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Good rule of thumb: When everybody talks about bubbles while rates are going down, it's a good time to invest. When everybody's talking about investing and rate

Good rule of thumb: When everybody talks about bubbles while rates are going down, it's a good time to invest. When everybody's talking about investing and rates are going up, it's a good time to drop out. Right now we are in the former timeframe. As long as cash remains cheap, there is no good reason from a financial market perspective for this to not go on. Is it sustainable indefinitely? No. But almost nothing in our current economy is. AI nowadays just generates easy clicks for opinion pieces like this looking at a single data point. That doesn't mean there is any reason to act on it or even just to read too much into it.

jimbokun 1y ago
Better rule of thumb: have an automated investment strategy that takes a set percentage of your income every paycheck and invest it, regardless of current rates or what anyone's saying.
- sigmoid10 1y ago
  Note that this applies to vanilla investing, like index funds. You can easily automate that if you want. If you're really just looking for modest stable yields, you may as well invest in bonds right now. The US GOV 12 month is at >4%. With inflation significantly below, that's like free money (if you've been an adult in the 2010s you'll know what I mean). But don't expect to make a lot of money in less than a generational timeframe either way.
  - jimbokun 1y ago
    To make A LOT of money you probably need to start a successful business. Looking to take on more risk in equity investments is just as likely to end up with you going broke as it is to get outsize returns.
    - sigmoid10 1y ago
      >Looking to take on more risk in equity investments is just as likely to end up with you going broke as it is to get outsize returns. You should look at the chances of your business becoming that successful. They are equally slim. And you have a lot more personal exposure if your business fails vs. if one fails that you only invested your money in and not your time and health.
- bdangubic 1y ago
  this can (will, given enough years) get you rich but it won't get you wealthy :)
BenGosub 1y ago
I think that at the moment the One Big Beautiful Bill ensures that the spending spree will continue and the world will stay afloat with cheap money so I would assume that we are about to see the last part of the bubble. But, I wouldn't bet on my assumptions.

jimbokun 1y ago

Better rule of thumb: have an automated investment strategy that takes a set percentage of your income every paycheck and invest it, regardless of current rates or what anyone's saying.

sigmoid10 1y ago
Note that this applies to vanilla investing, like index funds. You can easily automate that if you want. If you're really just looking for modest stable yields, you may as well invest in bonds right now. The US GOV 12 month is at >4%. With inflation significantly below, that's like free money (if you've been an adult in the 2010s you'll know what I mean). But don't expect to make a lot of money in less than a generational timeframe either way.
- jimbokun 1y ago
  To make A LOT of money you probably need to start a successful business. Looking to take on more risk in equity investments is just as likely to end up with you going broke as it is to get outsize returns.
  - sigmoid10 1y ago
    >Looking to take on more risk in equity investments is just as likely to end up with you going broke as it is to get outsize returns. You should look at the chances of your business becoming that successful. They are equally slim. And you have a lot more personal exposure if your business fails vs. if one fails that you only invested your money in and not your time and health.
bdangubic 1y ago
this can (will, given enough years) get you rich but it won't get you wealthy :)

BenGosub 1y ago

I think that at the moment the One Big Beautiful Bill ensures that the spending spree will continue and the world will stay afloat with cheap money so I would assume that we are about to see the last part of the bubble. But, I wouldn't bet on my assumptions.