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Tesla Q2 2025 Update [pdf]

72 points by bratao 1y ago

mixdup 1y ago
The buried lede I hadn't seen in any headlines on the business news websites: 89% decrease in free cash flow. Ooof
- TheAlchemist 1y ago
  And this is *before* the regulatory credits went away 3 weeks ago, and *before* 7500$ / car subsides go away end of September. In Q3 Tesla will start seriously bleeding money.
  - mgiannopoulos 1y ago
    Do you mean Q4? Q3 will probably have good numbers due to people rushing to take advantage of the EV credit.
    - jjfoooo4 1y ago
      Wouldn't that behavior already be reflected in these numbers?
    - TheAlchemist 1y ago
      Thing is, Tesla is not making much on each car they sell now, given how many discounts they need to offer. They were making a lot of money on regulatory credits, but these are likely to be gone already (in theory the companies should continue to buy them, but the Bill signed by Trump removes any penalties for not doing so effective immediately). So yeah, sales may jump in the US (and will continue to crater in EU and China), but that won't do much for their profits. It can only help 'move the metal' as they say.
      - mgiannopoulos 1y ago
        China sales are recovering actually https://www.shop4tesla.com/en/blogs/news/tesla-china-verkaeufe-juni-2025 https://www.shop4tesla.com/en/blogs/news/tesla-china-verkaeu...
- DoesntMatter22 1y ago
  [flagged]
  - breve 1y ago
    The business is suffering. Tesla has seen a large fall in European EV market share: https://eu-evs.com/marketShare/ALL/Groups/Line/All-time-by-Quarters https://eu-evs.com/marketShare/ALL/Groups/Line/All-time-by-Q... The decline corresponds with Musk interfering in European politics and performing fascist salutes at a political rally. Europeans aren't on board with swasticars. The brand damage Musk has done can only start to be repaired after he leaves Tesla. The bad reputation is going to stick until then.
    - DoesntMatter22 1y ago
      [flagged]
      - neogodless 1y ago
        Did we read the same article? > Tesla sales continued to go down in Europe in the first half of the year. The American EV maker recorded a 33% year-over-year drop in sales from January to June. > From January to June, Tesla sold 108,878 cars in the region, while Volkswagen moved 133,465 EVs, a massive 78% year-over-year increase. Look for the data table and note the heading "Difference from H1 2024" > Overall, the European EV market increased by 24% year-over-year
      - defrost 1y ago
        That's a highly selective read when the data shows Tesla dropping for the past six months, sales declining, even in June, and last month (June) likely not yet having a complete up to date third party picture across the board. The part left out from your statement about June: but that wasn’t enough to end the first half of the year in the first spot. In fact, out of the top five best-selling EV makers in June, Tesla was the only one to see a drop. With 32,605 cars sold, Tesla sales went down by 21% year-over-year in Europe. Meanwhile, Volkswagen went up 9.%, BMW by 16%, Skoda by 189% and Renault by 23%. confirms that Europeans are indeed moving away from "swasticars" in general despite some Europeans still buying a few.
e40 1y ago
Who would have thought that alienating yoyr target market could impact sales?? I hope the purchase of twitter and the subsequent leverage he has on politics and government is worth it. /s
- cyberge99 1y ago
  He literally alienated BOTH American political constituencies.
- darth_avocado 1y ago
  You’re not supposed to bite the hand that feeds you? surprised pikachu face
- DoesntMatter22 1y ago
  Realistically the biggest thing that's impacting their ability to sell their cars is high interest rates. The company still has 37 billion in cash on hand and has a great backlog of products.
  - neogodless 1y ago
    https://www.automotivedive.com/news/gm-nissan-ford-tesla-bmw-toyota-vw-q2-2025-sales-tracker/752505/ https://www.automotivedive.com/news/gm-nissan-ford-tesla-bmw... At least in the U.S., the big 3 (Toyota, GM, Ford) all showed Year-over-year growth of automotive sales in Q2. https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/q2-2025-ev-sales/ https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/q2-2025-ev-sales/ Pretty interesting chart to be seen here. Why are interest rates affecting Tesla more than any other OEM?
    - DoesntMatter22 1y ago
      From what you linked, Audi is down 19%, Rivian down 22%, Volkswagen down 20%. Audi and Rivian are both luxury brands and so is Tesla. Rivian is also a higher end car brand and they are getting cooked, down far more than Tesla, and don't suffer any of the Elon stigma. The brands you mentioned are bargain brands. Tesla is a luxury vehicle. Answer seems pretty obvious. Also Tesla is not generally going to sell to apartment renters very often as there typically are not places to charge, so I personally think part of it is that there is a diminishing pool of possibile customers.
GodelNumbering 1y ago
A lot of bad news - Total revenue fell by 12% year-over-year (16% contraction in the core automotive segment) - Operating margin fell to just 4.1% (was 6.3% a year ago) - For a second straight quarter, production significantly outpaced deliveries. Global unsold inventories now at 24 days of supply (was 18 days a year ago) - Free cash flow collapsed by nearly 89.1% to just $146 million source: https://www.signalbloom.ai/news/TSLA/teslas-q2-revenue-drops-12-amid-margin-squeeze-pivots-to-ai-future https://www.signalbloom.ai/news/TSLA/teslas-q2-revenue-drops... (disclaimer: I run this)
- financetechbro 1y ago
  [flagged]
  - deleted 1y ago
    [deleted]
- bryanlarsen 1y ago
  Despite all the bad news and missteps, Tesla is still profitable with tons of money in the bank. Lots of room to turn things around. The company is not going away any time soon. That trillion dollar market cap, OTOH? That seems super vulnerable.
  - wredcoll 1y ago
    How much profit is from carbon credits?
    - akmarinov 1y ago
      $500 million
    - bryanlarsen 1y ago
      Carbon credits aren't profit, they're revenue. You have to ship a car to claim the credits, they're not free money.
akmarinov 1y ago
They have 5 models that they sell, but only 2 are available to order in Europe, lol
- 7e 1y ago
  And 0 models are desired by European buyers.
cyberge99 1y ago
Did I miss the applied part of their primary goal “to procvide affordable vehicles”.
2OEH8eoCRo0 1y ago
When does pumping that stock up go from fiduciary duty to fraud? Musk is bad for the company yet Musk as CEO props up the meme stock. Is it fraud to keep on Musk then?
- ceejayoz 1y ago
  > When does pumping that stock up go from fiduciary duty to fraud? Musk has already been in hot water more than once for that in the past. https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/13/business/elon-musk-sec-fine-demand https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/13/business/elon-musk-sec-fine-d... "In 2018 the SEC reached a settlement with Musk and Tesla after finding that Musk had deceived investors when he tweeted out that he had “funding secured” to take Tesla private. Under that settlement Tesla and Musk both paid fines of $20 million, and Musk agreed to have his tweets about material events at the company approved by others at Tesla. He also gave up the title of chairman of Tesla, although he retained the CEO title." "In April 2022, Musk disclosed he had purchased 9% of the shares of Twitter ahead of his purchase of the entire company later that year. The SEC sent him a letter wanting to know why he had not disclosed those purchases within 10 days of crossing the 5% threshold of shares owned, as required by securities law."

72 points by bratao 1y ago

mixdup 1y ago

The buried lede I hadn't seen in any headlines on the business news websites: 89% decrease in free cash flow. Ooof

TheAlchemist 1y ago
And this is *before* the regulatory credits went away 3 weeks ago, and *before* 7500$ / car subsides go away end of September. In Q3 Tesla will start seriously bleeding money.
- mgiannopoulos 1y ago
  Do you mean Q4? Q3 will probably have good numbers due to people rushing to take advantage of the EV credit.
  - jjfoooo4 1y ago
    Wouldn't that behavior already be reflected in these numbers?
  - TheAlchemist 1y ago
    Thing is, Tesla is not making much on each car they sell now, given how many discounts they need to offer. They were making a lot of money on regulatory credits, but these are likely to be gone already (in theory the companies should continue to buy them, but the Bill signed by Trump removes any penalties for not doing so effective immediately). So yeah, sales may jump in the US (and will continue to crater in EU and China), but that won't do much for their profits. It can only help 'move the metal' as they say.
    - mgiannopoulos 1y ago
      China sales are recovering actually https://www.shop4tesla.com/en/blogs/news/tesla-china-verkaeufe-juni-2025 https://www.shop4tesla.com/en/blogs/news/tesla-china-verkaeu...
DoesntMatter22 1y ago
[flagged]
- breve 1y ago
  The business is suffering. Tesla has seen a large fall in European EV market share: https://eu-evs.com/marketShare/ALL/Groups/Line/All-time-by-Quarters https://eu-evs.com/marketShare/ALL/Groups/Line/All-time-by-Q... The decline corresponds with Musk interfering in European politics and performing fascist salutes at a political rally. Europeans aren't on board with swasticars. The brand damage Musk has done can only start to be repaired after he leaves Tesla. The bad reputation is going to stick until then.
  - DoesntMatter22 1y ago
    [flagged]
    - neogodless 1y ago
      Did we read the same article? > Tesla sales continued to go down in Europe in the first half of the year. The American EV maker recorded a 33% year-over-year drop in sales from January to June. > From January to June, Tesla sold 108,878 cars in the region, while Volkswagen moved 133,465 EVs, a massive 78% year-over-year increase. Look for the data table and note the heading "Difference from H1 2024" > Overall, the European EV market increased by 24% year-over-year
    - defrost 1y ago
      That's a highly selective read when the data shows Tesla dropping for the past six months, sales declining, even in June, and last month (June) likely not yet having a complete up to date third party picture across the board. The part left out from your statement about June: but that wasn’t enough to end the first half of the year in the first spot. In fact, out of the top five best-selling EV makers in June, Tesla was the only one to see a drop. With 32,605 cars sold, Tesla sales went down by 21% year-over-year in Europe. Meanwhile, Volkswagen went up 9.%, BMW by 16%, Skoda by 189% and Renault by 23%. confirms that Europeans are indeed moving away from "swasticars" in general despite some Europeans still buying a few.

e40 1y ago

Who would have thought that alienating yoyr target market could impact sales?? I hope the purchase of twitter and the subsequent leverage he has on politics and government is worth it. /s

cyberge99 1y ago
He literally alienated BOTH American political constituencies.
darth_avocado 1y ago
You’re not supposed to bite the hand that feeds you? surprised pikachu face
DoesntMatter22 1y ago
Realistically the biggest thing that's impacting their ability to sell their cars is high interest rates. The company still has 37 billion in cash on hand and has a great backlog of products.
- neogodless 1y ago
  https://www.automotivedive.com/news/gm-nissan-ford-tesla-bmw-toyota-vw-q2-2025-sales-tracker/752505/ https://www.automotivedive.com/news/gm-nissan-ford-tesla-bmw... At least in the U.S., the big 3 (Toyota, GM, Ford) all showed Year-over-year growth of automotive sales in Q2. https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/q2-2025-ev-sales/ https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/q2-2025-ev-sales/ Pretty interesting chart to be seen here. Why are interest rates affecting Tesla more than any other OEM?
  - DoesntMatter22 1y ago
    From what you linked, Audi is down 19%, Rivian down 22%, Volkswagen down 20%. Audi and Rivian are both luxury brands and so is Tesla. Rivian is also a higher end car brand and they are getting cooked, down far more than Tesla, and don't suffer any of the Elon stigma. The brands you mentioned are bargain brands. Tesla is a luxury vehicle. Answer seems pretty obvious. Also Tesla is not generally going to sell to apartment renters very often as there typically are not places to charge, so I personally think part of it is that there is a diminishing pool of possibile customers.

GodelNumbering 1y ago

A lot of bad news - Total revenue fell by 12% year-over-year (16% contraction in the core automotive segment) - Operating margin fell to just 4.1% (was 6.3% a year ago) - For a second straight quarter, production significantly outpaced deliveries. Global unsold inventories now at 24 days of supply (was 18 days a year ago) - Free cash flow collapsed by nearly 89.1% to just $146 million source: https://www.signalbloom.ai/news/TSLA/teslas-q2-revenue-drops-12-amid-margin-squeeze-pivots-to-ai-future https://www.signalbloom.ai/news/TSLA/teslas-q2-revenue-drops... (disclaimer: I run this)

financetechbro 1y ago
[flagged]
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
bryanlarsen 1y ago
Despite all the bad news and missteps, Tesla is still profitable with tons of money in the bank. Lots of room to turn things around. The company is not going away any time soon. That trillion dollar market cap, OTOH? That seems super vulnerable.
- wredcoll 1y ago
  How much profit is from carbon credits?
  - akmarinov 1y ago
    $500 million
  - bryanlarsen 1y ago
    Carbon credits aren't profit, they're revenue. You have to ship a car to claim the credits, they're not free money.

akmarinov 1y ago

They have 5 models that they sell, but only 2 are available to order in Europe, lol

7e 1y ago
And 0 models are desired by European buyers.

cyberge99 1y ago

Did I miss the applied part of their primary goal “to procvide affordable vehicles”.

2OEH8eoCRo0 1y ago

When does pumping that stock up go from fiduciary duty to fraud? Musk is bad for the company yet Musk as CEO props up the meme stock. Is it fraud to keep on Musk then?

ceejayoz 1y ago
> When does pumping that stock up go from fiduciary duty to fraud? Musk has already been in hot water more than once for that in the past. https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/13/business/elon-musk-sec-fine-demand https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/13/business/elon-musk-sec-fine-d... "In 2018 the SEC reached a settlement with Musk and Tesla after finding that Musk had deceived investors when he tweeted out that he had “funding secured” to take Tesla private. Under that settlement Tesla and Musk both paid fines of $20 million, and Musk agreed to have his tweets about material events at the company approved by others at Tesla. He also gave up the title of chairman of Tesla, although he retained the CEO title." "In April 2022, Musk disclosed he had purchased 9% of the shares of Twitter ahead of his purchase of the entire company later that year. The SEC sent him a letter wanting to know why he had not disclosed those purchases within 10 days of crossing the 5% threshold of shares owned, as required by securities law."