5 ms·
Impressive prediction, especially pre-ChatGPT. Compare to Gary Marcus 3 months ago: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/reports-of-llms-mastering-math-have https:
by exegeist 1y ago
Impressive prediction, especially pre-ChatGPT. Compare to Gary Marcus 3 months ago: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/reports-of-llms-mastering-math-have https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/reports-of-llms-mastering-...
We may certainly hope Eliezer's other predictions don't prove so well-calibrated.
- rafaelero 1y agoGary Marcus is so systematically and overconfidently wrong that I wonder why we keep talking about this clown.
- qoez 1y agoPeople just give attention to people making surprising bold counter narrative predictions but don't give them any attention when they're wrong.
- keeda 1y agoPeople like him and Zitron do serve a useful purpose in balancing the hype from the other side, which, while justified to a great extent, is often a bit too overwhelming.
- Philpax 1y agoBeing wrong in the other direction doesn't mean you've found a great balance, it just means you've found a new way to be wrong.
- dcre 1y agoI do think Gary Marcus says a lot of wrong stuff about LLMs but I don’t see anything too egregious in that post. He’s just describing the results they got a few months ago.
- m3kw9 1y agoHe definitely cannot use the original arguments from then ChatGPT arrived, he's a perennial goal post shifter.
- causal 1y agoThese numbers feel kind of meaningless without any work showing how he got to 16%
- shuckles 1y agoMy understanding is that Eliezer more or less thinks it's over for humans.
- 0xDEAFBEAD 1y agoHe hasn't given up though: https://xcancel.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1922710969785917691#m https://xcancel.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1922710969785917691#m