/about-four-in-ten-u-s-adults-believe-humanity-is-living-in-the-end-times/ https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/12/08/about-fou...
  - etempleton 1y ago
    Always.
  - paulryanrogers 1y ago
    A surprisingly sticky belief when taught young enough. Anxiety about having been left behind every time you come home to an empty house is just a bonus. Thankfully education about physics, first principles, and critical thinking got me out from under it. Hopefully they can do the same for the rest--if we get them young enough.
- fuzzfactor 1y ago
  If it was that close I think they would have made well over half their money back by now . . .
fuzzfactor 1y ago
You've got to figure that the mega-capitalists have so much more discretionary accumulated resources relative to government than ever. Other than government, is there anybody else who can loosen the purse strings a little bit and have it not act as a temporary stimulant as long as it lasts? Whether they wish it would last or even provide any benefit to the average person, seems like there are plenty who wouldn't wish more prosperity on anyone who doesn't already have it :\ The only real way for long-term growth would be to plant seeds rather than dispense mere artificial stimulants. Unless AI makes the general public way more than capitalists have spent, it wouldn't be worth any increase in cost whatsoever for things like energy or hardware. Even non-AI software could become unaffordable if their labor costs go up enough too keep top people from being poached by AI companies flush with cash. I bet even the real estate near the data centers gets more unaffordable, at the same time clocking a win for the local economy due to the increased cash flow and tax revenue. Except all that additional cash is flowing out of peoples' pockets not in :\
gopher_space 1y ago
Looking at the actual job I'm leveraging software to do, we've progressed past the point where I can do everything I want to do in-house on my own hardware. The bottlenecks in my processes are now human, procedural, and there for a reason. It feels like the AI economy is being propped up by the idea that we're right around the corner from a fabled C-suite promised land where "labor" is unnecessary, but we've already been there for like a year now if you don't need a machine to explain your own business model to you, and it's basically free.

The usable amount of AI, no matter how optimistic you are about current progression, has to be below the projections the entire AI economy is living on right now.

Matthyze 1y ago

A considerable group of people think AGI or even ASI is right around the corner

caleb-allen 1y ago
Sure, just as a considerable group of alchemists believed the recipe for gold was right around the corner
- jayGlow 1y ago
  technically we can turn lead into gold now though it's not economical or scalable. so the alchemist were proven right in the end.
  - chemicalbye 1y ago
    > so the alchemist were proven right in the end. Except for the fact that it wasn't right around the corner???
ponector 1y ago
Coincidence, it is the same group trying to sell "AI" startup/services. Modern AI is not an intelligence. Wonder what crap they are calling AGI.
lm28469 1y ago
Remove the people with horses in the race and your "considerable" group becomes much much smaller.
conartist6 1y ago
I've never gotten a straight answer as to whether AGI is a good thing for humanity or the economy. Real AGI would be alive and would be capable of art and music and suffering and community, of course. So there would really be no more need for humans except to shovel the coal (or bodies of other humans) into the furnace that power the Truly Valuable members is society, the superintelligent AIs, which all other aspects of our society will be structured towards serving. Real AGI might realistically decide to go to war with us if we've leaned anything from current LLMs and their penchant for blackmail
- cindyllm 1y ago
  [dead]
- soiltype 1y ago
  That's all been thought of, yeah. No, AGI isn't a good thing. We should expect it to go badly, because there are so many ways it could be catastrophic. Bad outcomes might even be the default without intervention. We have virtually no idea how to drive good outcomes of AGI. AGI isn't being pursued because it will be good, it's being pursued because it is believed to be more-or-less inevitable, and everyone wants to be the one holding the reins for the best odds of survival and/or being crowned god-emperor (this is pretty obviously sam altman's angle for example)
  - diamond559 1y ago
    Is it believed to be inevitable, or are their careers just dependent on that being the case at all costs.
    - conartist6 1y ago
      Those seem the same to me
    - soiltype 1y ago
      it is believed by some to be inevitable, yes.
freejazz 1y ago
Don't a considerable group of people think the rapture is right around the corner? https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/12/08/about-four-in-ten-u-s-adults-believe-humanity-is-living-in-the-end-times/ https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/12/08/about-fou...
- etempleton 1y ago
  Always.
- paulryanrogers 1y ago
  A surprisingly sticky belief when taught young enough. Anxiety about having been left behind every time you come home to an empty house is just a bonus. Thankfully education about physics, first principles, and critical thinking got me out from under it. Hopefully they can do the same for the rest--if we get them young enough.
fuzzfactor 1y ago
If it was that close I think they would have made well over half their money back by now . . .

fuzzfactor 1y ago

You've got to figure that the mega-capitalists have so much more discretionary accumulated resources relative to government than ever. Other than government, is there anybody else who can loosen the purse strings a little bit and have it not act as a temporary stimulant as long as it lasts? Whether they wish it would last or even provide any benefit to the average person, seems like there are plenty who wouldn't wish more prosperity on anyone who doesn't already have it :\ The only real way for long-term growth would be to plant seeds rather than dispense mere artificial stimulants. Unless AI makes the general public way more than capitalists have spent, it wouldn't be worth any increase in cost whatsoever for things like energy or hardware. Even non-AI software could become unaffordable if their labor costs go up enough too keep top people from being poached by AI companies flush with cash. I bet even the real estate near the data centers gets more unaffordable, at the same time clocking a win for the local economy due to the increased cash flow and tax revenue. Except all that additional cash is flowing out of peoples' pockets not in :\

gopher_space 1y ago

Looking at the actual job I'm leveraging software to do, we've progressed past the point where I can do everything I want to do in-house on my own hardware. The bottlenecks in my processes are now human, procedural, and there for a reason. It feels like the AI economy is being propped up by the idea that we're right around the corner from a fabled C-suite promised land where "labor" is unnecessary, but we've already been there for like a year now if you don't need a machine to explain your own business model to you, and it's basically free.