5 ms·
Most reasoned take is directly from the paper itself: "We strongly emphasize that this paper is largely a pedagogical exercise, with interesting discoveries an
by jpcompartir 1y ago
Most reasoned take is directly from the paper itself:
"We strongly emphasize that this paper is largely a pedagogical exercise, with interesting discoveries and strange serendipities, worthy of a record in the scientific literature. By far the most likely outcome will be that 3I/ATLAS is a completely natural interstellar object, probably a comet, and the authors await the astronomical data to support this likely origin."
- King-Aaron 1y agoIt makes me sad that so many people are seemingly so aggressive against Loeb and his takes on this stuff. Whether things might be aliens or not, people get so upset whenever it's even mentioned as a thought experiment. We should be able to have a bit of fun here and there.
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- actinium226 1y agoI think if it was framed more as fiction it would get a better read. The title and the abstract suggest they take this possibility seriously, which is ridiculous.
- nprateem 1y agoThe fact you think aliens are ridiculous in an infinite universe is more ridiculous.
- nkrisc 1y agoSeems equally ridiculous to expect we’d ever actually see aliens in a spatially and temporally infinite universe.
- actinium226 1y agoIt's not that I find aliens ridiculous, I find it ridiculous to attribute 3I/ATLAS to aliens and I find it especially ridiculous that it's coming from Harvard. They have billions of dollars in endowment and this is what they waste their time on? Maybe the administration was right to pick a fight with them.
- quickthrowman 1y agoAliens existing is not ridiculous, the hubristic idea that aliens are visiting the solar system is what’s ridiculous, plus all the sensationalism around aliens from someone who should know better.
- lloeki 1y ago> if it was framed more as fiction At some point, however fact-based, every speculation is a form of fiction, so the line is blurry ... > The title and the abstract suggest they take this possibility seriously, which is ridiculous. ... but I'd say it's I think the idea is to take some serious and very realistic bits that have a vanishingly low probability ... > We show that 3I/ATLAS approaches surprisingly close to Venus, Mars and Jupiter, with a probability of ≲ 0.005% ... and then walk from there as rigorously as possible. As they say, "largely a pedagogical exercise". There's still a line between the hardest hard sci-fi story about a Boltzmann brain and a fact-based thought experiment computing probabilities for a giant marshmallow to spontaneously appear in the vacuum of space.
- falcor84 1y agoI'm actually unsure what you mean - what is that line? Why aren't both just exercises in probabilistic reasoning?
- actinium226 1y agoRama by Arthur C Clarke is a work of fiction, there's no blurry line there. > We show that 3I/ATLAS approaches surprisingly close to Venus, Mars and Jupiter, with a probability of ≲ 0.005% a) What does this even mean? If you throw a dart on a dartboard, anywhere it lands will have some probability. 1/200 doesn't seem that low. b) It's the height of intellectual laziness and chicanery to go from not-that-low-of-probability to 'aliens' They're free to make these claims. I'm also free to laugh at how ridiculous it is. Now, if this thing had some précise shape, or rotational speed, or we saw it adding or subtracting delta V, or if it did gravity assists from multiple planets (not just 'flew kinda close to a couple of them'), now that would be interesting.
- dlenski 1y agoIf you read the paper, you'll find there are many improbable occurrences, rather than just this one. > > We show that 3I/ATLAS approaches surprisingly close to Venus, Mars and Jupiter, with a probability of ≲ 0.005% > > a) What does this even mean? If you throw a dart on a dartboard, anywhere it lands will have some probability. 1/200 doesn't seem that low. Not 1 in 200 here. 1 in 20,000.
- 827a 1y agoI think its totally fair to be aggressive in pushing back against abstracts like "and hypothesize that this object could be technological, and possibly hostile as would be expected from the ’Dark Forest’ resolution to the ’Fermi Paradox’". There is zero testing of either the hypothesis that it is technological or that it is hostile. At best, the methodology he employs in the paper could be argued to test the hypothesis that its path through our solar system is synthetic and intentional; but that's it, and that's also not remotely close to what he said.
- druskacik 1y agoIntentionality of the path is a good prerequisite of the object being technological, and its hostility is a possibility given the Dark Forest resolution is true (which we can't prove nor disprove). The sentence sounds a bit sensationalist but it seems scientifically valid to me, considering this is an area where we have little more than a bunch of unprovable hypotheses.
- gopher_space 1y agoMy favorite aspect of Dark Forest is that simply coming up with the concept also provides a resolution to the Fermi Paradox.
- krapp 1y agoIt isn't a good resolution, because it assumes all intelligent species in the universe must think and act according to the same rationale. But the one example of an intelligent species we're aware of (humanity) doesn't think and act this way - we've been blindly sending signals and probes out for decades now, and anyone observing our planet would probably notice obvious tech signatures.
- zeven7 1y agoThe ones who behave that way don’t last long enough to be witnessed by new civilizations like humanity, hence the darkness
- timuckun 1y agoHe is the boy who cried wolf at this point. Every interstellar object is (oops I mean could be) alien artefact. Also he raised a bunch of funds to dig one up under the ocean and got nothing.
- tlb 1y agoWhen and if alien life is discovered, there’s a high chance the discoverer will be someone who’s spent their career searching for it, rather than someone just stumbling across ironclad proof one fine day. I’m inclined to let those searchers speculate in public. If society’s rule is that you can’t even speculate about X until you have proof, it will hold back science significantly. History has many such examples of forbidden speculation leading to long delays.
- exe34 1y agoAny idea why he gets so much pushback, when string theorists get a pass? Is it because "alien tech" is more easy to understand as a concept than Calabi-Yau manifolds?
- busssard 1y agobecause of UFO Conspiracy Theorists. When someone says Alien in a serious context, most people immediately associate it with UFO nutjobs. String theory has not really made its debut in the conspiracy crowd afaik. I think "Quantum-___" has done so, especially with the "collapse of the wavefunction through the observer" it has so many esoteric people raving. String theory is so meaningless to the normal person.
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- s1artibartfast 1y agoI think it comes from a place of insecurity. people get sensitive about it because all astronomy is pointless and arbitrary, so someone having outlandish fun while doing it runs the risk of highlighting this fact.
- interstice 1y agoI agree, I mean something like this only has to happen once in our lifetime for everything we know to change overnight. I’m not saying believe anything and everything at face value, but at least question whether immediate knee jerk dismissal of any idea you think you’ve seen before is actually considering the nuance of the specific thing in question or just a learned response.
- mc32 1y agoBecause that supposition is sensationalist -in modern online parlance, clickbait. It’s as ridiculous as proposing that it could naturally be made of up of M&Ms or that monkeys built the ancient Egyptian pyramids.
- reaperducer 1y agoit could naturally be made of up of M&Ms That's silly. It's made up of Milky Ways.
- quickthrowman 1y agoBeing repeatedly sensational about something like aliens will make people annoyed after a while, see the boy who cried wolf, etc.
- DennisP 1y agoThough we should also bear in mind that the wolf in that story eventually showed up.
- aaron695 1y ago[dead]