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The fed pumps out tons of data: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories What is particularly interesting is the spike in

The fed pumps out tons of data: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories What is particularly interesting is the spike in prices of beef. If climate extremes are causing food price shocks one would think that the beef price spike is caused by feed price shocks. Feed prices are down at 2019 levels. And most cattle farmers are bitching that their wholesale prices are down. The fed data here seems to be MOSTLY from the processors and only some of it (the data with lower prices) from the larger market. I dont doubt that there are shocks to the market, but it looks like there is a lot of gouging going on that is a hang over from the pandemic.

disgruntledphd2 1y ago
It's energy plus food. Fertiliser is made from gas (generally) so there's a double hit. First feed prices go up, then fertiliser prices go up, then beef prices go up. We really (as a species) need to get off oil based stuff if we want to reduce inflation over the longer term (and for all the other climate based reasons too).
- zer00eyz 1y ago
  > First feed prices go up, No, thats not what the data says: Corn: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPS012202 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPS012202 Soy: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSOYBUSDM https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSOYBUSDM Both the major inputs to cattle feed are flat, and thats in the face of: Fertilizer is up: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU0652026A https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU0652026A Gas (delivered, by pipe, and were burning this off still so no reason for the price to go up this high) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU000072620 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU000072620
  - disgruntledphd2 1y ago
    You're talking about the US experience, things were very different in Europe (where I'm from). The energy shock was much bigger over here. \ And even your corn link shows a 3.5x increase from 2020 to 2022, which, by definition will increase cattle prices, all other things being equal.
lotsofpulp 1y ago
> What is particularly interesting is the spike in prices of beef. If climate extremes are causing food price shocks one would think that the beef price spike is caused by feed price shocks. This is specious reasoning because the cost of goods sold for beef involves more than just feed. Labor prices, especially at the low end which meat processors typically pay, have increased. The largest publicly listed beef processors are reporting very low single digit profit margins (as do grocery stores) : https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSN/tyson-foods/profit-margins https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSN/tyson-foods/pr... https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/JBSAY/jbs-sa/profit-margins https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/JBSAY/jbs-sa/profi... It is reasonable to assume Cargill and National Beef are in the same boat (since processing beef does not involve some secret technology that would give them a leg up).

disgruntledphd2 1y ago

It's energy plus food. Fertiliser is made from gas (generally) so there's a double hit. First feed prices go up, then fertiliser prices go up, then beef prices go up. We really (as a species) need to get off oil based stuff if we want to reduce inflation over the longer term (and for all the other climate based reasons too).

zer00eyz 1y ago
> First feed prices go up, No, thats not what the data says: Corn: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPS012202 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPS012202 Soy: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSOYBUSDM https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSOYBUSDM Both the major inputs to cattle feed are flat, and thats in the face of: Fertilizer is up: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU0652026A https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU0652026A Gas (delivered, by pipe, and were burning this off still so no reason for the price to go up this high) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU000072620 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU000072620
- disgruntledphd2 1y ago
  You're talking about the US experience, things were very different in Europe (where I'm from). The energy shock was much bigger over here. \ And even your corn link shows a 3.5x increase from 2020 to 2022, which, by definition will increase cattle prices, all other things being equal.

lotsofpulp 1y ago

> What is particularly interesting is the spike in prices of beef. If climate extremes are causing food price shocks one would think that the beef price spike is caused by feed price shocks. This is specious reasoning because the cost of goods sold for beef involves more than just feed. Labor prices, especially at the low end which meat processors typically pay, have increased. The largest publicly listed beef processors are reporting very low single digit profit margins (as do grocery stores) : https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSN/tyson-foods/profit-margins https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSN/tyson-foods/pr... https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/JBSAY/jbs-sa/profit-margins https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/JBSAY/jbs-sa/profi... It is reasonable to assume Cargill and National Beef are in the same boat (since processing beef does not involve some secret technology that would give them a leg up).