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Totally agree with the off-shore component of this. I'm already going to have to break a task down into clear detail and resolve any anticipated blocker myself

Totally agree with the off-shore component of this. I'm already going to have to break a task down into clear detail and resolve any anticipated blocker myself upfront to avoid multi-timezone multi-day back and forth. Now that I'm practiced at that, the off-shored part is no longer valuable

sitkack 1y ago
The unemployment in India is going to be catastrophic. Geopolitical.
- vaidhy 1y ago
  You know senior developers can also be off-shored, right?
  - benreesman 1y ago
    Blowing away the junior -> senior pipeline would, on average, hit every country the same. Though it raises an interesting point: if a country like India or China did make the investment in hiring, paying, and mentoring junior people but e.g. the US didn't, then you could see a massive shift in the global center of gravity around software expertise in 10 years (plus or minus). Someone is going to be the best at planning for and investing in the future on this, and someone is going to maximally wishful thinking / short-term thinking this, and seductive-but-not-really-there vibe coding is probably going to be a major pivot point there.
    - azinman2 1y ago
      This is such an important point. Not sure about India, which is still very market forces driven, but china can just force its employers to do whatever is of strategic importance. That’s long gone in the US. Market forces here will only ever optimize for short term game, shooting ourselves in the chest.
- FirmwareBurner 1y ago
  Unlikely. Microsoft had layoffs everywhere except India. There they keep hiring more. As song as the can keep upskilling themselves while still being much cheaper than US workers they won't fear unemployment. Just yesterday I saw on X a video of a Miami hotel where the check-in procedure was via a video call to a receptionist in India.
  - sitkack 1y ago
    Six months from now, that singular worker if they are still employed, will manage a high number of receptionist avatars. And then they themselves will be replaced. It will still lead to a massive collapse in the labor market and with all of that excess labor, existing jobs while being overworked will still see flat to decreasing wages.
    - FirmwareBurner 1y ago
      You overestimate how chatbots can replace people.
      - sitkack 1y ago
        Most people underestimate how strongly capital wants to displace labor, even if the outcomes are demonstrably worse. Esp in a captured scenario like hotel reception, you have already booked, you aren't going anywhere else.
        FirmwareBurner 1y ago
        If that were true, automatic coffee vending machines would have made baristas unemployed a long time age.
- ryanjshaw 1y ago
  Many companies that see themselves as non-technical at the core prefer building solutions with an army of intermediate developers that are hot swappable. Having highly skilled developers is a risk for them.

sitkack 1y ago

The unemployment in India is going to be catastrophic. Geopolitical.

vaidhy 1y ago
You know senior developers can also be off-shored, right?
- benreesman 1y ago
  Blowing away the junior -> senior pipeline would, on average, hit every country the same. Though it raises an interesting point: if a country like India or China did make the investment in hiring, paying, and mentoring junior people but e.g. the US didn't, then you could see a massive shift in the global center of gravity around software expertise in 10 years (plus or minus). Someone is going to be the best at planning for and investing in the future on this, and someone is going to maximally wishful thinking / short-term thinking this, and seductive-but-not-really-there vibe coding is probably going to be a major pivot point there.
  - azinman2 1y ago
    This is such an important point. Not sure about India, which is still very market forces driven, but china can just force its employers to do whatever is of strategic importance. That’s long gone in the US. Market forces here will only ever optimize for short term game, shooting ourselves in the chest.
FirmwareBurner 1y ago
Unlikely. Microsoft had layoffs everywhere except India. There they keep hiring more. As song as the can keep upskilling themselves while still being much cheaper than US workers they won't fear unemployment. Just yesterday I saw on X a video of a Miami hotel where the check-in procedure was via a video call to a receptionist in India.
- sitkack 1y ago
  Six months from now, that singular worker if they are still employed, will manage a high number of receptionist avatars. And then they themselves will be replaced. It will still lead to a massive collapse in the labor market and with all of that excess labor, existing jobs while being overworked will still see flat to decreasing wages.
  - FirmwareBurner 1y ago
    You overestimate how chatbots can replace people.
    - sitkack 1y ago
      Most people underestimate how strongly capital wants to displace labor, even if the outcomes are demonstrably worse. Esp in a captured scenario like hotel reception, you have already booked, you aren't going anywhere else.
      - FirmwareBurner 1y ago
        If that were true, automatic coffee vending machines would have made baristas unemployed a long time age.
ryanjshaw 1y ago
Many companies that see themselves as non-technical at the core prefer building solutions with an army of intermediate developers that are hot swappable. Having highly skilled developers is a risk for them.