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Zuckerberg: 'superintelligence is now in sight' as Meta lavishes billions on AI

9 points by beardyw 1y ago

jalapenos 1y ago
I'm interested other people's view on this, do you feel the shape of the curve is like this, like a hockey stick of capability over time? I just don't feel that. Using all AI tool's to the hilt, the curve feels more like a tapering-off one to me. Once we've fully applied what's been invented, I think we'll be in exponential decay not growth, of its utility
- ggm 1y ago
  No. I think Zuck has reached his peter principle some time ago and is deep in Dunning Kruger territory: he isn't competent to speak about AGI or intelligence. So, "Zuck said" as an appeal to authority doesn't move me an inch. Meta can afford to (and will) blow wads of money on this, for little or no actual benefit. Remember, he was an expert about immersive goggle experience too. We're all living in Goggle world now, aren't we? You read this as an avatar, right?
- antondd 1y ago
  The curve has always been the bog standard S curve of technological development. In Paul Saffo’s words: “…we routinely overestimate short-term change and underestimate long-term change.”
nehal3m 1y ago
Normal intelligence isn't even in sight. Sure, LLM's do some useful stuff but they can't be described as intelligent. Zuckerberg and all the other SV overlords continue to pretend they're at the bottom floor of a growth market to keep their PTE high. The result is a big honkin' hype train.
richardatlarge 1y ago
The prophet speaks. Now you know what to bet against. Not sure he’s ever seen anything in the future beyond his empire’s inevitable demise
o_m 1y ago
The human brain consumes as much energy as a incandescent light bulb. There are obviously something fundamental we don't understand yet. LLMs are neat, and throwing more energy on them seem to make them better, but it seems unlikely it will lead to something completely different as more compute is used.
cedws 1y ago
I know one person who's winning in this race, and he often wears a leather jacket.
tuesdaynight 1y ago
Maybe I'm wrong, but besides Facebook, which was not a novel tech, what have Zuckerberg invented? Could we consider the Meta glasses an invention? Not saying that his opinions are not valid, but he is a great businessman, not a great inventor.
hughJuh 1y ago
Anecdote: last week a random GPU cloud host contacts me with a huge deal on GPU rentals. Got my deets from a VC I pitched to. After a minute I replies to point out nvidia sells out but a nobody cloud host has enough bandwidth to offer a nobody project steep discounts? Card supply isn't being saturated. They suggest I am on to something and ought to trade on that info accordingly. Nvidia is funding card buys to juice its own stock but the demand isn't there to justify it. Just more corny finance schemes. No ideas coming out of people who are, really if you take a minute, haven't created anything. They picked up 1960s and 70s tech and polished it up, made it higher resolution. But the physics and fundamental manufacturing processes, know how are 60+ years old.
andrewstuart 1y ago
Zuck was also a true believer in the Metaverse.

9 points by beardyw 1y ago

I'm interested other people's view on this, do you feel the shape of the curve is like this, like a hockey stick of capability over time? I just don't feel that. Using all AI tool's to the hilt, the curve feels more like a tapering-off one to me. Once we've fully applied what's been invented, I think we'll be in exponential decay not growth, of its utility

ggm 1y ago
No. I think Zuck has reached his peter principle some time ago and is deep in Dunning Kruger territory: he isn't competent to speak about AGI or intelligence. So, "Zuck said" as an appeal to authority doesn't move me an inch. Meta can afford to (and will) blow wads of money on this, for little or no actual benefit. Remember, he was an expert about immersive goggle experience too. We're all living in Goggle world now, aren't we? You read this as an avatar, right?
antondd 1y ago
The curve has always been the bog standard S curve of technological development. In Paul Saffo’s words: “…we routinely overestimate short-term change and underestimate long-term change.”

nehal3m 1y ago

Normal intelligence isn't even in sight. Sure, LLM's do some useful stuff but they can't be described as intelligent. Zuckerberg and all the other SV overlords continue to pretend they're at the bottom floor of a growth market to keep their PTE high. The result is a big honkin' hype train.

richardatlarge 1y ago

The prophet speaks. Now you know what to bet against. Not sure he’s ever seen anything in the future beyond his empire’s inevitable demise

o_m 1y ago

The human brain consumes as much energy as a incandescent light bulb. There are obviously something fundamental we don't understand yet. LLMs are neat, and throwing more energy on them seem to make them better, but it seems unlikely it will lead to something completely different as more compute is used.

cedws 1y ago

I know one person who's winning in this race, and he often wears a leather jacket.

tuesdaynight 1y ago

Maybe I'm wrong, but besides Facebook, which was not a novel tech, what have Zuckerberg invented? Could we consider the Meta glasses an invention? Not saying that his opinions are not valid, but he is a great businessman, not a great inventor.

hughJuh 1y ago

Anecdote: last week a random GPU cloud host contacts me with a huge deal on GPU rentals. Got my deets from a VC I pitched to. After a minute I replies to point out nvidia sells out but a nobody cloud host has enough bandwidth to offer a nobody project steep discounts? Card supply isn't being saturated. They suggest I am on to something and ought to trade on that info accordingly. Nvidia is funding card buys to juice its own stock but the demand isn't there to justify it. Just more corny finance schemes. No ideas coming out of people who are, really if you take a minute, haven't created anything. They picked up 1960s and 70s tech and polished it up, made it higher resolution. But the physics and fundamental manufacturing processes, know how are 60+ years old.

andrewstuart 1y ago

Zuck was also a true believer in the Metaverse.