3 ms·

Lots of assertions in the article, but the only fact I see is that new college grads looking for work had a 6.6% unemployment rate over the last 12 months, alon

by paxys 1y ago

Lots of assertions in the article, but the only fact I see is that new college grads looking for work had a 6.6% unemployment rate over the last 12 months, along with a hand-wavey > about the highest level in a decade—excluding the pandemic unemployment spike Why "about"? What was this number 5 years ago? 10 years ago? 20 years ago? During the dotcom bubble? The housing crisis? An actual recent crisis (the pandemic) is conveniently excluded from the comparison for some reason. Weird for the WSJ to declare an "unemployment crisis" based on a handful of anecdotes and no actual data.

HPsquared 1y ago
Bear in mind they've already lost 4 years of employment by taking the degree.
deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
kevintb 1y ago
I think the thing that’s unusual and backed up by data is that being a college grad right now has higher unemployment rate than the total average unemployment rate. This has never been the case in history until recently.
- jasonfarnon 1y ago
  well according to the article: "Moreover, the gap between the unemployment rate for these young graduates and the broader population became its widest in about 35 years of comparable New York Fed analysis."
conductr 1y ago
Unemployment is a loaded statistic anyway. I'm going to assume that they are working but just not in a 'career' job. They're likely working in a restaurant or in retail which is technically employed. My qualitative view on the job market right now is this line holds true > But it is a bad time to be a job seeker—especially if you are young.
- what 1y ago
  If they’re working at a restaurant or retail, they’re not counted as unemployed? Unless they’re working under the table.
  - conductr 1y ago
    They're underemployed, but employed. So unemployment remains rosy.
- astrange 1y ago
  Unemployment comes from surveys (the CPS) where they call people and ask if they're employed. So the answer to questions like "do Uber drivers count as employed" is, it's up to them. There's other questions about full-time or part-time, or multiple jobs. (Multiple jobs are interesting because you'd think they'd belong to overworked underpaid poor people. But they're not really associated with that, and they go down in recessions since that's when you have no jobs.)
- intended 1y ago
  Unemployment here is being used in its capacity as a trend line. It’s not loaded in the sense you are considering. From what I recall, recent graduates would not be working in retail, but currently looking for roles.
- pjc50 1y ago
  > I'm going to assume that they are working but just not in a 'career' job This kind of attitude - I don't like your statistics so I'm going to reject them and replace them with imagination - makes technocratic government very difficult.
  - conductr 1y ago
    I'm not making blind assumptions. I've studies unemployment statistics and aware of how they exclude things and can lag and generally are kind of rig the calculation. I'm just here making a passing comment, so I'm not going to lay all the evidence out there with citations, but feel free to have a LLM tell you all about it. I'm also aware there is another statistic called underemployment which is what I described, so no, I did not replace anything with my imagination. I just don't have any source of data to say exactly what is what right now, but based on a lot of signals I'm seeing (knowing a few recent grads, knowing how many of my mid-career peers are not hiring and actually looking for additional efficiencies, having a few friends finding it impossible to find work even with experience, etc) - I feel/assume the stat as reported is not telling the whole story and the original article was trying to shed light on what's going on. Sometimes boots on the ground conversations is the best way to know the truth today versus just looking at data/stats.
ndiddy 1y ago
Looks like when you set the graph to annual average (which you have to do to avoid spikes each year when everyone graduates), the new college grad unemployment rate is in fact the highest it's been since 2014 when you take out 2020 and 2021. It's higher than it was in 2002, but lower than it was during the housing crisis. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CGBD2024# https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CGBD2024#
brailsafe 1y ago
Interesting to read this from the other side of the border on the Canadian side. Our numbers definitely support the anecdotes that suggest youth unemployment rates are terrible, but if anything I think they obfuscate how bad the problem might be. Lived experience and the real anecdotes from people I know in the cohort lead me to believe there's going to be major downstream economic breaking points some time in the next few years. Additionally it's funny to see the term "housing crisis" be applied to the past rather than the present. If that means 2008, we tend to call it the 2008 financial collapse, but our response to it created the current conditions of what Canadians would now call the "housing crisis"
- api 1y ago
  The housing affordability crisis isn’t a crisis if you own a home you bought in 1980, and older homeowners vote in much higher numbers.
  - potato3732842 1y ago
    >and older homeowners vote in much higher numbers. Because they're stuck with this fairly illiquid asset and therefore have a very big incentive to exert their inconsequential shred of control over the institutions that more or less unilaterally control their experience owning that asset.
  - AbstractH24 1y ago
    Something I’ve recently started to consider is how an aging population will impact this over time. Unlike the 60s and 70s the number of people coming of age now and in the years to come is smaller than older people (unless we get liberal with immigration). How will that impact the future direction of society?
    - brailsafe 1y ago
      In Canada, the working age population is massively subsidizing the older generation already, while getting fucked by them on the cost of shelter, and from every direction on the cost of basic necessities compared to income. There's fewer working age people per old age security and CPP recipient than ever, and it's our federal government's largest line items. An average 30 y.o in a population centre probably makes substantially less then the average retiree would have ever made, pays them more rent they'd ever have imagined, and pays most of their taxes directly into that hypothetical landlord's pocket. It's crazy and idk wth is going to happen because also there's almost no jobs available or clear upward mobility/stability, all of that shit went out the window long ago unless you're in a trade union already with a decade of experience, or just lucky. [0] https://www.gensqueeze.ca/analysis_2023_federal_budget https://www.gensqueeze.ca/analysis_2023_federal_budget
downrightmike 1y ago
The numbers are being cooked
eej71 1y ago
I can only say that this direclty matches the experience of my two college graduates. First kid gradudated end of 2023, and I played an active role in helping him finding jobs to apply for. Applied to easily 200+ roles. Many of them seemed like spam or junk listings that fullfilled some regulatory obligation. It wasn't that the kid got back a no thanks, just silence. He eventually did find a job, but it was almost a bit of dumb luck that something came together. CS degree for those curious. Second kid graduated May 2025. Same boat. We apply to everything that is a match or is even a bit of a reach, because why not. The reply rate is terrible. It's not a no. Just silence. He did score a virtual interview. But so far, no answer there either. Nuclear Engineering degree with this one. So more specialized, but fewer graduates... so... maybe easier than CS these days? I dunno. Makes me nervous for those who are further away from these STEM fields. Kid #3 is still working their way through the system. We shall see how this plays out.
- sevensor 1y ago
  I’ve worked with a bunch of Nuke Es. Smart, interesting people with strong technical skills. They’re not working in the field though. If you really want to be around nuclear reactors, you’re much more likely to get there if you join the navy.
  - whatshisface 1y ago
    Nuclear engineers don't work around nuclear reactors, they work in offices.

by paxys 1y ago

HPsquared 1y ago

Bear in mind they've already lost 4 years of employment by taking the degree.

deleted 1y ago

[deleted]

kevintb 1y ago

I think the thing that’s unusual and backed up by data is that being a college grad right now has higher unemployment rate than the total average unemployment rate. This has never been the case in history until recently.

jasonfarnon 1y ago
well according to the article: "Moreover, the gap between the unemployment rate for these young graduates and the broader population became its widest in about 35 years of comparable New York Fed analysis."

conductr 1y ago

Unemployment is a loaded statistic anyway. I'm going to assume that they are working but just not in a 'career' job. They're likely working in a restaurant or in retail which is technically employed. My qualitative view on the job market right now is this line holds true > But it is a bad time to be a job seeker—especially if you are young.

what 1y ago
If they’re working at a restaurant or retail, they’re not counted as unemployed? Unless they’re working under the table.
- conductr 1y ago
  They're underemployed, but employed. So unemployment remains rosy.
astrange 1y ago
Unemployment comes from surveys (the CPS) where they call people and ask if they're employed. So the answer to questions like "do Uber drivers count as employed" is, it's up to them. There's other questions about full-time or part-time, or multiple jobs. (Multiple jobs are interesting because you'd think they'd belong to overworked underpaid poor people. But they're not really associated with that, and they go down in recessions since that's when you have no jobs.)
intended 1y ago
Unemployment here is being used in its capacity as a trend line. It’s not loaded in the sense you are considering. From what I recall, recent graduates would not be working in retail, but currently looking for roles.
pjc50 1y ago
> I'm going to assume that they are working but just not in a 'career' job This kind of attitude - I don't like your statistics so I'm going to reject them and replace them with imagination - makes technocratic government very difficult.
- conductr 1y ago
  I'm not making blind assumptions. I've studies unemployment statistics and aware of how they exclude things and can lag and generally are kind of rig the calculation. I'm just here making a passing comment, so I'm not going to lay all the evidence out there with citations, but feel free to have a LLM tell you all about it. I'm also aware there is another statistic called underemployment which is what I described, so no, I did not replace anything with my imagination. I just don't have any source of data to say exactly what is what right now, but based on a lot of signals I'm seeing (knowing a few recent grads, knowing how many of my mid-career peers are not hiring and actually looking for additional efficiencies, having a few friends finding it impossible to find work even with experience, etc) - I feel/assume the stat as reported is not telling the whole story and the original article was trying to shed light on what's going on. Sometimes boots on the ground conversations is the best way to know the truth today versus just looking at data/stats.

ndiddy 1y ago

Looks like when you set the graph to annual average (which you have to do to avoid spikes each year when everyone graduates), the new college grad unemployment rate is in fact the highest it's been since 2014 when you take out 2020 and 2021. It's higher than it was in 2002, but lower than it was during the housing crisis. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CGBD2024# https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CGBD2024#

brailsafe 1y ago

Interesting to read this from the other side of the border on the Canadian side. Our numbers definitely support the anecdotes that suggest youth unemployment rates are terrible, but if anything I think they obfuscate how bad the problem might be. Lived experience and the real anecdotes from people I know in the cohort lead me to believe there's going to be major downstream economic breaking points some time in the next few years. Additionally it's funny to see the term "housing crisis" be applied to the past rather than the present. If that means 2008, we tend to call it the 2008 financial collapse, but our response to it created the current conditions of what Canadians would now call the "housing crisis"

api 1y ago
The housing affordability crisis isn’t a crisis if you own a home you bought in 1980, and older homeowners vote in much higher numbers.
- potato3732842 1y ago
  >and older homeowners vote in much higher numbers. Because they're stuck with this fairly illiquid asset and therefore have a very big incentive to exert their inconsequential shred of control over the institutions that more or less unilaterally control their experience owning that asset.
- AbstractH24 1y ago
  Something I’ve recently started to consider is how an aging population will impact this over time. Unlike the 60s and 70s the number of people coming of age now and in the years to come is smaller than older people (unless we get liberal with immigration). How will that impact the future direction of society?
  - brailsafe 1y ago
    In Canada, the working age population is massively subsidizing the older generation already, while getting fucked by them on the cost of shelter, and from every direction on the cost of basic necessities compared to income. There's fewer working age people per old age security and CPP recipient than ever, and it's our federal government's largest line items. An average 30 y.o in a population centre probably makes substantially less then the average retiree would have ever made, pays them more rent they'd ever have imagined, and pays most of their taxes directly into that hypothetical landlord's pocket. It's crazy and idk wth is going to happen because also there's almost no jobs available or clear upward mobility/stability, all of that shit went out the window long ago unless you're in a trade union already with a decade of experience, or just lucky. [0] https://www.gensqueeze.ca/analysis_2023_federal_budget https://www.gensqueeze.ca/analysis_2023_federal_budget

downrightmike 1y ago

The numbers are being cooked

eej71 1y ago

I can only say that this direclty matches the experience of my two college graduates. First kid gradudated end of 2023, and I played an active role in helping him finding jobs to apply for. Applied to easily 200+ roles. Many of them seemed like spam or junk listings that fullfilled some regulatory obligation. It wasn't that the kid got back a no thanks, just silence. He eventually did find a job, but it was almost a bit of dumb luck that something came together. CS degree for those curious. Second kid graduated May 2025. Same boat. We apply to everything that is a match or is even a bit of a reach, because why not. The reply rate is terrible. It's not a no. Just silence. He did score a virtual interview. But so far, no answer there either. Nuclear Engineering degree with this one. So more specialized, but fewer graduates... so... maybe easier than CS these days? I dunno. Makes me nervous for those who are further away from these STEM fields. Kid #3 is still working their way through the system. We shall see how this plays out.

sevensor 1y ago
I’ve worked with a bunch of Nuke Es. Smart, interesting people with strong technical skills. They’re not working in the field though. If you really want to be around nuclear reactors, you’re much more likely to get there if you join the navy.
- whatshisface 1y ago
  Nuclear engineers don't work around nuclear reactors, they work in offices.