5 ms·

You really think the AI bubble can be sustained for another three years?

dylan604 1y ago
15 months. Mid-terms are next November. After that, legacy cannot be changed by election. If POTUS loses control of either/both chambers, he might have some 'splanin to do. If POTUS keeps control and/or makes further gains, there might not be an election in 3 years.
- Hikikomori 1y ago
  Gerrymandering in Texas and elsewhere they might stay in power, if they do it's unlikely to change. Basically speed running a fascist takeover.
  - dylan604 1y ago
    Interesting to see if California follows suit. Governor Newsom has his eye on the 2028 prize it seems. If the Dems do not wake up and start playing the same game the GOP is playing, they will never win. Taking the higher ground is such a nice concept, but it's also what losers say to feel good about not winning. Meanwhile, those willing to break/bend/change rules to ensure they continue to win will, well, continue to win.
    - SpicyLemonZest 1y ago
      I think it's important to remember how California got here. In the 2000 redistricting, the state legislature agreed to conduct an extreme bipartisan gerrymander, drawing every seat to be as safe as possible so that no incumbent could get voted out without losing a primary. This was widely understood to be a conspiracy of politicians against democratic accountability, and thus voters decided (with the support of many advocacy orgs and every major newspaper in the state) to put an end to it. That's not the redistricting Newsom wants for 2028, and I tend to agree that Dems have to play the game right now, but I'd really like to see them present some sort of story for why it's not going to happen again.
    - lenerdenator 1y ago
      > Governor Newsom has his eye on the 2028 prize it seems This makes me feel dread. I just don't see him dragging moderates in the middle of the country to the polls, or getting people in the leftist part of the Democratic Party to not "but but but" their way out of voting against fascism again. Oh well.
  - smackeyacky 1y ago
    It's not really a speed run. The seeds were planted after Nixon resigned and it was decided to re-shape the media landscape and move the overton window rightwards in the 1970s, dismantling social democracy across the west and leading to a gradual reversal of the norms of governance in the US (see Newt Gingrich). It's been gradual, slow and methodical. It has definitely accelerated but in retrospect the intent was there from the very beginning.
    - mathiaspoint 1y ago
      The way most of you define "fascism" America has always been fascist with a brief perturbation where we tried Democracy and some Communism. If you see it that way this is just a reversion to the mean.
      - smackeyacky 1y ago
        True. We have collectively forgotten segregation was a thing in the US. Perhaps it has always been a right wing country that flirts with fascism.
        dylan604 1y ago
        The Constitution was clearly written for rich land owning white men first of thought, and everything else being left out or only in fractions. They added some checks and balances as a hand wavy idea of trying to stay away from autocracy, but they kind of made them toothless. I'd guess they just didn't have the imagination that people would willingly allow someone to go back towards autocracy since they were fighting so hard to leave it.
        mathiaspoint 1y ago
        Every time you claim to go after the "rich" you just go after normal people. I think everyone has figured that out.
        fzeroracer 1y ago
- tick_tock_tick 1y ago
  > he might have some 'splanin to do About what? Like seriously what would they even do other then try and lame duck him? The big issue is Dem approval ratings are even lower then Trumps so how the hell are they going to gain any seats?
  - dylan604 1y ago
    Gerrymandering helps. Just look at Texas
    - chasd00 1y ago
      And California
    - tick_tock_tick 1y ago
      I mean is that going to be possible or even help them? I think whole can of worms is going to go real bad for the Democrats the states they control are mostly already district-ed fully blue or almost fully blue while the red states have way more possible adjustments. Add in the fact that everyone has been moving to red states for the last decade the seat re-balancing of the house is really going to favor Republicans.
icedchai 1y ago
Possibly. For comparison, how long did the dot-com bubble last? From roughly 1995 to early 2000.
tick_tock_tick 1y ago
Honestly it's not really bubbling like we expected revenues are growing way too fast income from AI investment is coming back to these companies way sooner then anyone thought possible. At this rate we have another couple of 20+% years in the stock market for there to be anything left of a "bubble". Nvidia the poster-child of this "bubble" has been getting effectively cheaper every day.

15 months. Mid-terms are next November. After that, legacy cannot be changed by election. If POTUS loses control of either/both chambers, he might have some 'splanin to do. If POTUS keeps control and/or makes further gains, there might not be an election in 3 years.

Hikikomori 1y ago
Gerrymandering in Texas and elsewhere they might stay in power, if they do it's unlikely to change. Basically speed running a fascist takeover.
- dylan604 1y ago
  Interesting to see if California follows suit. Governor Newsom has his eye on the 2028 prize it seems. If the Dems do not wake up and start playing the same game the GOP is playing, they will never win. Taking the higher ground is such a nice concept, but it's also what losers say to feel good about not winning. Meanwhile, those willing to break/bend/change rules to ensure they continue to win will, well, continue to win.
  - SpicyLemonZest 1y ago
    I think it's important to remember how California got here. In the 2000 redistricting, the state legislature agreed to conduct an extreme bipartisan gerrymander, drawing every seat to be as safe as possible so that no incumbent could get voted out without losing a primary. This was widely understood to be a conspiracy of politicians against democratic accountability, and thus voters decided (with the support of many advocacy orgs and every major newspaper in the state) to put an end to it. That's not the redistricting Newsom wants for 2028, and I tend to agree that Dems have to play the game right now, but I'd really like to see them present some sort of story for why it's not going to happen again.
  - lenerdenator 1y ago
    > Governor Newsom has his eye on the 2028 prize it seems This makes me feel dread. I just don't see him dragging moderates in the middle of the country to the polls, or getting people in the leftist part of the Democratic Party to not "but but but" their way out of voting against fascism again. Oh well.
- smackeyacky 1y ago
  It's not really a speed run. The seeds were planted after Nixon resigned and it was decided to re-shape the media landscape and move the overton window rightwards in the 1970s, dismantling social democracy across the west and leading to a gradual reversal of the norms of governance in the US (see Newt Gingrich). It's been gradual, slow and methodical. It has definitely accelerated but in retrospect the intent was there from the very beginning.
  - mathiaspoint 1y ago
    The way most of you define "fascism" America has always been fascist with a brief perturbation where we tried Democracy and some Communism. If you see it that way this is just a reversion to the mean.
    - smackeyacky 1y ago
      True. We have collectively forgotten segregation was a thing in the US. Perhaps it has always been a right wing country that flirts with fascism.
      - dylan604 1y ago
        The Constitution was clearly written for rich land owning white men first of thought, and everything else being left out or only in fractions. They added some checks and balances as a hand wavy idea of trying to stay away from autocracy, but they kind of made them toothless. I'd guess they just didn't have the imagination that people would willingly allow someone to go back towards autocracy since they were fighting so hard to leave it.
        mathiaspoint 1y ago
        Every time you claim to go after the "rich" you just go after normal people. I think everyone has figured that out.
      - fzeroracer 1y ago
tick_tock_tick 1y ago
> he might have some 'splanin to do About what? Like seriously what would they even do other then try and lame duck him? The big issue is Dem approval ratings are even lower then Trumps so how the hell are they going to gain any seats?
- dylan604 1y ago
  Gerrymandering helps. Just look at Texas
  - chasd00 1y ago
    And California
  - tick_tock_tick 1y ago
    I mean is that going to be possible or even help them? I think whole can of worms is going to go real bad for the Democrats the states they control are mostly already district-ed fully blue or almost fully blue while the red states have way more possible adjustments. Add in the fact that everyone has been moving to red states for the last decade the seat re-balancing of the house is really going to favor Republicans.

icedchai 1y ago

Possibly. For comparison, how long did the dot-com bubble last? From roughly 1995 to early 2000.

tick_tock_tick 1y ago

Honestly it's not really bubbling like we expected revenues are growing way too fast income from AI investment is coming back to these companies way sooner then anyone thought possible. At this rate we have another couple of 20+% years in the stock market for there to be anything left of a "bubble". Nvidia the poster-child of this "bubble" has been getting effectively cheaper every day.