3 ms·

Scarcity also creates automation and efficiency pressure. You either get more of that human resource, or you make it so you use less of it, productivity increas

Scarcity also creates automation and efficiency pressure. You either get more of that human resource, or you make it so you use less of it, productivity increases also allow for the resources used to make more money without increasing project costs. This is also a very boom/bust industry, so the 2008 bust washed a lot of people out, especially juniors who would be experienced seniors today. A union is not going to protect labor from a building bust, they will stop hiring and the pipeline stalls.

toomuchtodo 1y ago
There is a housing shortage of between 3.5M and 12M units; there will be no bust for at least the next decade, as housing production rate dropped substantially after the 2008 global financial crisis and did not recover. (typically, union workers go on unemployment during slow periods; this includes electrical linemen/journeymen, automotive, pipe fitters, etc based on first hand conversations with union tradespeople in my examples) Housing Supply and Housing Affordability - https://www.nber.org/papers/w33694 https://www.nber.org/papers/w33694 - April 2025 The Housing Industry Never Recovered From the Great Recession - https://prospect.org/infrastructure/housing/2024-12-11-housing-industry-never-recovered-great-recession/ https://prospect.org/infrastructure/housing/2024-12-11-housi... - December 11, 2024 APM Marketplace: In an uncertain housing market, home builders face a range of challenges - https://www.marketplace.org/story/2024/11/26/in-an-uncertain-housing-market-home-builders-face-a-range-of-challenges#in-an-uncertain-housing-market-home-builders-face-a-range-of-challenges https://www.marketplace.org/story/2024/11/26/in-an-uncertain... - November 26, 2024 U.S. Housing Shortage: Everything, Everywhere, All at Once - https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/perspectives/us-housing-shortage https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/perspectives... - October 31st, 2022 Fannie Mae: The U.S. Housing Shortage from a Local Perspective - https://www.fanniemae.com/media/45106/display https://www.fanniemae.com/media/45106/display - October 2022
- zer00eyz 1y ago
  > There is a housing shortage of between 3.5M and 12M units; The problem with this stat is that the historic data does not support it: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RSAHORUSQ156S https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RSAHORUSQ156S The supply is just fine, more so with a declining population, how we use housing has changed dramatically. https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2023/06/more-than-a-quarter-all-households-have-one-person.html https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2023/06/more-than-a-q... U.S. Housing Shortage: Everything, Everywhere, All at Once: that you called out states "While the United States does indeed have a national shortage of affordable housing, every state and city's path to addressing it is relatively unique, and the tools and tactics used to create badly needed new housing supply will have to be tailored." This is a gross understatement of the issue. The problem is voters. No one will vote in more housing, housing benefits for others or more affordable housing. Because the people who vote own homes and go into the voting booth and protect their own interests and assets: https://www.route-fifty.com/management/2022/08/problem-homeowners-being-more-likely-vote/376521/ https://www.route-fifty.com/management/2022/08/problem-homeo... . There isnt a law about having to be a landholder to vote but there is a very strong correlation between the two. Planing and zoning is hyper local, hyper political and very active. This is why mixed use zoning is harder to find, you can't run a garage out of your garage. The is why the "missing middle" is a thing in America. This is why "corporate ownership" of housing wont get fixed (it is a hyper local issue and the people who would show up to vote against it are the same ones whos property prices are being propped up by it).

toomuchtodo 1y ago

There is a housing shortage of between 3.5M and 12M units; there will be no bust for at least the next decade, as housing production rate dropped substantially after the 2008 global financial crisis and did not recover. (typically, union workers go on unemployment during slow periods; this includes electrical linemen/journeymen, automotive, pipe fitters, etc based on first hand conversations with union tradespeople in my examples) Housing Supply and Housing Affordability - https://www.nber.org/papers/w33694 https://www.nber.org/papers/w33694 - April 2025 The Housing Industry Never Recovered From the Great Recession - https://prospect.org/infrastructure/housing/2024-12-11-housing-industry-never-recovered-great-recession/ https://prospect.org/infrastructure/housing/2024-12-11-housi... - December 11, 2024 APM Marketplace: In an uncertain housing market, home builders face a range of challenges - https://www.marketplace.org/story/2024/11/26/in-an-uncertain-housing-market-home-builders-face-a-range-of-challenges#in-an-uncertain-housing-market-home-builders-face-a-range-of-challenges https://www.marketplace.org/story/2024/11/26/in-an-uncertain... - November 26, 2024 U.S. Housing Shortage: Everything, Everywhere, All at Once - https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/perspectives/us-housing-shortage https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/perspectives... - October 31st, 2022 Fannie Mae: The U.S. Housing Shortage from a Local Perspective - https://www.fanniemae.com/media/45106/display https://www.fanniemae.com/media/45106/display - October 2022

zer00eyz 1y ago
> There is a housing shortage of between 3.5M and 12M units; The problem with this stat is that the historic data does not support it: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RSAHORUSQ156S https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RSAHORUSQ156S The supply is just fine, more so with a declining population, how we use housing has changed dramatically. https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2023/06/more-than-a-quarter-all-households-have-one-person.html https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2023/06/more-than-a-q... U.S. Housing Shortage: Everything, Everywhere, All at Once: that you called out states "While the United States does indeed have a national shortage of affordable housing, every state and city's path to addressing it is relatively unique, and the tools and tactics used to create badly needed new housing supply will have to be tailored." This is a gross understatement of the issue. The problem is voters. No one will vote in more housing, housing benefits for others or more affordable housing. Because the people who vote own homes and go into the voting booth and protect their own interests and assets: https://www.route-fifty.com/management/2022/08/problem-homeowners-being-more-likely-vote/376521/ https://www.route-fifty.com/management/2022/08/problem-homeo... . There isnt a law about having to be a landholder to vote but there is a very strong correlation between the two. Planing and zoning is hyper local, hyper political and very active. This is why mixed use zoning is harder to find, you can't run a garage out of your garage. The is why the "missing middle" is a thing in America. This is why "corporate ownership" of housing wont get fixed (it is a hyper local issue and the people who would show up to vote against it are the same ones whos property prices are being propped up by it).